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  • NQ Mobile: When Emotion Trumps Reason, Opportunity Arises [View article]
    ["But upon further examination the letter is actually a veiled attempt to discredit all independent special committees"]

    Yes, that was also my initial conclusion and I'm still standing by that. One could even argue it's a veiled admission of retreat. Here is the playbook:
    - Make big complex claims of fraud which can't be instantly assessed so they create panic and a selloff
    - Shift the burden of proof onto the defenders
    - Try to discredit whatever proof is offered
    - Thereby frame the security as controversial and better to be avoided.

    Seen it in action quite a few times already..
    Dec 31 11:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman Versus ZeroHedge [View article]
    Gentlemen, could we all stay civil. SA is one of the last fora where different schools of economic thought can meet and discuss, lets not break that..
    Nov 16 05:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff II [View article]
    ["It seems like you prefer a powerful Centralized economic system controlled by a few bankers."]

    It depends to a considerable extent on circumstances. I start off from the market, but then I see market failures, some of which require intervention by the government (like now, keeping demand close to capacity).

    I don't think I've ever written anything that could be interpreted as being in favor of a centralized system controlled by a few bankers..

    ["The reality is that Peter realizes that free market economy is utopian in nature."]

    Yes, and I'm distinctly anti-utopian. I'm simply trying to sift through evidence on different policy actions in different countries, combined with economic studies as to their likely outcomes, to see what works.
    Nov 11 10:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff II [View article]
    ["I realize that you think free market economic theory is not preferable to a centralized fascist state"]

    I'm not trying to make big claims like that, just sifting through the evidence to assess different economic policy options and their likely outcomes.
    Nov 11 09:53 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Exactly Is So Objectionable About Obamacare? [View article]
    ["Govt should enforce contracts and uphold the laws, provide a defense and infrastructure to its citizens."]

    Infrastructure, did you just say infrastructure??!

    ["In 2013, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave the country a ā€œDā€ grade for the state of its roads, dams, transit, aviation, and school infrastructure, estimating that $3.6 trillion in investment is needed by 2020"]

    But, somehow, I have a feeling you're not enthusiastic of remedying some of that, prefering free market "solutions":
    Oct 11 12:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nokia Still A Buy? [View article]
    Yes, that happens when you get older, old names seem to stick. Sorry.
    Jul 1 10:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was InterOil's Chairman Engaged In A Conflict Of Interest With Calvin College And The Fuller Fund? [View article]
    I previously wrote an article about the InterOil shorts
    Arguing that, rather than "conviction shorts" (as one of them put it), they change arguments faster than Imelda Marcos changed shoes. They just throw stuff at the wall to see what sticks, if anything. At the end, they can always say IOC is "controversial" ("hey, look at all these issue!") Thanks for the confirmation.

    If I shorted at $50 and had to pay 70%+ interest rates to maintain my position, I would send in a heavy hitter. You know, someone who actually understands the industry..
    Mar 26 09:41 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Has Not Been Any Supply-Side Revolution [View article]
    Than expatsp, but even the 'trolls' cannot escape the fact that investment has gone down instead of up, despite all the tax cuts and the inescapable logic that mass production needs mass consumption to keep going.
    Sep 6 08:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Has Not Been Any Supply-Side Revolution [View article]
    Marxism?? I think you've got your terms mixed up. It's got nothing to do with that, but hey, it's always a great idea to label something with something entirely inappropriate which you then can bash as a straw man..
    Sep 6 08:30 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Have InterOil's Partners Gone? [View article]
    It has been put to you several times that you're completely missing the point here, or worse.

    According to your "logic" Shell not having access to the data room is "proof" the resource has no commercial value (despite all available resource and well data suggesting at the minimum it's not only viable, but on the cheaper end to develop).

    Apart from the fact that there are other, more logical explanations for Shell not having access to the dataroom, if they really have something to "hide" this "logic" is only valid if NOBODY has access to it.

    Which forces us to believe IOC has been able to hide a charade, using three different IB's twiddling thumbs for a year. Already absurd enough in and by itself, but at a minimum, one would expect the PNG govt to get fed up with this.

    But guess what, EXACTLY the opposite is happening. Yes, part of it (Duma) was critical, but recently changed track, suspending the 6 month termination letter and issuing conciliatory statements. Now it emerges the PNG govt. is willing to amend that 2009 agreement (they're forming a negotiation team).

    Apparently there must have been some progress on the ground for them to do this. Rather than 'disappearing' partners, the only thing likely here is appearing partners, with which to negotiate..
    Aug 21 03:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence Suggests InterOil's Gas Wells Aren't Commercially Viable [View article]
    This article, like your previous ones on this company, are simply in bad faith. To argue that wells are not commercially viable, these are wells that have 1175ft and 2278ft of NET pay, 8.8% and 14% of AVERAGE porosity, established world-record flow rates of 382mmcf/d and 704mmcf/d respectively, is simply nonsense. These wells consists to a considerable extent of dolomized reef, which is some of the best resource rock out there, what other wells in other infinitely smaller resources have done is completely irrelevant, it's simply in bad faith to argue it is. The Elk/Antelope resource has been vetted by three different independent resource evaluators, with one (GLJ of Canada) making its first report publicly available in its entirety.

    Apart from that, talks have been ongoing the last couple of days between InterOil, prospective partners, and the new PNG government. Formerly critical Energy Minister Duma has now changed his stance to supportive

    You may want to go to Pacific Rubiales website and read what they think of the Triceratops resource (which in valuation models by analyst as of yet receives ZERO value as of yet, company valuations are based on Elk/Antelope resource exclusively.

    This is simply a nasty hit job, and a bad one at that by shorts who have seen the change in stance of the PNG government and fear a deal announcement could be imminent.

    And to base your article on anonymous hedge fund managers who distort the truth (IOC has NEVER promised a deal with Shell, it's complete nonsense), well..
    Aug 17 09:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The U.S. Economic Recovery So Weak? [View article]
    Taxes have been decreased (or tax cuts extended), not increased. Regulation doesn't feature in business surveys as an important impediment. Yes, there has been Romneycare, uhh, Obamacare and Dodd-Frank. The latter has already been shot down by lobbying into a harmless pussy, which only leaves the former. Bit of a stretch to blame the tepid recovery on that while we have so many more convincing explanations available..
    Jun 18 01:16 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity + Gold Standard = Greece [View article]
    I agree that the world is drowning in fiscal ignorance, people seem to think that austerity would increase growth despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary..

    As it happens, the world is also drowning in debt, but that is mostly private debt

    As a result of which debtors are saving more, spending and borrowing less. Now, what would happen if many economic agents start spending less? Could it be output will decrease? What would happen if, on top of that, the government started to spend less as well? Could it be that the decrease in output would accelerate?

    Still not sure? Look at what happened in the 1930s, or in Greece..

    Could it be that if output decreased sufficiently and if tight monetary policies were followed as some here would like, prices would start to fall and the REAL value of debt would increase, worsening the problem and creating a vicious cycle (not to mention imploding banks)?
    Mar 16 09:58 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Days Seem Numbered As Soros Dumps Shares [View article]
    Uhm, no.
    1) The resource (Elk/Antelope) has been vetted by no less than three independent companies (GLJ, Knowledge Reservoir, and Gaffney Cline, GLJ did so three years running and their first report is in the public domain)
    2) Apart from that, all the testing (logging, flow tests, coring, etc.) at the wells is done by third parties such as Weatherford and Schlumberger so there is no reason those data are corrupted.
    3) And of course, there have been ill informed or ill willed people like you saying this stuff for years. Some of them are in jail (Minkow), some of them have just quid (Andy Left), some of them argued what you just argued without being able to put up a single even half credible argument (Tilson).

    The simple fact is, the resource is real (say three independent resource vetting firms), it is of high quality (dolomized reef, 1175 and 2277ft of NET pay, world record flow rates, 8.8% and 14% average porosity), according to test data from Weatherford and Schlumberger.

    So this article is the umpteenth red herring, that is likely to bite the dust soon as InterOil is very close to the pay zone of a resource (Triceratops/Bwata) which we know has gas (per well drilled by previous license holder) and has very similar seismic characteristics as Antelope.

    It's not a good idea to bet against that.
    Feb 28 07:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman, DeLong Wrong on Government Intervention as a Solution [View article]
    Ever heard of a balance sheet recession? Ever read any Koo? Ever considered the fact that in 2008, many economic variables (demand, GDP, trade, employment, etc.) were sinking as fast as after the 1929 crash, but somehow, that fall was arrested (unlike the great depression)? Ever wondered what was different this time? Could it be the policy reaction? If not, what else?

    Ever wondered that if many households are over-leveraged and cutting back spending because their assets are sinking, somebody else in the economy has to take up the slack because otherwise the economy spirals down? Ever read Fisher about deflationary-debt spirals?

    Ever considered the dogmatic "get the government out of markets way" type of "solutions" you propose were actually a big part of what caused the crisis? Ever heard of asymmetrical information problems in markets, more especially in financial markets?

    Making a cheap caricature out of Krugman doesn't do you any favours. Anything wrong with this?

    In case you try, no, I'm not in favour of big government, nor am I a socialist, but markets have their problems too, as we've amply seen. Setting the financial markets free has created havoc. The financial system was stable from the regulatory responses as a response to the 1930s depression until deregulation (both by democrats and republicans) messed them up.

    Markets are wonderful things, but for a free market economy to work, markets, financial markets especially, cannot work properly without regulation. People like you believe in simple textbook form of markets and are completely blind to how markets can dysfunction, even in the face of overwhelming evidence the last couple of years.
    Mar 23 01:42 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment