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  • The Coming Solar Capex Boom
    Today, 11:38 AM ASYS, COHR, EU 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Demand for solar energy keeps on rising briskly, after steep price falls.
    • Prices have stabilized and companies recovered some of their profit margins.
    • For growth to continue, companies need to significantly expand capex, which has interesting implications for certain stocks.
    • If capex doesn't increase enough, prices could actually increase.
  • Secular Stagnation Effects On Financial Markets
    Wed, Aug. 20 20 Comments

    Summary

    • There is a lot of confusion what secular stagnation really means; here is a quick introduction and scheme.
    • We look at what impact secular stagnation has on asset prices.
    • Secular stagnation has likely been beneficial for both bonds and stocks, but at the cost of greater financial instability.
  • Solar + Storage Is Close To An Inflection Point
    Wed, Aug. 20 BYDDY, CBAK, ENS 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Solar energy has already achieved grid parity in a number of locations, but problems with its intermittent nature remain.
    • Energy storage will greatly diminish these remaining problems, so solar + storage is becoming a big investment opportunity.
    • We survey the landscape and the investment implications.
  • Supply-Side Versus Keynesian Economics
    Mon, Aug. 18 SPY, DIA, QQQ 127 Comments

    Summary

    • In the battle of economic ideas, one that has been raging for nearly four decades is that between supply-siders and Keynesians.
    • While we think some supply-side measures can be useful, one really has to be specific as to the kind of measures and expected effects, it's all in the details.
    • A general supply-side approach seems a little out of place as a recipe to combat what is a distinctly Keynesian crisis.
  • Phoenix New Media Shares Are Undervalued
    Fri, Aug. 15 FENG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares sold off after Q2 figures but we only see healthy growth.
    • Debt free, solid growth, quality media reputation and close ties to one of the best media brands in China.
    • The shares are too cheap, especially taking the whopping cash position into consideration.
  • The Bond Markets Vs. Peter Schiff
    Thu, Aug. 14 IEF, MBB, UUP 97 Comments

    Summary

    • Some market observers like Peter Schiff have warned us that many markets and even the whole economy are kept up by asset purchases by the Fed.
    • So we should expect the recovery to stall, the dollar, stocks and bonds to fall when the Fed stops these purchases.
    • Not only is this not happening, some of these markets are actually up, like the bond market. So who is right, bonds or Peter Schiff?
  • SunPower Shares Are Still Very Attractive
    Editors' Pick • Tue, Aug. 12 TOT, SPWR 3 Comments

    Summary

    • SunPower shares have been on a tear the last couple of years.
    • Shares supported by significant competitive advantage, innovations, strong market growth and stable ASPs.
    • The shares have sold off on Q2 results but this provides a new buying opportunity.
  • Is The Fed Falling Behind The Curve?
    Tue, Aug. 12 SPY, DIA, QQQ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The nature of the 2008/9 crisis was different from previous crisis, and the nature of the recovery also differed.
    • Apart from explaining the tepid nature of the recovery itself, it also shows the difficulties in interpreting the economy.
    • These difficulties complicate the timing of policy changes by the Fed and significantly increase the risk that the Fed is falling behind the curve.
  • Ellie Mae Breaks Out Of Multi-Year Resistance
    Fri, Aug. 8 ELLI Comment!

    Summary

    • Shares in Ellie Mae (ELLI) have finally broken out from multi-year resistance.
    • This on stellar results in a very difficult market.
    • The company is very well positioned to profit even more when mortgage volume will increase next year.
  • Sell The Euro
    Thu, Aug. 7 FXE, EUO, ERO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The eurozone is stuck into low or even negative growth on the border of deflation.
    • Yet the ECB balance sheet has shrunk, this will not last as the risks are increasing.
    • Risks are a deflationary shock from the Russia crisis and tightening US monetary policy.
    • The euro will also suffer from a flight into the dollar as a result of its safe haven status in times of international crisis.
  • Panic Selling In Destiny Media Is Unwarranted
    Wed, Aug. 6 DSNY 20 Comments

    Summary

    • With the introduction of the security pack, Destiny's streaming media solution is finally ready for launch in the first out of two dozen verticals.
    • Other problems, like a work around of ISP throttling, are in the works, as well as customization for other market verticals.
    • All this has taken significantly longer than many people hoped and/or expected, and the stock has been sold off way too much, helped by incorrect info which needs correcting.
  • Panic Selling Turns Into Panic Buying In Sphere 3D
    Wed, Aug. 6 ANY 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares in Sphere 3D sold off on valuation concerns.
    • While these valuation concerns are justified, they're also one-sided and backward looking and susceptible to surprises.
    • One such surprise arrived on Monday from take-over target Overland, suggesting the ever falling reveunes is coming to an end.
  • InvenSense Will Be Range Bound
    Fri, Aug. 1 INVN 15 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense is a very well run company.
    • Positive forces are market growth, good execution leading to market share gains.
    • But these are partly offset by the size of the required investments and price erosion.
    • We think therefore that InvenSense will be range bound for the forseeable future.
  • Has Destiny Media's Clipstream Product Failed?
       • Sat, Jul. 19 DSNY 11 Comments

    Summary

    • That is what an article today argued, we argue that this provides a particularly one-sided picture of Destiny Media in general, and Clipstream in particular.
    • PlayMPE, Destiny's other product, is the de-facto standard in sending pre-release music to customers and it's usage is fast growing.
    • Clipstream, the product for streaming media, hasn't properly launched as it's being taylored for different verticals in conjunction with users, it addresses a big and fast growing market opportunity.
    • You will never find out the many advantages of Clipstream by reading Keubiko's articles, while some rather irrelevant disadvantages are played up or unjustly ascribed to the technology.
  • Destiny's Shares Can Still Double
    Wed, Jul. 16 DSNY 19 Comments

    Summary

    • When Destiny's streaming media product Clipstream was launched, it wasn't ready and the share price took a hit.
    • Problems with ISP throttling video streams for some users and extensive tailoring the product to different categories of users is what caused the holdup.
    • But as these issues are getting solved one by one, we still think there is a bright future for this company.
    • From the levels here, we think the shares can double and recoup their losses by year-end.
  • Risk Is Back, It's The Euro, Stupid!
    Fri, Jul. 11 FXE, EUO, ERO 126 Comments

    Summary

    • All quiet on the Southern front? Not really, the euro induced destruction machine is still grinding.
    • It's important for investors to grasp exactly how this works, so here is a primer.
    • What are the main risks the situation derails? We'll discuss three.
  • The Virtual Reality Race Is On
    Mon, Jun. 16 MSFT, SNE, SSNLF 3 Comments

    Summary

    • VR headsets are finally emerging as a mass-market consumer product.
    • The possible applications are sheer endless and VR seems set to become a big market.
    • There are three early contenders on the hardware side, but the money is likely to be in the software side.
  • Hard Money, Soft Money And Asset Bubbles
    Fri, May. 23 92 Comments

    Summary

    • Should we raise interest rates to curb possible asset price bubbles?
    • Answers depend on who you ask. "Hard money" people say yes, "soft money" people say no.
    • So we'll look at the costs, benefits, and alternatives.
  • Sphere 3D Taking On The Software Virtualization World?
       • Tue, May. 20 OVRL, ANY 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Sphere 3D promises it has a revolutionary product with the Glassware 2.0 virtualization platform.
    • The acquisition of Overland could provide it with the critical mass to propel this product into the market.
    • But the shares have already run up a lot and the company isn't without critics.
  • 3 Stocks On The Ropes Offer Big Value
    Sun, May. 11 SZYM, XXII, FENG 11 Comments

    Summary

    • While the market indexes are holding up, many stocks are in bear market territory.
    • We think some of the stocks that have been sold off heavily are due for a bounce.
    • We see fundamental value in FENG, XXII and SZYM at these sold-off levels.
  • Big Oil Under Serious Threat
    Fri, May. 9 CVX, RDS.A, XOM 687 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil majors face serious challenges, for decades, resource nationalization has kept them out of many of the cheapest fields.
    • They're struggling to replace existing reserves and production with new reserves and production.
    • Climate change could present them with a staggering $28 trillion bill.
  • Hard Money Versus Soft Money
    Thu, May. 8 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Many in finance argue that the Fed policies are deeply mistaken and that the Fed is cohorting with Wall Street.
    • The paradox is that these are some of the same guys who would benefit most from that situation.
    • We think this apparent paradox can be explained by the power of ideas.
  • The Polish Markets Are Cheap
    Sun, May. 4 EPOL, PLND 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Poland, greatly helped by EU membership, has been an economic success story.
    • The economic success is insufficiently priced into equity values, which are historically cheap.
    • Some short-term risk remains due to the crisis over the Ukraine.
  • An Underappreciated Turnaround At Paul Mueller
    Thu, May. 1 MUEL 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Paul Mueller has achieved substantial operational and balance sheet improvements, a notable turnaround that deserves much more attention.
    • The shares are still very cheap - a return to 2007 highs and dividends should be on the cards.
    • The time of harvesting for the company seems to have arrived.
  • No Second Solar Slump In Sight
    Tue, Apr. 29 CSIQ, SOL, TSL 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Some argue that we are about to experience a second great solar stock slump.
    • While there are some headwinds, we think these are temporary.
    • The negatives have already been priced in.
  • The Limits Of Shareholder Capitalism
    Thu, Apr. 24 SPY, SH, SSO 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Shareholder capitalism places shareholder value at the center and aligns managerial compensation with the interest of shareholders.
    • It has been successful on its own terms, and corporate profits and share prices have risen a lot.
    • But there is also a downside - investments have declined, there is more financial instability, inequality has increased and it may help produce a low growth equilibrium.
  • NQ Mobile Is Oversold
    Wed, Apr. 16 NQ 62 Comments

    Summary

    • The earnings miss is due to one-off factors and fast growth in lower-margin business. The dramatic sell-off is, therefore, overdone.
    • NQ is in the midst of a fundamental change away from a near-commoditized business, and its new platform strategy is already starting to deliver.
    • New significant revenue streams are opening up.
  • Solar Projects Provide Stability, Higher Margins
    Tue, Mar. 25 CSIQ, FSLR, JASO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Solar stocks have been violently cyclical in the past.
    • But decreasing dependence on subsidies and increasing dependence on projects will reduce this significantly.
    • A less cyclical nature warrants a higher valuation for solar stocks.
    • But problems remain, like grid problems and energy storage.
  • Opportunities And Risks For JinkoSolar
    Mon, Mar. 10 JKS 7 Comments

    Summary

    • After a monumental rise the last two years, shares in JKS still have further to run.
    • There are considerable risks, but we think these are outweighed by the opportunities.
    • The solar market is expanding, less dependent on subsidies, and panel prices and margins still move in the right direction.
    • And big opportunities lie in distributed and utility scale projects, these enjoy much higher margins and are not cyclical.
  • The Wal-Mart Economy
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Mar. 6 WMT 86 Comments

    Summary

    • Business investment is low, despite record corporate profits, cash balances and low interest rates.
    • Part of this is a sectoral shift from high capital intensive manufacturing to lower capital intensive services.
    • But it is reinforced by a shift in categorical income distribution from wages to profits.
    • This creates a negative feedback loop and threatens to lock the economy into a low growth equilibrium.
  • Keynesianism Gone Wild
    Tue, Feb. 11 SAN, TEF, BBVA 9 Comments
  • JinkoSolar Sell-Off Provides Opportunity
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Jan. 27 TSL, JKS 11 Comments