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  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["The author is simply repeating an untestable hypothesis. As for the Fed having power over the economy, this is false too: ‘King and Levine (1993) did not find evidence to support the hypothesized relationship between real interest rate and economic growth in a cross-section of countries. Taylor (1999) found that the link between real interest rates and macroeconomic aggregates such as consumption and investment is tenuous.’ (from a paper by Richard A. Werner, who coined the phrase ‘QE’)"]

    I'm actually aware of this. The fact is that the Fed did quite a bit more in 2008/9 than just lower interest rates. They stabilized the financial markets. Then there was fiscal stimulus. These were really extraordinary times, where intangibles like confidence really matter.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["We do know it has devalued our currency which has created a "tax" on the working class as their dollar buys less."]

    Huh? Inflation has been really been very low and the stagnant wages have been an issue for decades.

    ["I continue to hear, "if we didn't have QE then we would have gone into the next depression". Really, how are you so smart to know this??"]

    Yes, it is a counterfactual, but the nature of the crisis was very similar to the one in 1929 (both imploding asset bubbles creating balance sheet effects) and we have had a different outcome. One thing that was different was the policy reactions and there is some corroborating evidence from policy changes during the years (in the 1930s for instance, 1933 and 1937 stand out in the US, 1932/3 in Japan, etc.)
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    Yes, thanks sleek, well worth a read.
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["The dire consequences of QE'S will not be felt until a future time. Right now the patient is on morphine. What will the withdrawals feel like ?"]

    QE has stopped for quite some time already.

    ["The FED is clueless right now."]

    As it happens, Yellen turns out to be a pretty good predictor..
    But you know better, no doubt...http://bit.ly/1bKoE1L
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'QE Will Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come' [View article]
    ["We all know that the disciples of Keynes never met an economic problem that they thought couldn't be solved by printing money and thus debasing the currency"]

    If "we all know" this, I'm not part of it. It's nonsense anyway.

    ["It is time for us to face our economic problems rather than to attempt to magically make them disappear with a lot of financial manipulation and smoke and mirrors."]

    One of the economic problems we faced was that demand was running far below production capacity. Counter-cyclical policies help address that problem.

    It's tailored medicine for specific situations.
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong [View article]
    ["Not really fair to equate the entire Austrian School with Peter Schiff."]

    I've qualified that quite significantly, I think:

    ["All Schiff's beliefs seems to stem from a fairly crude form of Austrian economics"]
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong [View article]
    Thanks Jeremy. I did make my prediction some time ago, as it happens:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austrian Dollar Bears Keep Getting It Wrong [View article]
    ["The difficulty lies, in part, in the fact that the Austrian School of Economics defines "inflation" as any time the volume of currency increases, irrespective of whether prices go up or down."]

    Yes, I know, as non-sensical as that seems to me. Many of them also say deflation is good. Perhaps they should re-read Irving Fisher..
    Mar 23, 2015. 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The U.S. Is Broke' [View article]
    ["My problem with endless rants on the government that somehow must be bad in every way, is the typically accompanying assumptions of businesses that are all perfectly efficient and honest. In fact, the horrors of government are not much better or worse than the horrors to be found in businesses, and in most cases are virtually identical"]

    Thanks for that Alan..
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sphere 3D Has A Large Upside [View article]
    Thanks, here is a pretty useful update from the guy who discovered it:

    http://bit.ly/1xLBuBf
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last [View article]
    ["SU: Or, if Greece leaves and the sky does not fall, EZ may come out stronger"]

    Yes, that is possible, I haven't ruled that out.

    On the other hand, if the sky doesn't fall, perhaps more countries would actually want to leave, can't rule that out either..

    ["save yourself the grief and expense of paying for Greek spending-fueled 'growth' for the rest of eternity."]

    Well, that was true before 2009, but afterwards, it has just been the reverse, it was austerity induced depression with their economy shrinking by a quarter. Some of their grievances are actually based in reality..
    Mar 21, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last [View article]
    ["SU: You are saying that a Greek exit would cost the rest of EZ 'a couple hundred billion'. You also say that Greece cannot be reasonably expected to pay its debt, and debt forgiveness is required to allow it to stay in the EZ. To me, it sounds like a loss of a couple hundred billion as well. Where is the upside to the EZ?"]

    Well, they are still telling their tax payers that no losses will be incurred. I beg to differ, and I'm hardly alone..

    People who know a lot about these things like Barry Eichengreen and Nouriel Roubini say the contagion risk is all too real and that it's likely to be a catastrophe. Others say (hope?) it can be contained by the new firewalls and ECB QE. I wouldn't like to bet on this one, although the one upside is that if contagion does happen, perhaps we're finally liberated of the euro, which has been the biggest mistake the EU has ever made by a mile.
    Mar 20, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The U.S. Is Broke' [View article]
    ["It's not the monetary policies, but the anti-business fiscal, tax and regulatory policies that are constraining the enthusiasm of businesses to make investments, hire full-time workers and grow"]

    Based on what?

    Profitability has gone through the roof. Profits as a % of GDP is at record highs. Stock prices have gone through the roof. Discretionary public spending as a % of GDP and public sector employment have come down (something which hasn't happened in any previous recovery).
    Mar 20, 2015. 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last [View article]
    Well, no matter how prepared, the cost for Germany of a Grexit are still very high and the risks even higher, even if we now have ECB QE, firewalls, etc. It's still a pretty big gamble..
    Mar 20, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalemate In Greece Cannot Last [View article]
    ["The "Grexit is a catastrophe" theory is a red herring. A problem, yes, but no more a catastrophe than the current series of financial soap operas"]

    How do you know?

    For starters, it will cost European tax payers a couple of hundred billion. Secondly, it could very well revive the contagion that almost undid the eurozone in 2012.

    And yes, the Greeks did cook their books upon euro entry. But they have been punished for that and that has cost them 25% of their economy while their debt dynamics has only worsened, despite a large haircut on privately held debt.

    There has to be a better way..
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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