Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Shane Zhao  

View Shane Zhao's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Real Concern Is U.S. Credit Rating Downgrades [View article]
    dwaynewade3,
    Thank you for the comment. I agree the T-Bill will remain as the safe haven for a long time as there is nothing else can replace it. On a side note, China has been quietly reducing its holdings of US treasuries from 1.3 trillion (June 2011) to 1.16 trillion (June 2012). Japan jumped in and purchased US treasuries in the last 12 months, which made up for China's lack of interest.

    I want to warn equity investors about another possible surprise downgrade. Last year, S&P caught people off guard. It may happen again early next year. Last summer I bought FAZ calls and wanted to cash in for the debt ceiling drama, but the downgrade paid off nicely on my FAZ calls, which was a pleasant surprise.
    Dec 5, 2012. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Entry Points For Groupon [View article]
    Groupon is a great way for brand new businesses to advertise themselves, but once the new businesses get their names out, they will not use Groupon again.
    It is also an effective tool for clearing unwanted inventories, but it does little to help small business retaining customers. In order for a business to survive, they have to have committed customers, not bargain hunters who will not return until the business offers another bargain.
    The problem with Groupon is they are not making any profit after all expenses. The management team needs to find a way to cut expenses.
    Dec 1, 2012. 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Entry Points For Groupon [View article]
    AplhaFan,
    Thank you for sharing your view. The article was submitted a few days ago. I know news came out in the last couple days, such as rumors about changing CEO.
    I will change my entry points as new information surfaces. These entry points are just where I am willing to risk my money. just like what I wrote in the article, it is quite possible I may miss the boat.

    I am sure all Groupon investors have their own entry points. Stick with what you have planned as long as you did enough analysis.
    Nov 30, 2012. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Entry Points For Groupon [View article]
    Amaradio15,
    Groupon goods is no different from the business model in Overstock.com. Groupon Goods is a great revenue boosting business, but its profit margin is way too thin.
    Nov 30, 2012. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Entry Points For Groupon [View article]
    E Nuff Sed,
    Cash is important for a company, no doubt. On the other hand, a company has to make profits to survive. about half of Groupon's cash balance is waiting to be paid to merchant payables. It may look like a cash generating machine, it is only because all the coupon deals they sell end up as cash or equivalents on balance sheet. I think how much of the cash they get to eventually keep is more important.
    Nov 30, 2012. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflation Trade Is On [View article]
    Daryle, always thorough, always making the right points.
    Great article.
    Sep 13, 2012. 07:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Bernanke And QE3++ [View article]
    I.V. thanks for using my QEternity.
    I don't think people can prove a correlation between unemployment rate and purchasing MBS. not making sense at all.

    But the market will still be Bullish in the next few days or even longer. Totally agree with Kyle about running with the bull.

    What we are witnessing is a fast buildup of inflation in the midterm, it may get built up much faster than expected. In the long run, It kind of reminds me the 80s, where inflatoin was above 12% and you pay 16-20% on mtg. but, hey, who cares about that. it is all about nothing blows up when big Ben is in the office.
    Sep 13, 2012. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: QE3 is on to the tune of an open-ended pledge to buy $40B in MBS per month. The pledge to keep rates extraordinarily low is extended until mid-2015. [View news story]
    QEternity
    Sep 13, 2012. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: QE3 is on to the tune of an open-ended pledge to buy $40B in MBS per month. The pledge to keep rates extraordinarily low is extended until mid-2015. [View news story]
    We shall call it "QEternity"
    Sep 13, 2012. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: QE3 is on to the tune of an open-ended pledge to buy $40B in MBS per month. The pledge to keep rates extraordinarily low is extended until mid-2015. [View news story]
    Tea Party? movement?
    just look at how much change people got from Occupy Wall Street. Nothing!Nobody cares about the middle class.
    Sep 13, 2012. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: QE3 is on to the tune of an open-ended pledge to buy $40B in MBS per month. The pledge to keep rates extraordinarily low is extended until mid-2015. [View news story]
    Since it is open-ended, My understanding is that there will be no more QEs, because this one is going to be there FOREVER,

    "If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability."

    On second thought, the $40B/m may not be there forever, because there will be $90B/m, $150/m.

    Get use to it, don't run against the upcoming bull. It seems like the bull will keep on running for awhile. It doesn't mean QE is good for the economy or the people. but the market likes it.
    Sep 13, 2012. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: QE3 is on to the tune of an open-ended pledge to buy $40B in MBS per month. The pledge to keep rates extraordinarily low is extended until mid-2015. [View news story]
    QE3 is counter-productive at this point. As high commodity price will lead to high food & energy price, which results in slowing down the consumer consumption.
    Buying more MBS will also encourage reckless lending from the bank. Now there is a place to sell that junk again.
    There is a even bigger bubble than 2008 underway.
    Sep 13, 2012. 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: More Pain Ahead [View article]
    Bill,
    now, mark zuckerberg promised he will not sell his shares for 12 months. The impact of the lock-up expiretion will be reduced by a bit, but what will be the share size for the upcoming Oct, Nov lock-up (minus Zuckerberg shares)? I wonder how much his promise can affect the market.

    SZ
    Sep 12, 2012. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Smart Money' Is The New 'Large Size' [View article]
    After the big drop on Aug 14th, from now on, it will be a slow killing for Groupon shareholders. I expect us to see 3-4% drop every day until under $5.
    The broad of Groupon has to make changes to the upper management soon.
    When Mason went to wait the table, I thought he knew that they will beat the street expectation. I took that as a sign of confidence. Now, the number came out, nothing he did made much sense, and I think he is not competent of leading this firm.
    Aug 15, 2012. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Smart Money' Is The New 'Large Size' [View article]
    Overstock.com was a $70 stock at one point... It is trading at $8, 10% of its peak. ironically , we are not too far from trading at 10% of Groupon high of $31. We only need two days like today to be trading at $3.

    What's your strategy with your long position, George?
    Aug 14, 2012. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
46 Comments
61 Likes