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  • Ellie Mae Is Due For A Breather [View article]
    At first sight looks like Q1 is another killer quarter, consolidation could be over, the company really is awesome
    Apr 30, 2015. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Upside Left For U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    Hello DWD, thanks. The main point here is actually that I see little of the forces that got the market higher still in place. Growth is soft, monetary policy not as supportive, the dollar rises, wage growth very moderate, earnings growth might even negative this year, I guess we still have buybacks, but a stock market running on buybacks alone..
    Apr 7, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Upside Left For U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    ["Maybe this is just where we are, in a global supply glut with demand lagging (waning fiscal drag, stubborn wages, labor market slack, etc.) and prices falling a bit as a result."]

    Yes, that's where we are, basically. Add to that fairly impotent monetary policy, which should mainly work via the currency market (essentially a zero sum game)..
    Apr 7, 2015. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina As A Contrarian Bet? [View article]
    Yes, actually two sides of it. They did rather well from 2002-2008
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    But then they went from bad to worse..
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina As A Contrarian Bet? [View article]
    Thanks Steven, my pleasure.
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["but I would say you should not make a policy out of such 'intangibles'."]

    Agree, but post 2008 was when it was really needed. The whole financial system froze up post Lehman, the Fed had to pull off some conficence trick. And they did, together with the fiscal stimulus, the auto bail-out, TARP, etc.

    And 1933 was a fairly similar regime change type of shock to boost confidence, so I'm not sure how you can argue that the Great Depression healed itself. 1937 was a mistake (and Ray Dalio has been warning we might repeat that, which seems a bit exaggerated to me, especially with Yellen at the Fed), but ultimately the war brought an end to the Great Depression.
    Apr 1, 2015. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["The author is simply repeating an untestable hypothesis. As for the Fed having power over the economy, this is false too: ‘King and Levine (1993) did not find evidence to support the hypothesized relationship between real interest rate and economic growth in a cross-section of countries. Taylor (1999) found that the link between real interest rates and macroeconomic aggregates such as consumption and investment is tenuous.’ (from a paper by Richard A. Werner, who coined the phrase ‘QE’)"]

    I'm actually aware of this. The fact is that the Fed did quite a bit more in 2008/9 than just lower interest rates. They stabilized the financial markets. Then there was fiscal stimulus. These were really extraordinary times, where intangibles like confidence really matter.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["We do know it has devalued our currency which has created a "tax" on the working class as their dollar buys less."]

    Huh? Inflation has been really been very low and the stagnant wages have been an issue for decades.

    ["I continue to hear, "if we didn't have QE then we would have gone into the next depression". Really, how are you so smart to know this??"]

    Yes, it is a counterfactual, but the nature of the crisis was very similar to the one in 1929 (both imploding asset bubbles creating balance sheet effects) and we have had a different outcome. One thing that was different was the policy reactions and there is some corroborating evidence from policy changes during the years (in the 1930s for instance, 1933 and 1937 stand out in the US, 1932/3 in Japan, etc.)
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    Yes, thanks sleek, well worth a read.
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["The dire consequences of QE'S will not be felt until a future time. Right now the patient is on morphine. What will the withdrawals feel like ?"]

    QE has stopped for quite some time already.

    ["The FED is clueless right now."]

    As it happens, Yellen turns out to be a pretty good predictor..
    But you know better, no doubt...http://bit.ly/1bKoE1L
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["We all know that the disciples of Keynes never met an economic problem that they thought couldn't be solved by printing money and thus debasing the currency"]

    If "we all know" this, I'm not part of it. It's nonsense anyway.

    ["It is time for us to face our economic problems rather than to attempt to magically make them disappear with a lot of financial manipulation and smoke and mirrors."]

    One of the economic problems we faced was that demand was running far below production capacity. Counter-cyclical policies help address that problem.

    It's tailored medicine for specific situations.
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong [View article]
    ["Not really fair to equate the entire Austrian School with Peter Schiff."]

    I've qualified that quite significantly, I think:

    ["All Schiff's beliefs seems to stem from a fairly crude form of Austrian economics"]
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong [View article]
    Thanks Jeremy. I did make my prediction some time ago, as it happens:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong [View article]
    ["The difficulty lies, in part, in the fact that the Austrian School of Economics defines "inflation" as any time the volume of currency increases, irrespective of whether prices go up or down."]

    Yes, I know, as non-sensical as that seems to me. Many of them also say deflation is good. Perhaps they should re-read Irving Fisher..
    Mar 23, 2015. 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The U.S. Is Broke' [View article]
    ["My problem with endless rants on the government that somehow must be bad in every way, is the typically accompanying assumptions of businesses that are all perfectly efficient and honest. In fact, the horrors of government are not much better or worse than the horrors to be found in businesses, and in most cases are virtually identical"]

    Thanks for that Alan..
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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