Eurozone Crisis: We Are Skeptical Against Simple Solutions [View article]
Wow, thanks, I don't know about that. The only thing I can do is tell as I see it. It's fun to do it, there is so much happening and therefore so much data to pour over and see what conclusions can be drawn, if any. I look for odd things, like the stuff about Argentina, or Japan, where I didn't really see a lost decade in the data. I'll have one about Germany today, where despite a GDP fall slightly bigger than in the US (2007-9), unemployment went down, actually. Stuff like that catches my attention, and the euro crisis especially is full of these anomalies at first sight.
Italy has a relatively modest budget deficit, if they can reduce that further without triggering a recession they could quite get away with things. Those are rather big 'ifs' but on the other hand, Italy has been here before. In the 1990s its debt/GDP was also 120% and interest rates far higher still (above 10% even). We urgently need some reflation in Europe.
["Japan is not really a nation as we understand it but a giant extended family."] I have to say, that's a good one. In fact, it's sort of accurate, or at least it's similar to how they see themselves, as 'wet rice' (that sticks together). It's why crime is so low (at least on a comparative level) as well. Perhaps Thatcher was wrong, and there is such a thing as 'society' after all, at least in Japan.. By the way, I take 2.4% GDP per capita growth as 'stagnation' any time..
Yes, this is an important component of their success. Finance dominates many US corporations while German and Japanese firms are more often led by engineers, and more patient capital. On the other hand, the US has a better system of innovation, but the Japanese excel at gradual improvements. Globalization has allowed approaches to learn from one another so the differences are not as sharp as they were (US auto manufacturers have, for instance, copied quite a lot from the Japanese practices).
I'll have a larger treatment of this in a couple of days (hopefully), but the market doesn't seem to be too perturbed. Or at least not yet. One of the things is that they used a drip-drip approach to the fiscal stimulus, while a massive attack (like the Chinese in 2009) would probably have been better. I'm not saying Japan is a paradise or that the debt is sustainable, but it's noteworthy nevertheless how they avoided a Great Depression with financial shocks of this magnitude.
Yes, interesting thought. However, take note of the fact that Japan is STILL the world's largest creditor nation. They still have a fairly large trade surplus, which says that they have excess savings. I think that explains Japan's low interest rates (as well as the mild deflation) more than any international interest rate climate, especially since almost all the public debt is financed domestically.
Yes, there basically three ways of calculating GDP, there might be some Japanese peculiarities, but I think the figures are internationally standardized. The Japanese state is relatively small (although they have a huge deficit in the finances), but they kept GDP from crashing, that should count for something.
I wrote about the wealth destruction in Japan. I specifically mentioned that it has been even bigger than in the US in the 1930s and 2008. Normally that would have led to a Great Depression. Not only didn't it do that, Japan has, on terms of GDP per person and unemployment, actually better performance than either the US or EU. Now, I know you guys predict doom and gloom. Many people predicted doom and gloom before, it hasn't happened. That doesn't mean it will, but I'm not going to write articles on the bases of predictions I cannot substantiate, while the reality paints quite a different picture.
You might have seen the figures above in which Japan's GDP per person grew faster than either in the US or EU? Or those which show unemployment basically half of these? Terribly lost decade, simply awful!
Eurozone Crisis: We Are Skeptical Against Simple Solutions [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
I have to say, that's a good one. In fact, it's sort of accurate, or at least it's similar to how they see themselves, as 'wet rice' (that sticks together). It's why crime is so low (at least on a comparative level) as well. Perhaps Thatcher was wrong, and there is such a thing as 'society' after all, at least in Japan..
By the way, I take 2.4% GDP per capita growth as 'stagnation' any time..
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
One of the things is that they used a drip-drip approach to the fiscal stimulus, while a massive attack (like the Chinese in 2009) would probably have been better. I'm not saying Japan is a paradise or that the debt is sustainable, but it's noteworthy nevertheless how they avoided a Great Depression with financial shocks of this magnitude.
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
Eurozone Crisis: We Are Skeptical Against Simple Solutions [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
Eurozone Crisis: We Are Skeptical Against Simple Solutions [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
Normally that would have led to a Great Depression. Not only didn't it do that, Japan has, on terms of GDP per person and unemployment, actually better performance than either the US or EU. Now, I know you guys predict doom and gloom. Many people predicted doom and gloom before, it hasn't happened. That doesn't mean it will, but I'm not going to write articles on the bases of predictions I cannot substantiate, while the reality paints quite a different picture.
By the way, you really are wrong about Europe:
http://seekingalpha.co...
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]
How Japan Escaped A Depression [View article]