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  • The Ticking Time Bomb Under The World Economy [View article]
    I'm aware of the structural reforms as "an advantage of the euro" (basically forcing countries to embark on these because of lack of alternatives). I've even argued to abolish the euro, but not just yet (to give structural reforms time).

    However, I think the negatives far outweigh the positives. How is the periphery going to reclaim competitiveness if core inflation is 1%? They have to deflate (and some of that are close, or already doing that), but that sends their debt trajectories outward, it isn't pretty.
    Jan 2 01:19 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The U.S. Bankrupt? [View article]
    ["The real issue is not the percentage debt is to GDP But the enormity of it and who can and will finance it."]

    There happens to be a world savings glut. The deficit has come down at record pace and is at a level where public debt/GDP is more or less stable under normal conditions (5% nominal GDP growth). There are only two risks:
    - Medical spending
    - An escalation of interest rates

    Medical spending is slowing down, and even if foreigners were starting to sell US bonds en masse (which isn't in their interest, and there isn't much of an alternative), this will devalue the dollar which could actually be positive for economic growth (the lesson from France in the 1920s).

    And your rant about QE is directed at the wrong article (and is entirely misplaced anyway, but that's another story).

    The Fed's holding of public debt has gone down as a % of the outstanding debt, not up.

    Despite QE, and these foreign governments keep on buying. If I got a penny for all the times I heard over the last couple of decades that the foreigners would stop buying US bonds, I would be very rich by now.
    Dec 20 03:13 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear NQ Mobile: Help Us Help You [View article]
    It's actually refreshing to see that there still are some articles from the short side that seem to be written in good faith, for that alone I thank you, and the questions are relevant. Toro and Macquarie came away satisfied from pursuing Yidatong, and a Toro video showed that they indeed process payments.

    Still far from any smoking gun though. These inconsistencies in the answers might mean something, but then again, they might just be inconsistencies. You could be right that NQ could process transactions more efficiently (you haven't demonstrated that, by the way), but then again, NQ will hardly be the only company which could do something more efficient in-house, rather than using a third party (or the reverse).

    This is a long way from all those blistering MW accusations though, lets not forget that either.
    Dec 5 12:57 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Muddy Waters NQ Mobile Report Card [View article]
    Or perhaps you can't read. The 0-7 record refers to post reverse merger era, in which the low hanging fruit disappeared..
    Nov 11 02:29 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Test Of NQ Mobile's Credibility [View article]
    And this proves what? The only thing that becomes clearer by the day is that MW doesn't have a smoking gun but their efforts cleverly shifted the burden of proof onto NQ.

    ["First, credibility is important and credibility on these "small" issues may be correlated with credibility on larger issues"]

    If only you would apply your above statement with equal force to MW, who lost their credibility on arguing 90% of revenues are fake, partners aren't there, level 2 cash proves its not there, Yidatong's relation with NQ proves they roundtrip fake revenues, Yidatong itself doesn't exist (they couldn't even find them), high DSO proves they fake revenues, etc. etc.
    Nov 7 04:02 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Using Sino-Forest Tactics To Delay The Inevitable? [View article]
    Macquarie just flatly stand behind them this morning, and we would be a little wary about using Chinese newspaper articles citing "industry specialists"
    We also are not terribly impressed by this guild by association type of article above, but do your own DD

    The MW report is not without its weak points itself. Describing NQ's security software as akin to malware while it has been certified by Westcoast labs and extensively researched by the likes of America Movil, seems a bit of a stretch to us. But once again, do your own DD
    Oct 28 10:14 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The U.S. Suffer Japanese Lost Decades? [View article]
    You're entitled to your opinion but I'm not sure that's a fair assessment, moatfrog. It's a lengthy article with a fair amount of links, graphs, and research that went into it. I'm sure you can find articles that required considerably less effort to produce on SA.
    Oct 25 11:07 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Keynesians [View article]
    ["it fails to answer the question of why there was a bubble in housing to begin with"]

    This is an article explaining what Keynesianism is, not one explaining bubbles. However, the latter isn't difficult to explain:
    By securitizing mortgages into extremely complex tradable products, banks found a way to abnegate from what should be their primary economic function, the assessment of creditworthiness. They could simply sell a mortgage to anyone that could sign half an autograph, repackage the product and hide the risk in a complex derivative, and sell the latter so that the risk doesn't linger on their balance sheet. Rinse and repeat. Mortgage lending became a volume business, robosigning and all.
    Jan 24 03:22 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Manager Sees Many Troubling Signs With NQ Mobile [View article]
    From the 10 previous articles, Goldbaum's main raison d'etre is to write anti-NQ pieces full of hypotheticals and innuendos, invariably from anonymous sources and with as many efforts at establishing guilt by association as one can possibly stuff in a single article.

    But all that innuendo can't hide that the shorts do not have anything remotely like a smoking gun.
    Jan 7 01:28 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There's More Downside To Come For InterOil [View article]
    [" One of the smartest short sellers I know posts under the handle "hawkeye901" on"]

    It really is funny. You start off with complaining about anonymous message board trolls.

    Then you cite as sources for your conclusion...

    Anonymous message board trolls, trying to promote one of them by arguing he's the smartest one you know. Good to know.

    All the while ignoring the three independent resource evaluation reports, based on well data produced by independent reputable companies like Schlumberger and Weatherford that give a rather different picture.

    So the short thesis is, ignore the reputable parties, cite anonymous fellow shorts as experts instead, people we don't know, we don't know their qualifications, but we do know that they do not have access to most of these independently produced well data.

    It's a circular argument, shorts simply citing other shorts.

    I again put it to you that Ross Smith, who was critical, and is actually a more reputable party, waved the white flag as soon as the top of the reef was hit in Antelope1

    I put it to you that even the geologist hired by Minkow (now in jail again) argued that EA was likely a significant find. And he only had one well to work with.

    I put it to you that GLJ has put a P50 of 9.9Tcfe and this is the only party that has worked with well data from all three wells.

    GC only had two wells to work with, but nevetheless arrived at 6.6Tcf (excluding liquids). Its highly likely that including Antelope 3 data would impact that figure in a positive way. Their P10 figure is 12Tcf, so apparently they did see some upside even after just two wells..

    You can cite as many anonymous message board trolls, with unknown qualifications and lacking access to most relevant data, as you like in a circular fashion, the fact that you completely ignore these report speaks volumes.
    Dec 10 11:13 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The U.S. Suffer Japanese Lost Decades? [View article]
    ["This article is the classic macroeconomist folly. Looking at the economy in aggregate provides the rationalization that monetary and fiscal policies should target outcomes using the heavy hand of government.
    However, when the oligarchs of banking and business own the congress, the White House, and the regulators, the use of government becomes a hired gun."]

    If that is the case, then why not use some "macroeconomist folly" to counterbalance that?

    ["Spending $1 trillion a year more than you take in is not fiscal austerity"]
    The govt isn't spending $1 trillion a year more than it takes in and you've just redefined the concept of austerity. It is discretionary cuts in spending and/or tax increases that is austerity. A budget deficit is influenced mostly by the state of the economy. A recession in and by itself will create a huge deficit, simply because tax receipts (which are proportional to asset values, profits, incomes and wages) fall.

    The alternative of not recapitalizing banks (which not all was done with tax money) would have been far worse.
    Oct 25 11:13 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Exactly Is So Objectionable About Obamacare? [View article]
    Leaving a state just because you don't like (near) universal healthcare provision? Wow!

    Why not generalize this, you could leave the US if you don't like Obamacare. However, you would have a bit of a problem to decide where to live, as most other developed countries have universal healthcare with much heavier state involvement..

    Or you might actually experience that these systems more or less work (nothing is perfect) and aren't half way down the road to serfdom..
    Oct 11 01:02 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The U.S. Economic Recovery So Weak? [View article]
    Thanks for that! Always interesting to see people creating their own economics, in which all resources are always fully employed..
    Jun 18 01:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Slow Pace Is Missing Out On The Natural Gas Arbitrage [View article]
    ["The investor debate has raged on for years: is InterOil sitting on a perpetual cash cow, or is it all a bunch of "hot air"? "]
    There are three independent resource evaluators that say it's not. One has done so three years running, with its first report available online in its entirety.

    In addition, ALL well data are produced by third party companies (the likes of Weatherford and Schlumberger), as InterOil doesn't do any of its testing. The Antelope well data in particular are pretty impressive.

    You're continued efforts to cast doubt on this can, at this stage, only be taken as being in bad faith.

    Further bad faith is the following quote:
    ["Getting back to basics, InterOil hasn't even proven the gas reserves yet. They only have gotten estimates from third party consultants and geologists. Upon speaking to an energy analyst, not proving the reserves yet is a big red flag. "Prove your reserves already!" he said."]
    What "energy analyst" would say a thing like this is simply beyond me. Highly likely you've simply made this up.

    You might also have mentioned that Pacific Rubiales (PRE) actually paid more than $300M for a 10% stake in gas that is even less "proved"
    The fact that you don't even mention this in your article again speaks volumes of its intentions, which can only be described as being in bad faith. Quoting someone from Yahoo, a cesspool of a message board anyway but this person posting for the very first time, it's basically a joke.

    ["Today, seven months later, there has been no sign that the major partners like Shell, BP or Chevron have any interest."]

    Perhaps you should do a bit more research. There are signs for those that look in the right direction, which you have no intention of doing. Shell came back to PNG, Chevron was there, per Treasury minster, Exxon already is there, JKM interest has been mentioned by Wall Street Journal..

    ["InterOil claimed to be in talks with Chevron to fulfill this operator role, although Chevron had yet to make a formal statement on the matter."]
    InterOil didn't claim such thing. It was the Treasury Minister.

    ["From my research, I find it very unlikely that InterOil will find a major partner in the next six months."]

    You're entitled to your opinion, but what "research" is it based on? LNG markets in Asia are booming and IOC license area contains two big gas and liquids finds, one of which is third party vetted multiple times. There is no reason to assume that companies wouldn't be interested, I see deals for resources that are significantly more expensive to develop (unconventional gas, deep sea stuff, etc.) left right and center.
    Jun 6 04:07 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: 1 Question, 5 Answers? [View article]
    And this is supposed to prove that 90% of their revenue is fake? Speaking about shifting stories..
    Nov 4 03:56 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment