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  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    I seem to be doing ok.. :)
    http://bit.ly/16HnjyP
    Including InterOil, it only since first writing about it. I thought investment success was measured in $$ and %.. Silly me. :)

    And yes, I admitted in the article that I was too early assuming they would attract billions from a third party for the LNG plant. It needed govt approval, third party vetting and enough gas for that. It's about the only thing I was wrong about with regard to InterOil.

    And what about your own multiple predictions that the stock price would collapse? Some collapse!

    I remember you quoting your gury Jaxxson from VI arguing the shares were worth $0-$4, in... 2006 that was, LOL.
    Jul 16, 2013. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    The share price tripled from where I started to write on it, only someone like you could say that's irrelevant..

    Perhaps that rise was for a reason, reasons you ignore, the string of achievements in that period:
    - IOC proved it's geological interpretation was right, not Ross Smiths
    - IOC proved the existence of a reef and dolomitization
    - IOC attained govt approval
    - IOC attained independent resource evaluation, with year on year increases in numbers
    - IOC successfully appraised another resource and entered into a farm-out deal with Pacific Rubiales on that
    - IOC entered into discussion with Exxon on PRL15

    Etc. etc.

    Years ago I predicted that the last short argument standing would be that "there will be no deal because there hasn't been one"

    That looks like an accurate prediction, from what I read from you..
    Jul 16, 2013. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    Uhm, it's not me who started referring to comments seven years ago, you did that in your previous comment.

    And what about your string of broken predictions of collapsing share price?

    IOC's shares are only up 200% since my first SA article, how about you?
    http://bit.ly/18h8tlP

    Deal with the following stylized facts (for old-times sake):

    1) IOC can only reasonably be assumed to close a multi-billion dollar deal for an LNG plant after govt. approval, at least several appraisal wells, and independent resource verification. That is, only a couple of years.

    2) Closing such deals can easily take years, and in IOC's case there was the additional complication that the govt. didn't approve their plans with EWC

    3) It's highly unusual to question third party resource reports, unless one has some compelling reasons.
    Jul 15, 2013. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    Hello boston, I was getting worried about you. I predicted years ago that all the short arguments would ultimately collapse in "since there isn't a deal yet, it won't come", and there you go..

    And what about that collapse you promised us since 2007?

    Or all the other nonsense you argued?
    http://bit.ly/OnVRRC
    Jul 15, 2013. 02:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    No.
    Jul 14, 2013. 11:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    Well, I said unusual, not impossible. I also said that one had to provide compelling reasons. Tilson hasn't done so.

    I also argued in the article that resource positions can change after production has commenced, resource evaluations are always best guesses on the basis of the available data at the time.

    Since Tilson doesn't have any data of his own (that much is for sure), he has to explain why he arrives at different conclusions using the same data as GLJ. There have been two other reports looking at the data. These arrived at lower numbers, but that isn't so surprising as these reviews were done at earlier stages, with less wells to work with so considerably more uncertainty.

    I'm not familiar with the details of the Shell case, but wasn't it Shell itself that changed it's own resource numbers, rather than any outside critic?
    Jul 14, 2013. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Destiny's Ground Floor Opportunity Revisited [View article]
    Thanks. I expect it to perform, they will be able to get at least some traction in Clipstream G2, the advantages are simply too compelling, and even a few orders can take revenues and profits quite a lot higher
    Jul 13, 2013. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    Yes, by all means. I have no way of knowing what's in it, so I haven't pre-empted it (like Tilson did), but that doesn't mean I'm not curious..
    Jul 12, 2013. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    Yes, quite, although after having gone through the last couple of years, he probably isn't chuckling anymore. However ridiculous these things have been, they've had at least something of an impact.
    Jul 12, 2013. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    There was a part missing in the comment, so here it is again:

    Here is one way to look at it with the help from some stylized facts:
    - It's usual for multi-billion dollar LNG plant deals to take years
    - It's usual for resource companies to put lipstick on their resource
    - It's very unusual to question resource numbers (let alone the resource itself) from reputable resource vetters, unless one has a compelling reason to do so.

    Tilson focuses on the first two as negatives for IOC and discounts the third as a positive. I focus mainly on the third and tend to discount the first two as negatives, as these are fairly common and alternative explanations are available to explain them.

    I simply think my position is the more rational one, unless somebody shows me compelling evidence it isn't.

    Tilson could ask me after how many more years without a deal I'll start to lose faith in it. I would answer that it depends on what the reasons for the delay are.

    I cold ask him after how many more successful wells in Antelope he stops questioning the resource report and the resource. I'm sort of curious about the answer.

    I've nothing against Tilson, his long book is ok, he does charity, but he should provide substantiation for his questioning of the resource and resource reports. This isn't done without having compelling reasons, and he has yet to provide any.
    Jul 12, 2013. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    Here is one way to look at it with the help from some stylized facts:
    - It's usual for multi-billion dollar LNG plant deals
    - It's usual for resource companies to put lipstick on their resource
    - It's very unusual to question resource numbers (let alone the resource itself) from reputable resource vetters, unless one has a compelling reason to do so.

    Tilson focuses on the first two as negatives for IOC and discounts the third as a positive. I focus mainly on the third and tend to discount the first two as negatives, as these are fairly common and alternative explanations are available to explain them.

    I simply think my position is the more rational one, unless somebody shows me compelling evidence it isn't.
    Jul 12, 2013. 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    I think even with a single well in Antelope, or perhaps even after the Elk wells (they did struggle for months to contain Elk1 because of the high pressure and they didn't drill all of it as a result) it's natural to meet interested parties. There was a resource estimate at the time that varied from 3 to 18Tcf, mostly depending whether there was matrix porosity or not.

    Any resource potentially of that size was going to meet interested parties "joining our acreage" as the quote above says. And it could even be that some of the quotes were somewhat unfortunate, or that people (including myself at the time, mea culpa) were too quick to make the mental connection between interested party and one that would sign up for a multi-billion dollar LNG plant, but that's quite something else than "joining our acreage". It should have been clear that significant appraisal work was still ahead, and that it wasn't very likely that a big partner would legally commit billions of dollars for an LNG plant before that.

    Apart from that, I think many resource companies are given to put a little lipstick on their resources. I forgot exactly which, but it was the CEO of either Horizon or Talisman who argued they have 11Tcf in PNG.

    And why should we believe them now? We don't have to, everyone should believe what he or she wants, but I'll just stick to GLJ's assessment, unless someone reveals any even half compelling fact, data or argumentation why I shouldn't.

    And what I find curious about Tilson's argument (apart from not substantiating it) is that he has been saying the same thing for five years. He hasn't changed his position even after two more very successful wells have been drilled in Antelope.
    Jul 12, 2013. 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Elk/Antelope Resource Revisited [View article]
    So, every company that John Thomas ever promoted is a scam?
    And what about the Citron guy himself?
    http://bit.ly/18RSTjt
    Jul 12, 2013. 09:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Decline Of The West? [View article]
    The same "idiots" that are lending now. With the policies you propose, the economy shrinks, tax receipts shrinks, nominal GDP shrinks so the countries have to borrow ever more. That's what Evans Pritchard has named the 'denominator' effect, or countries chasing their own tails. I would say that's idiot.
    Jul 12, 2013. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Decline Of The West? [View article]
    Freddy, read the following article at least twice.
    http://bit.ly/14Jrv30

    Take on board that this guy is a monetarist, not a Keynesian, and that he's The Telegraph, a conservative newspaper main economic commentator.

    Still think austerity is a good idea in the middle of a depression?
    Jul 10, 2013. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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