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Shaun Currie, CFA

 
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  • La-Z-Boy: Update After Quarterly Earnings
       • Mon, Aug. 25 LZB Comment!

    Summary

    • LZB is facing industry-wide weak traffic, but the conversion rate is good.
    • The company is launching a new e-commerce site, has a successful launch of its Urban Attitude line, and is accelerating the pace of its real estate strategy.
    • The short-term could be weak, but the company is making all the right moves to win in the long-run.
  • American Eagle Outfitters: An Update After Quarterly Earnings
       • Sat, Aug. 23 AEO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • AEO recently reported quarterly earnings, which sent shares higher.
    • Sales were weak, and guidance was muted, but strong gross margins and better guidance for gross margins helped the stock.
    • The company gave great detail around its store economics and real estate strategy.
    • The Aerie business looks to have bottomed.
    • The company will continue to invest for growth, especially internationally.
  • The Fresh Market: An Update After Quarterly Earnings
       • Sat, Aug. 23 TFM 3 Comments

    Summary

    • TFM reported earnings on Thursday night, sending shares higher in the aftermarket.
    • Commentary was weak, and the move seems more to due with high short interest.
    • The business model seems to now be in shift, especially from a real estate perspective.
  • Quantum Fuel Systems: Review After Major Announcements And Quarterly Earnings
       • Thu, Aug. 21 QTWW 6 Comments

    Summary

    • QTWW chose to walk away from its work with Agility Fuel Systems in order to have flexibility with new customers.
    • Growth prospects sounds good, but commentary on capacity has been weak for three consecutive quarters.
    • One potential area of upside is the company's work with GM on the Impala and light-truck CNG programs.
  • Ideal Power: Review After Quarterly Earnings And Recent Announcements
       • Thu, Aug. 21 IPWR 3 Comments

    Summary

    • IPWR signed a multi-year purchase agreement with Sharp Electronics.
    • The company's hybrid converter has been launched.
    • There are several multi-billion dollar industries in which PPSA can be disruptive.
  • UQM Technologies: Update After Quarterly Earnings And Management Meeting
       • Thu, Jun. 12 UQM 5 Comments

    Summary

    • After recent earnings and management meeting, we have come away more bullish on the opportunity in China.
    • The passenger car business is not progressing, which we believe to be the reason for the recent decline in the stock, so the company has shifted its focus towards fleets.
    • The company has becoming increasingly more bullish on the China bus market, which is the most important business for UQM.
  • Lands' End: An Overvalued Retailer With More Downside Ahead
       • Thu, Jun. 5 LE 24 Comments

    Summary

    • The bull case on the Lands' End spin-off seems overblown.
    • Lands' End is essentially still a subsidiary of Sears, which will hurt growth and increases risk on an investment.
    • 2013 earnings are unrealistic for 2014 as the company now deals with added costs to its business.
  • Callaway Golf: The First Move In A Larger, Downward Trend
       • Wed, May. 28 ELY 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent commentary by Dick's Sporting Goods was a worst-case scenario for Callaway Golf.
    • Current consensus estimates for 2014 and 2015 will now need to be cut by at least 40%, as well as the possibility for multiple contraction.
    • Secular trends in the golf industry make long term-growth forecasts unrealistic.
  • Pier 1 Imports: E-Commerce Push + Increased Share Buybacks = Outsized Returns
       • Thu, May. 22 PIR 8 Comments

    Summary

    • We believe that Pier 1 Imports provides a unique combination of value, growth, and enhanced shareholder returns at a discounted valuation.
    • 2014 estimates seem reasonable, if not conservative.
    • New term loan provides the opportunity for sizable share repurchases over the next several years.
    • We believe that the company will eventually get over 30% of its revenue from omni-channel initiatives, creating the opportunity for store rationalization and margin expansion.
  • 2014 Ira Sohn Contest Finalist: Long Chemtura Corp
       • Fri, May. 9 CHMT 10 Comments

    Summary

    • This investment idea was recently one of four finalists for the 2014 Ira Sohn Investment Idea Contest, which was held on May 5.
    • Over the past several years, the management team at Chemtura has divested assets to become a pure-play on industrial specialty chemicals.
    • The recent announcement of the sale of its AgroSolutions business will allow the company to improve its over-leveraged balance sheet and return large amounts of cash to shareholders.
    • After the tender offer is completed, we expect to company to continue to pursue the sale of the remaining businesses.
    • Even without a sale of the business or its remaining pieces, we still believe there is attractive upside in the stock.
  • Ignite Restaurant Group: Hidden Value In The Company's Attractive Assets
       • Thu, Apr. 17 IRG 21 Comments

    Summary

    • IRG's valuation has been weighed down by the Macaroni Grill acquisition, but the company's other assets are worth much more that the current enterprise value.
    • Recent management shake-up at Macaroni Grill and management commentary leads me to believe that this segment is stabilizing.
    • If we were to assign a valuation of zero to Macaroni Grill, instead of its current negative valuation, we could see IRG's stock move into the $20-25 range.
    • Even if the business does not stabilize, the segment's attractive real estate portfolio allows for conversions to Brick House Taverns at a lower cost than new builds, or possible monetization.
  • Abraxas Petroleum: A 'Sweet-Spot' For Your Portfolio
       • Tue, Apr. 15 AXAS 9 Comments

    Summary

    • AXAS has recently undergone a transformation as the company has disposed of non-core assets and has cleaned up its balance sheet over the last several years.
    • Recent management presentation leads us to believe that AXAS has potentially found a “sweet-spot” in the Eagle Ford Shale.
    • Guidance for 2014 production leads us to believe that the company will enter 2015 producing at least 6,000 barrels per day, with potential upside from Eagle Ford expansion.
    • Management’s implied guidance for production and debt levels leads us to believe that 2015 EBITDA will come in at about $90MM, with potential upside in the future.
    • A normalized valuation plus non-core assets would give the company a price target of $6, but potential upside leads us to believe that’s the company could be valued at $8.
  • Monster Worldwide: Past The Bottom, With Inflection Point In Sight
       • Tue, Apr. 15 MWW 7 Comments

    Summary

    • After the company's latest earnings call, I came away more bullish on my MWW position.
    • The are clear signs that the US Careers business (the largest piece of MWW) is past the bottom and poised for growth.
    • Upcoming May strategy meeting provides the catalyst necessary to push shares higher.
  • Bally Technologies: Macro Headwinds Create Attractive, Best-In-Class Buying Opportunity
       • Tue, Apr. 1 BYI 7 Comments

    Summary

    • BYI's recent weakness is attributable to a weak environment for US slot sales.
    • Part of the weakness is due to announcements by its major competitor, which has overly impacted BYI's stock price.
    • BYI is the best-in-class company and has already diversified itself away from US slots, yet it trades at a historically low multiple.
    • Several major tailwinds will begin to kick in over the next 12 months, which should send shares 50% higher.
  • American Eagle Outfitters: Risk/Reward Now Becomes Too Compelling To Ignore
       • Tue, Mar. 25 AEO 28 Comments

    Summary

    • The current bear thesis on AEO is contradicted by the company's brand relevance rankings.
    • Brand relevance should provide support for the company to weather the current teen retailing storm, setting the company up for future market share gains.
    • The current risk/reward dynamics of the stock are compelling.
  • Mattress Firm: Roadmap For 2014
       • Fri, Mar. 21 MFRM Comment!

    Summary

    • Strong execution continues at MFRM.
    • 2014 is all about the company's ability to take back some pricing they gave up over the last few quarters.
    • After a 15% run, I am closing my buy recommendation.
  • Ideal Power: Part Two: Update After Quarterly Earnings And Management Meeting
       • Sun, Mar. 16 IPWR 3 Comments

    Summary

    • After recent quarterly earnings and a management meeting, I am now more bullish on IPWR's long-term future.
    • Major announcements should be coming in the next several months, which could end up being the announcement of major commercial production.
    • I now consider IPWR a long-term core holding.
  • UQM Technologies: Many Clues That An Inflection Point Is Upon Us
       • Sat, Mar. 15 UQM 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors may currently be focusing on the car opportunity with Audi and Saab, but overlooking the real upside in the short term, which is a major bus deal in China.
    • The company's recent secondary offering and announcement of ISO/TS 16949 Certification lead me to believe that a bus deal in China is imminent.
    • Even if this bus deal does not come to fruition in the short run, the company has several other opportunities that could expand over the coming year.
  • Quantum Fuel Systems: An Update After Quarterly Earnings And Realization Of Price Target
       • Fri, Mar. 14 QTWW 14 Comments

    Summary

    • QTWW recently reported quarterly earnings and hit our previous price target.
    • After review, consensus estimates are still too low.
    • I am increasing my price target to at least $15.
  • Lumber Liquidators: Roadmap For 2014
       • Tue, Mar. 11 LL 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Lumber Liquidator's stock responded favorably to recent earnings, mostly due to strong gross margin guidance.
    • 2014 is all about the company's ability to drive average ticket through sales of higher priced product and add-on accessories.
    • This performance will be seen on the gross margin line, which is the most important metric to look at in 2014.
  • La-Z-Boy: Recent Selloff Creates Attractive Buying Opportunity
       • Sat, Mar. 8 LZB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent selloff is unjustified considering that recent results have been very strong.
    • Analyst estimates for revenue growth seem unreasonably low, setting up the company for a possible re-valuation in the next 6-12 months.
    • Even if this re-valuation does not occur, the company will begin to accelerate its returns of capital to shareholders.
  • Ideal Power: Reviewing This Recent IPO With Massive Potential
       • Thu, Mar. 6 IPWR 8 Comments

    Summary

    • IPWR's PPSA technology has the potential to be a disruptive technology in the energy storage and EV charging space.
    • The company recently completed an IPO and built out its management team as it turns its focus to commercialization.
    • The announcement of positive contract news could send shares (current market cap $60mm) much higher.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch: Multiple Ways To Realize Higher Returns
       • Wed, Mar. 5 ANF 6 Comments
  • Chico's FAS: I'm Buying This Dip
       • Wed, Mar. 5 CHS 13 Comments
  • Bravo Brio Restaurant Group: Roadmap For 2014
       • Wed, Feb. 26 BBRG 1 Comment
  • U.S Global Investor: What You Need To Know Before Considering An Investment
       • Fri, Feb. 21 GROW 2 Comments
  • Select Comfort: 70% Upside Ahead
       • Sat, Feb. 15 SCSS 14 Comments
  • 1-800-Flowers.com: What You Need To Know For 2014
       • Fri, Jan. 31 FLWS 1 Comment
  • Fiesta Restaurant Group: Balance Sheet Recapitalization Creates Upside To Estimates
       • Fri, Jan. 31 FRGI 11 Comments
  • Multimedia Games: Possible Near-Term Downside Headed Into Quarterly Earnings
       • Wed, Jan. 29 MGAM Comment!
  • Noodles & Company: Reviewing The Bull And Bear Cases For Investment
       • Sat, Jan. 25 NDLS 6 Comments
  • Collectors Universe: Reviewing The Bull And Bear Cases For Investment
       • Fri, Jan. 24 CLCT 10 Comments