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  • The Austerity Deniers [View article]
    ["Keynesianism only works if ya pay down your borrowed debt at the crests of the business cycle. If you don't, you enter balance sheet recessions at 70 or 80% d/gdp ratios and can't make it thru to the end."]

    Yes, and Keynes himself said that, as it happens. However, even if nations enter crisis at high debt levels and the private sector stops spending and interest rates fall to zero because nobody is borrowing (and/or banks aren't lending), they're better of increasing public spending.

    Ever heard of the paradox of thrift, Freddy?

    If the public sector compounds the reduced private sector spending the economy spirals down and you end up with higher debt/GDP levels anyway, but in a much more destructive way, by reducing GDP. Ask the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Irish, the Greeks, the Italians..
    Jun 9, 2013. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kyle Bass Versus The BoJ [View article]
    Not quite.
    - There were quite a few proviso's in my "holding up Japan as a shining example of Keynesianism. For starters, they should have done this 15 years ago. Instead, they let deflation creep in, which increases real debt burdens.

    - What people like you simply don't get, or don't want to get, is that when the private sector stops spending after a financial crash, some part of the economy has to increase spending, otherwise the economy crashes and you end up with similar debt/GDP levels but via a much more destructive route, by destroying GDP. It has got nothing to do with left or right, it has to do with keeping the economy from spiraling downwards.

    - What "real fact" that every debtor has a tipping point are you talking about? Are you aware that public debt isn't like private debt. For starters, we owe much of it to ourselves. Then, curtailing spending to service debt curtails income. On top of that, we're issuers of the currency in which the debt is denominated.
    Jun 9, 2013. 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Austerity Deniers [View article]
    Maybe it is because I'm on a much needed Coffee, but I couldn't agree more, NeedMoreCoffee.
    Jun 8, 2013. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Intel? Not So Fast [View article]
    Well, then the Transformer isn't for you! I never claimed it would be for everybody. Thanks for the list, but I'm sure the Transformer is able to play numerous decent games.
    Jun 7, 2013. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kyle Bass Versus The BoJ [View article]
    Yea, industrial "revolution" sounds terrific, until you actually look at the productivity data. These inventions took decades to have any impact on the economy. Things move a little faster today.
    Jun 7, 2013. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Intel? Not So Fast [View article]
    Yes, Russ, fair enough. I'm not arguing to short Intel or that Intel will make no inroads in hybrid/tablet (I didn't really consider the smartphone market in this article), just that it isn't the slam dunk that many seem to think. They have disadvantages in price and momentum, more so combined with Windows 8. For a consumer, it's really the question what he or she can't do with an Asus Transformer like hybrid.
    Jun 7, 2013. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Intel? Not So Fast [View article]
    Yes, I think I've mentioned that in the article a couple of times :)
    Jun 7, 2013. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Intel? Not So Fast [View article]
    ["Haswell is generations ahead of Tegra4 in terms of performance."]
    Yes, you might be right on that. But how much does it matter? How many floating point calculations does the average user need? What can Tegra 4 not do that the average consumer needs?
    Jun 7, 2013. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Austerity Deniers [View article]
    Well, first of all, we have since the beginning argued for a greater emphasis on structural reforms and less emphasis on austerity in the eurozone, so we recognize that point.

    However, more structural reforms increase the production capacity. While this can be good (especially in countries suffering from lots of legacy regulation, like the eurozone periphery minus Ireland), it doesn't really affect demand, and there is a clear case that most Western economies suffer from a lack of it (as a result of what the financial crisis did to private balance sheets).

    We also fail to see the "massive regulatory roadblocks" in the US. There are basically two, Dodd-Frank and Obamacare. We leave Obamacare for what it is for the moment (it really is a separate issue), but anyone arguing that the US financial system wasn't in need of a regulatory overhaul needs to study carefully how the financial crisis came about. Dodd-Frank isn't the perfect answer to this, we can agree (and it has been much diluted by lobbying), but clearly something had to be done here.
    Jun 6, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Austerity Deniers [View article]
    Where did we call success? The bill might very well be larger if austerity is applied under circumstances where the economy is producing way below potential and there is a large private sector financial surplus (savings greatly exceeding investments) and monetary policy isn't powerful because it's experiencing a liquidity trap. Quite a few European countries are experiencing the bill for chasing their own tail with austerity under these conditions at the moment. And not only the bill is larger, the economy is wrecked (which is actually how the bill gets larger).
    Jun 6, 2013. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kyle Bass Versus The BoJ [View article]
    The yen has been going up for decades and they now have a trade deficit, so I'm not sure whether a credible case can be made arguing the yen is undervalued.
    Jun 6, 2013. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Austerity Deniers [View article]
    Actually the Keynesian idea is counter-cyclical. Run surpluses during good times, deficits during bad (that is, GDP running way below potential GDP)
    Jun 6, 2013. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kyle Bass Versus The BoJ [View article]
    Reckless governments? You might want to go into what actually happened in Japan first. When private spending collapses as a result of the implosion of an enormous asset bubble, only public spending can keep an economy afloat.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 5, 2013. 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kyle Bass Versus The BoJ [View article]
    I'm not on serious (or any other) kind of drugs and I already showed a graph in the previous article indicating it has been done before..
    Jun 5, 2013. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kyle Bass Versus The BoJ [View article]
    You might have missed the graph of UK debt in the previous article, where public debt/GDP also hit these highs but was melted away by the wonders of nominal GDP growth..
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 4, 2013. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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