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Big Oil Under Serious Threat
- Oil majors face serious challenges, for decades, resource nationalization has kept them out of many of the cheapest fields.
- They're struggling to replace existing reserves and production with new reserves and production.
- Climate change could present them with a staggering $28 trillion bill.
Hard Money Versus Soft Money
Thu, May. 8 • 66 Comments
- Many in finance argue that the Fed policies are deeply mistaken and that the Fed is cohorting with Wall Street.
- The paradox is that these are some of the same guys who would benefit most from that situation.
- We think this apparent paradox can be explained by the power of ideas.
The Polish Markets Are Cheap
- Poland, greatly helped by EU membership, has been an economic success story.
- The economic success is insufficiently priced into equity values, which are historically cheap.
- Some short-term risk remains due to the crisis over the Ukraine.
An Underappreciated Turnaround At Paul Mueller
- Paul Mueller has achieved substantial operational and balance sheet improvements, a notable turnaround that deserves much more attention.
- The shares are still very cheap - a return to 2007 highs and dividends should be on the cards.
- The time of harvesting for the company seems to have arrived.
No Second Solar Slump In Sight
- Some argue that we are about to experience a second great solar stock slump.
- While there are some headwinds, we think these are temporary.
- The negatives have already been priced in.
The Limits Of Shareholder Capitalism
- Shareholder capitalism places shareholder value at the center and aligns managerial compensation with the interest of shareholders.
- It has been successful on its own terms, and corporate profits and share prices have risen a lot.
- But there is also a downside - investments have declined, there is more financial instability, inequality has increased and it may help produce a low growth equilibrium.
NQ Mobile Is Oversold
- The earnings miss is due to one-off factors and fast growth in lower-margin business. The dramatic sell-off is, therefore, overdone.
- NQ is in the midst of a fundamental change away from a near-commoditized business, and its new platform strategy is already starting to deliver.
- New significant revenue streams are opening up.
Solar Projects Provide Stability, Higher Margins
- Solar stocks have been violently cyclical in the past.
- But decreasing dependence on subsidies and increasing dependence on projects will reduce this significantly.
- A less cyclical nature warrants a higher valuation for solar stocks.
- But problems remain, like grid problems and energy storage.
Opportunities And Risks For JinkoSolar
- After a monumental rise the last two years, shares in JKS still have further to run.
- There are considerable risks, but we think these are outweighed by the opportunities.
- The solar market is expanding, less dependent on subsidies, and panel prices and margins still move in the right direction.
- And big opportunities lie in distributed and utility scale projects, these enjoy much higher margins and are not cyclical.
The Wal-Mart Economy
- Business investment is low, despite record corporate profits, cash balances and low interest rates.
- Part of this is a sectoral shift from high capital intensive manufacturing to lower capital intensive services.
- But it is reinforced by a shift in categorical income distribution from wages to profits.
- This creates a negative feedback loop and threatens to lock the economy into a low growth equilibrium.
- Keynesianism Gone Wild
- JinkoSolar Sell-Off Provides Opportunity
- Why We Are Keynesians
- Sell-Off At Destiny Provides Big Opportunity
- Buy Into A Stealth Football Revolution
- Buy French Equities
- Accumulate Trina Solar
- Samsung's Opening Shot In The Battle For The Soul Of Capitalism
- Solar Energy Poses A Threat To The Shale Gas Revolution
- How To Save The Euro
- Watch Out Google, Ubuntu Touch Is Coming
- The Ticking Time Bomb Under The World Economy
- The Surreal Phantom Ten-Fold Rise Of Vision China Media
- Our 2014 Double: Destiny Media
- Is The U.S. Bankrupt?
- Intel Faces Many Hurdles
There Is Such A Thing As A Free Lunch After All
Dec. 9, 2013 • 49 Comments
- InterOil Sell-Off Provides A Big Opportunity
- Do We Need Permanent Public Deficits If Larry Summers Is Right?
- Time Is On The Side Of The NQ Longs
The Austrians Are Wrong - Inflation Isn't Coming
Nov. 27, 2013 • 42 Comments
- The Economics Of Massive Force