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  • This Is When The Music Really Stops [View article]
    Well, perhaps, but there is more to this. Here is Martin Wolff from the FT:

    ["The important economic fact about China is its past achievements. Gross domestic product (at purchasing power parity) has risen from 3 per cent of US levels to some 25 per cent (see chart). GDP is an imperfect measure of the standard of living. But this transformation is no statistical artefact. It is visible on the ground.

    The only “large” (bigger than city state) economies, without valuable natural resources, to achieve something like this since the second world war are Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam."]

    http://on.ft.com/1XdVBqE
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is When The Music Really Stops [View article]
    My pleasure, thanks Netblue
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    Jeff, with all respect, and I really do have a lot of respect for you and this weekly outlook, but I think you are underestimating the China risk. Yes, trade wise, US export to China is only 1% of US GDP.

    The danger though isn't so much in trade. It's the capital flight out of China. The funny thing is, you read these stories that China is trying to devalue (or even engage in a 'currency war'), whilst they are actually trying to do exactly the opposite. They are spending large amounts of the forex reserves to prop up their currency, a side effect of this is monetary tightening in China itself.

    The question is for how long they can and/or will keep that up. If the moment arrives that they can't/won't, that's basically when the music stops. I don't think the world is ready for another deflationary wave, but that's just my opinion. Working on an article about this. I'm not saying it is going to happen, but it certainly is a considerable risk, and we've seen a little dry run of what can happen and how financial markets absorb this..
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:20 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    The argument here is that without insurance, they have a tendency to wait to seek medical help, at which stage it will often require more costly interventions (as well as have more serious health implications for the person in question), not really where they seek medical help, which I don't think is terribly relevant.
    Aug 27, 2015. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    Apart from the fact that there really hasn't been 20 years on-off QE in Japan.

    And as it happens GDP per working person grew almost as fast in Japan as in the US. Much of Japan's problem is demographical.
    Aug 26, 2015. 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trouble Is Brewing In The Markets [View article]
    Thanks Herb, I wouldn't call it brilliant by any stretch I have to say. Emerging markets and China are experiencing real problems, and sooner or later this had to feed through the markets as these countries were responsible for up to 80% of world economic growth in the last 5-6 years or so.

    Having said that, recent economic figures from the US are surprisingly strong.
    Aug 26, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JinkoSolar Versus The Market [View article]
    Thanks. Everything related to China (and energy) is puked out right now, but the dust will settle at some time. Until then it's more of a traders market.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    This has been happening way before 2008, median wages started to lag productivity growth from the 1970s onwards, the ratio of CEO pay to employee pay started to explode from the 1980s onwards.

    Yes, there was a bailout in 2008, but without that the economy would have completely crashed
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    There is simply nothing to back that up. Yes, some people are worse off and yes, not everybody could keep their existing healthcare, but there are numerous benefits offsetting that as discussed in the article. And one cannot generalize from a single example, even if it's one's own.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Mad? Really? [View article]
    Thanks, I'm a little busy right now but I think I've written already stuff on that here, as it happens.
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Mad? Really? [View article]
    I don't see the unwinding of QE as a problem:
    - There is no need to do it, certainly not immediately.
    - It can be done when the market conditions can bare it.
    Aug 23, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Mad? Really? [View article]
    Ray, with respect, I didn't argue that the Fed is all powerful, but monetary policy isn't without influence in the economy (you might want to revisit what happened between 1979-82). Single studies of this type are not the last word on that either.
    Aug 22, 2015. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Mad? Really? [View article]
    ["There are many reasons why the Fed should lower interest rates. But there are 2 and only 2 reasons that the Fed should ever raise interest rates.
    1. To stop inflation
    2. To stop the economy from over heating"]

    Exactly
    Aug 22, 2015. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Mad? Really? [View article]
    ["However, to ignore the Fed's role in creating two, and most likely three, equity bubbles since 2000 will surely be considered myopic once the economic history of the last couple of decades is written."]

    I again I ask, what was the Fed supposed to do, raise interest rates when there is absolutely no inflationary danger because Wall Street can't contain itself?

    It is time to use macroprudential policies, that is, regulation, to contain asset bubbles, but that is anathema for most Austrians and financial types
    Aug 22, 2015. 08:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Mad? Really? [View article]
    Well, I think the rapid rise in inequality is almost completely down to changes in corporate governance, the effect of aligning the interests of managers with those of shareholders, and the reduction in bargaining power of labor. But perhaps that's for another day..
    Aug 22, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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