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The Coming Solar Capex Boom
- Demand for solar energy keeps on rising briskly, after steep price falls.
- Prices have stabilized and companies recovered some of their profit margins.
- For growth to continue, companies need to significantly expand capex, which has interesting implications for certain stocks.
- If capex doesn't increase enough, prices could actually increase.
Secular Stagnation Effects On Financial Markets
Wed, Aug. 20 • 20 Comments
- There is a lot of confusion what secular stagnation really means; here is a quick introduction and scheme.
- We look at what impact secular stagnation has on asset prices.
- Secular stagnation has likely been beneficial for both bonds and stocks, but at the cost of greater financial instability.
Solar + Storage Is Close To An Inflection Point
- Solar energy has already achieved grid parity in a number of locations, but problems with its intermittent nature remain.
- Energy storage will greatly diminish these remaining problems, so solar + storage is becoming a big investment opportunity.
- We survey the landscape and the investment implications.
Supply-Side Versus Keynesian Economics
- In the battle of economic ideas, one that has been raging for nearly four decades is that between supply-siders and Keynesians.
- While we think some supply-side measures can be useful, one really has to be specific as to the kind of measures and expected effects, it's all in the details.
- A general supply-side approach seems a little out of place as a recipe to combat what is a distinctly Keynesian crisis.
Phoenix New Media Shares Are Undervalued
- The shares sold off after Q2 figures but we only see healthy growth.
- Debt free, solid growth, quality media reputation and close ties to one of the best media brands in China.
- The shares are too cheap, especially taking the whopping cash position into consideration.
The Bond Markets Vs. Peter Schiff
- Some market observers like Peter Schiff have warned us that many markets and even the whole economy are kept up by asset purchases by the Fed.
- So we should expect the recovery to stall, the dollar, stocks and bonds to fall when the Fed stops these purchases.
- Not only is this not happening, some of these markets are actually up, like the bond market. So who is right, bonds or Peter Schiff?
SunPower Shares Are Still Very Attractive
- SunPower shares have been on a tear the last couple of years.
- Shares supported by significant competitive advantage, innovations, strong market growth and stable ASPs.
- The shares have sold off on Q2 results but this provides a new buying opportunity.
Is The Fed Falling Behind The Curve?
- The nature of the 2008/9 crisis was different from previous crisis, and the nature of the recovery also differed.
- Apart from explaining the tepid nature of the recovery itself, it also shows the difficulties in interpreting the economy.
- These difficulties complicate the timing of policy changes by the Fed and significantly increase the risk that the Fed is falling behind the curve.
Ellie Mae Breaks Out Of Multi-Year Resistance
- Shares in Ellie Mae (ELLI) have finally broken out from multi-year resistance.
- This on stellar results in a very difficult market.
- The company is very well positioned to profit even more when mortgage volume will increase next year.
Sell The Euro
- The eurozone is stuck into low or even negative growth on the border of deflation.
- Yet the ECB balance sheet has shrunk, this will not last as the risks are increasing.
- Risks are a deflationary shock from the Russia crisis and tightening US monetary policy.
- The euro will also suffer from a flight into the dollar as a result of its safe haven status in times of international crisis.
Panic Selling In Destiny Media Is Unwarranted
- With the introduction of the security pack, Destiny's streaming media solution is finally ready for launch in the first out of two dozen verticals.
- Other problems, like a work around of ISP throttling, are in the works, as well as customization for other market verticals.
- All this has taken significantly longer than many people hoped and/or expected, and the stock has been sold off way too much, helped by incorrect info which needs correcting.
Panic Selling Turns Into Panic Buying In Sphere 3D
- Shares in Sphere 3D sold off on valuation concerns.
- While these valuation concerns are justified, they're also one-sided and backward looking and susceptible to surprises.
- One such surprise arrived on Monday from take-over target Overland, suggesting the ever falling reveunes is coming to an end.
InvenSense Will Be Range Bound
- InvenSense is a very well run company.
- Positive forces are market growth, good execution leading to market share gains.
- But these are partly offset by the size of the required investments and price erosion.
- We think therefore that InvenSense will be range bound for the forseeable future.
Has Destiny Media's Clipstream Product Failed?
- That is what an article today argued, we argue that this provides a particularly one-sided picture of Destiny Media in general, and Clipstream in particular.
- PlayMPE, Destiny's other product, is the de-facto standard in sending pre-release music to customers and it's usage is fast growing.
- Clipstream, the product for streaming media, hasn't properly launched as it's being taylored for different verticals in conjunction with users, it addresses a big and fast growing market opportunity.
- You will never find out the many advantages of Clipstream by reading Keubiko's articles, while some rather irrelevant disadvantages are played up or unjustly ascribed to the technology.
Destiny's Shares Can Still Double
- When Destiny's streaming media product Clipstream was launched, it wasn't ready and the share price took a hit.
- Problems with ISP throttling video streams for some users and extensive tailoring the product to different categories of users is what caused the holdup.
- But as these issues are getting solved one by one, we still think there is a bright future for this company.
- From the levels here, we think the shares can double and recoup their losses by year-end.
Risk Is Back, It's The Euro, Stupid!
- All quiet on the Southern front? Not really, the euro induced destruction machine is still grinding.
- It's important for investors to grasp exactly how this works, so here is a primer.
- What are the main risks the situation derails? We'll discuss three.
The Virtual Reality Race Is On
- VR headsets are finally emerging as a mass-market consumer product.
- The possible applications are sheer endless and VR seems set to become a big market.
- There are three early contenders on the hardware side, but the money is likely to be in the software side.
Hard Money, Soft Money And Asset Bubbles
Fri, May. 23 • 92 Comments
- Should we raise interest rates to curb possible asset price bubbles?
- Answers depend on who you ask. "Hard money" people say yes, "soft money" people say no.
- So we'll look at the costs, benefits, and alternatives.
Sphere 3D Taking On The Software Virtualization World?
- Sphere 3D promises it has a revolutionary product with the Glassware 2.0 virtualization platform.
- The acquisition of Overland could provide it with the critical mass to propel this product into the market.
- But the shares have already run up a lot and the company isn't without critics.
3 Stocks On The Ropes Offer Big Value
- While the market indexes are holding up, many stocks are in bear market territory.
- We think some of the stocks that have been sold off heavily are due for a bounce.
- We see fundamental value in FENG, XXII and SZYM at these sold-off levels.
Big Oil Under Serious Threat
- Oil majors face serious challenges, for decades, resource nationalization has kept them out of many of the cheapest fields.
- They're struggling to replace existing reserves and production with new reserves and production.
- Climate change could present them with a staggering $28 trillion bill.
Hard Money Versus Soft Money
Thu, May. 8 • 44 Comments
- Many in finance argue that the Fed policies are deeply mistaken and that the Fed is cohorting with Wall Street.
- The paradox is that these are some of the same guys who would benefit most from that situation.
- We think this apparent paradox can be explained by the power of ideas.
The Polish Markets Are Cheap
- Poland, greatly helped by EU membership, has been an economic success story.
- The economic success is insufficiently priced into equity values, which are historically cheap.
- Some short-term risk remains due to the crisis over the Ukraine.
An Underappreciated Turnaround At Paul Mueller
- Paul Mueller has achieved substantial operational and balance sheet improvements, a notable turnaround that deserves much more attention.
- The shares are still very cheap - a return to 2007 highs and dividends should be on the cards.
- The time of harvesting for the company seems to have arrived.
No Second Solar Slump In Sight
- Some argue that we are about to experience a second great solar stock slump.
- While there are some headwinds, we think these are temporary.
- The negatives have already been priced in.
The Limits Of Shareholder Capitalism
- Shareholder capitalism places shareholder value at the center and aligns managerial compensation with the interest of shareholders.
- It has been successful on its own terms, and corporate profits and share prices have risen a lot.
- But there is also a downside - investments have declined, there is more financial instability, inequality has increased and it may help produce a low growth equilibrium.
NQ Mobile Is Oversold
- The earnings miss is due to one-off factors and fast growth in lower-margin business. The dramatic sell-off is, therefore, overdone.
- NQ is in the midst of a fundamental change away from a near-commoditized business, and its new platform strategy is already starting to deliver.
- New significant revenue streams are opening up.
Solar Projects Provide Stability, Higher Margins
- Solar stocks have been violently cyclical in the past.
- But decreasing dependence on subsidies and increasing dependence on projects will reduce this significantly.
- A less cyclical nature warrants a higher valuation for solar stocks.
- But problems remain, like grid problems and energy storage.
Opportunities And Risks For JinkoSolar
- After a monumental rise the last two years, shares in JKS still have further to run.
- There are considerable risks, but we think these are outweighed by the opportunities.
- The solar market is expanding, less dependent on subsidies, and panel prices and margins still move in the right direction.
- And big opportunities lie in distributed and utility scale projects, these enjoy much higher margins and are not cyclical.
The Wal-Mart Economy
- Business investment is low, despite record corporate profits, cash balances and low interest rates.
- Part of this is a sectoral shift from high capital intensive manufacturing to lower capital intensive services.
- But it is reinforced by a shift in categorical income distribution from wages to profits.
- This creates a negative feedback loop and threatens to lock the economy into a low growth equilibrium.
- Keynesianism Gone Wild
- JinkoSolar Sell-Off Provides Opportunity