Seeking Alpha

Shaun Currie, CFA

 
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PRO Top Ideas
Top Ideas are high-conviction long or short ideas focused on market mispricings with asymmetric risk/reward profiles.
  • Lands' End: An Overvalued Retailer With More Downside Ahead
       • Thu, Jun. 5 SHLD, LE 24 Comments

    Summary

    • The bull case on the Lands' End spin-off seems overblown.
    • Lands' End is essentially still a subsidiary of Sears, which will hurt growth and increases risk on an investment.
    • 2013 earnings are unrealistic for 2014 as the company now deals with added costs to its business.
  • Callaway Golf: The First Move In A Larger, Downward Trend
       • Wed, May. 28 DKS, ELY 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent commentary by Dick's Sporting Goods was a worst-case scenario for Callaway Golf.
    • Current consensus estimates for 2014 and 2015 will now need to be cut by at least 40%, as well as the possibility for multiple contraction.
    • Secular trends in the golf industry make long term-growth forecasts unrealistic.
  • Pier 1 Imports: E-Commerce Push + Increased Share Buybacks = Outsized Returns
       • Thu, May. 22 TJX, WSM, PIR 8 Comments

    Summary

    • We believe that Pier 1 Imports provides a unique combination of value, growth, and enhanced shareholder returns at a discounted valuation.
    • 2014 estimates seem reasonable, if not conservative.
    • New term loan provides the opportunity for sizable share repurchases over the next several years.
    • We believe that the company will eventually get over 30% of its revenue from omni-channel initiatives, creating the opportunity for store rationalization and margin expansion.
  • 2014 Ira Sohn Contest Finalist: Long Chemtura Corp
       • Fri, May. 9 CHMT 10 Comments

    Summary

    • This investment idea was recently one of four finalists for the 2014 Ira Sohn Investment Idea Contest, which was held on May 5.
    • Over the past several years, the management team at Chemtura has divested assets to become a pure-play on industrial specialty chemicals.
    • The recent announcement of the sale of its AgroSolutions business will allow the company to improve its over-leveraged balance sheet and return large amounts of cash to shareholders.
    • After the tender offer is completed, we expect to company to continue to pursue the sale of the remaining businesses.
    • Even without a sale of the business or its remaining pieces, we still believe there is attractive upside in the stock.
  • Ignite Restaurant Group: Hidden Value In The Company's Attractive Assets
       • Thu, Apr. 17 IRG 21 Comments

    Summary

    • IRG's valuation has been weighed down by the Macaroni Grill acquisition, but the company's other assets are worth much more that the current enterprise value.
    • Recent management shake-up at Macaroni Grill and management commentary leads me to believe that this segment is stabilizing.
    • If we were to assign a valuation of zero to Macaroni Grill, instead of its current negative valuation, we could see IRG's stock move into the $20-25 range.
    • Even if the business does not stabilize, the segment's attractive real estate portfolio allows for conversions to Brick House Taverns at a lower cost than new builds, or possible monetization.
  • Bally Technologies: Macro Headwinds Create Attractive, Best-In-Class Buying Opportunity
       • Tue, Apr. 1 IGT, KNM, MGAM 7 Comments

    Summary

    • BYI's recent weakness is attributable to a weak environment for US slot sales.
    • Part of the weakness is due to announcements by its major competitor, which has overly impacted BYI's stock price.
    • BYI is the best-in-class company and has already diversified itself away from US slots, yet it trades at a historically low multiple.
    • Several major tailwinds will begin to kick in over the next 12 months, which should send shares 50% higher.
  • American Eagle Outfitters: Risk/Reward Now Becomes Too Compelling To Ignore
       • Tue, Mar. 25 ANF, AEO 28 Comments

    Summary

    • The current bear thesis on AEO is contradicted by the company's brand relevance rankings.
    • Brand relevance should provide support for the company to weather the current teen retailing storm, setting the company up for future market share gains.
    • The current risk/reward dynamics of the stock are compelling.
  • UQM Technologies: Many Clues That An Inflection Point Is Upon Us
       • Sat, Mar. 15 UQM 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors may currently be focusing on the car opportunity with Audi and Saab, but overlooking the real upside in the short term, which is a major bus deal in China.
    • The company's recent secondary offering and announcement of ISO/TS 16949 Certification lead me to believe that a bus deal in China is imminent.
    • Even if this bus deal does not come to fruition in the short run, the company has several other opportunities that could expand over the coming year.
  • La-Z-Boy: Recent Selloff Creates Attractive Buying Opportunity
       • Sat, Mar. 8 LZB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent selloff is unjustified considering that recent results have been very strong.
    • Analyst estimates for revenue growth seem unreasonably low, setting up the company for a possible re-valuation in the next 6-12 months.
    • Even if this re-valuation does not occur, the company will begin to accelerate its returns of capital to shareholders.
  • Chico's FAS: I'm Buying This Dip
       • Wed, Mar. 5 CHS 13 Comments
  • Select Comfort: 70% Upside Ahead
       • Sat, Feb. 15 TPX, SCSS 13 Comments
  • Fiesta Restaurant Group: Balance Sheet Recapitalization Creates Upside To Estimates
       • Fri, Jan. 31 FRGI 11 Comments
  • Par Technology: Setting Up To Be The Year For Significant Upside
       • Wed, Jan. 22 PAR 3 Comments
  • Monster Worldwide: Either Way You Slice It, There's Still Upside Ahead
       • Thu, Jan. 9 MWW 5 Comments
  • Agilysys: On The Cusp Of Major Earnings Growth
       • Tue, Jan. 7 AGYS 1 Comment
  • 1-800-Flowers.com: A Growing Brand At A Discounted Valuation
       • Dec. 18, 2013 FTD, AMZN, FLWS 17 Comments
  • JMP Group: Industry Tailwinds And Company-Specific Catalysts Should Boost Stock 50%
       • Dec. 10, 2013 HCAP, JMP 3 Comments
  • John B. Sanfilippo & Son: A Stock You Should Be Nuts About
       • Nov. 28, 2013 DMND, JBSS 22 Comments
  • Quantum Fuel Systems: Inflection Point Has Been Reached, At Least 50% Upside Ahead
       • Nov. 26, 2013 QTWW 14 Comments
  • Buffalo Wild Wings - Strong Execution Will Raise Stock 20%
       • Nov. 13, 2013 BWLD 2 Comments
  • Keep Calm And Buy Craft Brew Alliance
       • Oct. 19, 2013 BUD, SAM, BREW 31 Comments
  • Cabela's Inc.: Growth + Value = 50% Upside
       • Oct. 15, 2013 CAB 17 Comments
  • Bravo Brio Restaurant Group: Recent Presentation Gives Us The Catalysts Necessary For A Buy
       • Oct. 5, 2013 CAKE, BBRG 7 Comments
  • Scholastic Corp: Common Core Refresh Equals Big Rewards
       • Sep. 28, 2013 MHFI, PSO, SCHL 13 Comments
  • Vitamin Shoppe: Sell-Off And 2014 Tailwinds Create Attractive Entry Point - 30% Upside
       • Sep. 28, 2013 AMZN, GNC, VSI 2 Comments
  • The Real Takeover Candidate In Teen Retailing
       • Sep. 26, 2013 AEO, ARO, ANF 14 Comments
  • LSB Industries: The Market Is Underappreciating Coming EPS Growth - 50% Upside
       • Sep. 25, 2013 LXU 7 Comments
  • Perficient, Inc. Is Winning And So Can You - 50% Upside Going Forward
       • Sep. 20, 2013 ACN, CTSH, INFY 4 Comments
  • Hooker Furniture: Company-Specific Risks Create An Opportunity On The Short Side
       • Sep. 18, 2013 BSET, ETH, LZB 2 Comments
  • Interface, Inc: Secular Shift To Carpet Tile Creates 40% Upside
       • Sep. 11, 2013 DXYN, MAR, MHK 2 Comments
  • High Expectations, Even Higher Stock Price: Texas Roadhouse Should Fall At Least 20%
       • Sep. 10, 2013 TXRH 9 Comments
  • Big 5 Sporting Goods - Margin Expansion Story Supports 40% Upside
       • Sep. 5, 2013 DKS, HIBB, BGFV 1 Comment