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  • Access National Is Still A Buy [View article]
    UncleLongHair, that statement in incorrect. Gain on sale margins of agency mortgages are on function of the mortgage rate, the par yield of agency MBS (aka the primary / secondary spread), guarantee fees and expected duration. the primary secondary spread widened to all time highs in the 2H'12 as QE artificially depressed MBS yields. That has begun to reverse
    Aug 14 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Access National Is Still A Buy [View article]
    UncleLongHair, thanks from the background but not sure what your opinion is. Originating and selling conforming mortgages has indeed been a very profitable business for ANCX, but that business has been "over earning" because of historically wide spreads and very high volumes. That favorable backdrop changed dramatically in June w risking mortgage rates. Volumes are likely decline and margins have normalized, which will likely create pressure on ANCX's earnings. It seems like that "secret sauce" could cause some pain as conditions normalize.
    Aug 9 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Access National Is Still A Buy [View article]
    I appreciate your thoughts and quick response. If commissions are 95bp then non-commission salary expense at the mortgage bank is still about the same size as the salary expense at the bank. Since commissions are usually the highest expense for a mortgage operation, this does strike me as a bit strange. I don't believe the 10q is out, but I believe non-comp / ex-provision expense is running ~$1.6-$1.7 million a quarter at the commercial bank segment. For a growing commercial bank w/ >$800 million of segment assets and a wealth mgt division, this sure seems absurdly low. Again, this is just another red flag that something might be up with the allocation of expenses between mortgage and banking (and thus the pain of lower mortgage results could be more severe than expected).
    Aug 7 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Access National Is Still A Buy [View article]
    Thanks for the article, but you did not address the elephant in the room. Gain on sale of mortgages was still $7.1 million in 2Q after Denver with total pretax of $5.5 million, so >than 100%. We are just coming out of a mortgage banking volume and gain on sale margin bubble. I have trouble understanding how stock works if mortgage drives earnings lower. Also, I also have trouble reconciling the company's segment disclosures. They appear to allocate very little expense and salary to the commercial bank relative to the mortgage banking segment (potentially overstating the high multiple biz relative to the low to mid single digit multiple biz). It appears somewhat questionable. Would love your thoughts. Thanks
    Aug 7 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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