Shane Zhao

Shane Zhao
Contributor since: 2012
The next catalyst is the Q3 earnings report. It will be a "do or die" day for the upward momentum.
The finale is going to be as good as Breaking Bad's.
Knock on doors, It is trick or treating time for BBRY.
Blackberry is the best, so awesome.
Ted,
What do you know about AEZS? Compare to DVAX, AEZS has a lot more in the pipeline. I am watching closely on both companies.
BB10 is the best, so awesome.
Ted, what's your everage price on this?
Fairfax can eventually back out from the bid using due diligence as an excuse. That will not demage their reputation. Plus, who cares about reputation, it is a business about money, someone has to win and some someone has to lose. As long as the rules allowed, Fairfax can play bluff, cat&mouse as they want, just don't fall in the trap.
Good Article. The whole thing is a poker game, but they have made the bluff looked so obvious. Likely, no one will go forward to place another bid on the company. The only party that is losing is BBRY shareholders.
Because they have something worse prepared for 27th
"I would get a Z10 over an iPhone any day." Then go get one. BBRY lovers, now it is time to show your support, no more "would,could" empty words.
perfect business? $15 in 12 months? You got to be kidding me. April fool was 3 months ago.
USA filed law sue against S&P is a warning to Fitch and Moody's.
Team Obama is really saying, Don't you guys mess with the US credit rating. If you do, just look at S&P. We will mess you up.
Just so you guys know, the CEO Thorsten Heins sold 65,787 shares at $18.17 last Friday Jan 25th. a few cents short of 52 weeks high. 40% of his holdings.
dwaynewade3,
Thank you for the comment. I agree the T-Bill will remain as the safe haven for a long time as there is nothing else can replace it. On a side note, China has been quietly reducing its holdings of US treasuries from 1.3 trillion (June 2011) to 1.16 trillion (June 2012). Japan jumped in and purchased US treasuries in the last 12 months, which made up for China's lack of interest.
I want to warn equity investors about another possible surprise downgrade. Last year, S&P caught people off guard. It may happen again early next year. Last summer I bought FAZ calls and wanted to cash in for the debt ceiling drama, but the downgrade paid off nicely on my FAZ calls, which was a pleasant surprise.
Groupon is a great way for brand new businesses to advertise themselves, but once the new businesses get their names out, they will not use Groupon again.
It is also an effective tool for clearing unwanted inventories, but it does little to help small business retaining customers. In order for a business to survive, they have to have committed customers, not bargain hunters who will not return until the business offers another bargain.
The problem with Groupon is they are not making any profit after all expenses. The management team needs to find a way to cut expenses.
AplhaFan,
Thank you for sharing your view. The article was submitted a few days ago. I know news came out in the last couple days, such as rumors about changing CEO.
I will change my entry points as new information surfaces. These entry points are just where I am willing to risk my money. just like what I wrote in the article, it is quite possible I may miss the boat.
I am sure all Groupon investors have their own entry points. Stick with what you have planned as long as you did enough analysis.
Amaradio15,
Groupon goods is no different from the business model in Overstock.com. Groupon Goods is a great revenue boosting business, but its profit margin is way too thin.
E Nuff Sed,
Cash is important for a company, no doubt. On the other hand, a company has to make profits to survive. about half of Groupon's cash balance is waiting to be paid to merchant payables. It may look like a cash generating machine, it is only because all the coupon deals they sell end up as cash or equivalents on balance sheet. I think how much of the cash they get to eventually keep is more important.
Daryle, always thorough, always making the right points.
Great article.
I.V. thanks for using my QEternity.
I don't think people can prove a correlation between unemployment rate and purchasing MBS. not making sense at all.
But the market will still be Bullish in the next few days or even longer. Totally agree with Kyle about running with the bull.
What we are witnessing is a fast buildup of inflation in the midterm, it may get built up much faster than expected. In the long run, It kind of reminds me the 80s, where inflatoin was above 12% and you pay 16-20% on mtg. but, hey, who cares about that. it is all about nothing blows up when big Ben is in the office.
QEternity
We shall call it "QEternity"
Tea Party? movement?
just look at how much change people got from Occupy Wall Street. Nothing!Nobody cares about the middle class.
Since it is open-ended, My understanding is that there will be no more QEs, because this one is going to be there FOREVER,
"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability."
On second thought, the $40B/m may not be there forever, because there will be $90B/m, $150/m.
Get use to it, don't run against the upcoming bull. It seems like the bull will keep on running for awhile. It doesn't mean QE is good for the economy or the people. but the market likes it.
QE3 is counter-productive at this point. As high commodity price will lead to high food & energy price, which results in slowing down the consumer consumption.
Buying more MBS will also encourage reckless lending from the bank. Now there is a place to sell that junk again.
There is a even bigger bubble than 2008 underway.
Bill,
now, mark zuckerberg promised he will not sell his shares for 12 months. The impact of the lock-up expiretion will be reduced by a bit, but what will be the share size for the upcoming Oct, Nov lock-up (minus Zuckerberg shares)? I wonder how much his promise can affect the market.
SZ
After the big drop on Aug 14th, from now on, it will be a slow killing for Groupon shareholders. I expect us to see 3-4% drop every day until under $5.
The broad of Groupon has to make changes to the upper management soon.
When Mason went to wait the table, I thought he knew that they will beat the street expectation. I took that as a sign of confidence. Now, the number came out, nothing he did made much sense, and I think he is not competent of leading this firm.
Overstock.com was a $70 stock at one point... It is trading at $8, 10% of its peak. ironically , we are not too far from trading at 10% of Groupon high of $31. We only need two days like today to be trading at $3.
What's your strategy with your long position, George?
4% growth in revenue vs Q1. conservative Q3 forecast. good indication of business not growing. If they did not include the Groupon Goods 100% revenue recorded vs partial revenue of merchant coupon, the number would be much worse.
Even the profit beats the expectation, but the profit can be easily manipulated by accounting.
If they did not include the Groupon Goods 100% revenue recorded vs partial revenue of merchant coupon, the number would be much worse.
sell when there is a short squeeze rally as many shorts will cover under $5.