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Shane Jocelyn, CFA

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  • CPI Remains Tame: Names to Play the Trend [View article]
    Inflation in the form of CPI is clearly not a threat but what is more important and dangerous is that of asset inflation driven by excess and renewed leverage and money supply stemmed from fed base rates of 0%.

    Greenspan's negligence to overlook the fake wealth creation of over-borrowed capital that built such instruments as CDO's and CLO's must not be recreated. This is the flip side of the argument for the Fed to begin raising the base rate - there is more to rising prices and justified rate hikes than CPI.
    Mar 19, 2010. 07:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials' Rock-Bottom Valuations: Outlook Is Bright [View article]
    A significant threat to financials is that of policy tightening. To borrow at 0.25% and lend at 5%+ results in a blockbuster business model. But to say this is a sustainable reality in the long term is irresponsible. Admittedly, there will be an extended time with low rates but the market is forward looking and all one has to do is look at the upward sloping yield curve for proof of expectations.
    Mar 17, 2010. 07:51 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Now Overvalued on Long Term Basis [View article]
    Fundamentals may be the long term king but traders and investors decide the demand and supply which coherently depicts prices. It appears now that sentiment and yield seeking trumps any other considerations. The $1M question is what will change this outlook?
    Mar 17, 2010. 06:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: Prepare for a Sell-Off [View article]
    The unanswered question here is what is going to be the catalyst to drive down the market? We have navigated through two sovereign debt scares in the form of Dubai and Greece and bond vigilantes have been fought off by the politicians words of support.

    Jobs were substantially good in the midst of mother nature turning the East coast of the US into Lapland and its hard to pinpoint what is going to be a hampering force against equities. Perhaps withdrawal of low rates/stimulus but as we saw yesterday, that threat has been curtailed [for now].
    Mar 17, 2010. 05:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finder's Economy: The Next Big Thing Online [View article]
    People like to window shop the same way that people like to browse sites like Ebay Amazon. The idea that this will be delegated for a fee to a complete stranger will jeopardise the value of one's own privacy.

    This feels a bit like Plato's Republic where principle and theory may be inherent but reality and human nature prevent inaction.
    Mar 16, 2010. 07:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Bumblebee Moment May Be Over [View article]
    Japan has defied the odds of both bullish and bearish takes on the businesses and economy. The fundamentals are so disjointed with reality and have been for the last twenty years that the new normal has moulded itself into an abnormal setting.

    I have fallen into the trap of being extortionately bullish on some great Japanese companies while being a bear on the economy and the Yen. However, it is disconcerting to see people with the same mindset who have spent half their careers on research while their payout has been nil and all they can state is, "It will happen eventually". Well - eventually we all end up in the same place!
    Mar 16, 2010. 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: This Year the Dragon Slows [View article]
    The Asian financial crisis was a result of abnormal economic and fiscal stimulation frustrated by the manipulation of pegging the domestic currency to the dollar. It is unhealthy and nerving to go against the law of demand and supply. China's politicians as well as the currency markets will soon find this our for themselves.
    Mar 16, 2010. 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the SEC Model Is Broken [View article]
    The inherent problem lies in how the SEC implements its regulation. It is entirely rule based which is the heart of the problem.

    The FSA in Britain have adopted a principle approach. The ideal result is for all financiers to be fully aware of their morally subjective approach to doing business. Instead of looking at word for word rules and taking a law degree to get around these rules, the imposition of self regulation will mean you have all the smart guys making sure they are in line with the guided principles.
    Mar 16, 2010. 06:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-In Vehicles: The First Great Fraud of the New Millennium [View article]
    Unlike the technology takeover of cultural, industrial and social life - the mass production engineering dynamics create an unrealistic perception that battery makers will be able to fully transform a market segment as big as the auto-mobile one.

    It is inevitable that the battery makers will need the big auto's and once they showcase efficiency in a good product, it may be a reciprocal need.
    Mar 16, 2010. 06:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased National Productivity: Better for Investors Than for Workers [View article]
    Productivity is a positive attribute within an economy. It means getting more for less. However, it should arise for the right reasons. Laying off half the security guards of a prison may increase productivity by 50% but there are much more serious repercussions having less people do more. Namely quality and standard of work.

    The positive side is that a raging productivity figure outlines that employers are pushing workers hard and there comes a breaking point where there is too much work whereupon renewed hiring takes place - jobs back into the economy.
    Mar 5, 2010. 04:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Hedge Fund Managers Cleaning Up Back-End Operations [View article]
    We don't like to admit that materiality is significant but it is. It depicts your entire lifestyle from your house, which college you send your kids to and maybe even your spouse! (?)

    Investing this capital with a fund manager is entrusting your entire life and this deserves every kind of transparent and protective operations and risk. Unfortunately, the latter is never black and white - if you had taken colossal risk in March 2009, you are a hero but if you had you done so one year earlier it would have been the end of a career.
    Mar 5, 2010. 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Overview: Remain Cautious, Focus on Wealth Preservation [View article]
    Private debt was stacked higher and higher throughout the first half of the last decade while government policies and low rates provided the limitless step ladder to add to the debt burden. Now, we have seen a transformation of roles whereby investors are funding the entire yield curve regardless of what percent coupons offer.

    Was it wreck-less to allow Fannie May and Freddie Mac to issue countless mortgages at low rates? And is it now wreck-less to be funding billions of dollars of treasuries at low rates? My guess is yes to both questions but that is how the system is manifesting itself.
    Mar 5, 2010. 03:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greece / EU Ballet Enters Act III [View article]
    Europe's biggest challenge is a unilateral proactive approach to solving problems within the Union. Unlike the US government having domineering leadership from Washington, there is no forceful leverage that the EU has over the countries which represent it. If anything, it is the other way around whereby countries like Germany dictate terms of the EU.

    Therefore, we find ourselves coming up with one of the biggest tests yet on unity and conformity. Getting to a point where the budget deficit exceeds limits on EU law is a primary failure but perhaps one can right the wrongs in the coming weeks and months?
    Mar 4, 2010. 08:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Previewing Friday's Employment Report [View article]
    Non-farm is a data figure which always headlines the ticker. Economists rightly hype the importance of job growth towards sustained growth. Should we fail to see trending top line growth in revenues, the underlying strength from restocking human resources/inventory will fade. What's more - job growth could easily be renamed "Employer Confidence" for the rest of the year.
    Mar 4, 2010. 05:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Of Credit Ratings, Sovereign Risk and Semi-Sovereign Risk [View article]
    Credit ratings are the forward looking instruments that provide an outlook and establish a conditional health of the underlying in the present sense. A compass can foretell the current directional route to a shipping captain but it will sure as hell not predict what storms are likely to rear themselves the very next day.

    Sovereign default circulates around sustainability and servicing. I suggest we take all major countries within the capital markets and peg a graph of all the bid to cover ratio's (measure of demand for debt auctions) and see which countries showcase a trending decline in demand. Depending on your moral ethics, you can join the bond vigilantes and decide to profit on others misfortune?
    Feb 26, 2010. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment