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Shaun Rein  

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  • Will U.S. Growth Beat China's in 2009? [View article]
    "A key mistake made by the Fed in the 1930s Depression (and one identified by Ben Bernanke in his PhD thesis) was to constrict money supply at a critical juncture after the Wall Street crash, and that is an error the current Fed is taking extreme pains not to repeat. However, Chinese authorities, lacking that institutional memory, are set to repeat this mistake just as the country's merchandise exports slump despite ever increasing export subsidies and a recently depreciating currency."

    Ummm... China announced 2 days ago that it was increasing money supply by 17%...
    Dec 17, 2008. 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Multinational Mistakes: A Lesson for China, Too [View article]
    I will be a little facetious in my response, Larry. You served up a great question for me to sell myself.

    I wish more MNCs did indeed see the value of high end market intelligence since I run a market research firm. And as I wrote in Invest in China's Wedding Fever, china.seekingalpha.com..., one of my analysts just got married and is hunkering for a bigger bonus next year!

    We have found that the best run MNCs are indeed investing the money necessary to get the best market intelligence for international operations. Unlike even a decade ago, international markets accounted for so little revenue. Now, markets like China or India have become of such strategic importance to MNCs, not just for outsourcing but also selling to Chinese and Indian consumer, that companies now realize the importance of good info.

    From my own experience with my clients expanding or just entering China, most of them are best of breed companies whose returns beat the S&P or make a ton of money if they are hedge funds/ VC firms or private firms. Others are turnaround cases that need top-end information to retake lost market share. I once helped a company that was a distressed debt acquisition by a big buy-out fund in New York. I advised them on relocating part of their operations to China. The buy-out fund saw a 8 digit return on their initial investment.

    The good news for investors is that more MNCs are using the consulting services of premium firms like a McKinsey or CMR because the ROI is noticeable. China will fuel more and more the bottom-lines of many MNCs in the coming years like a Corning or Starwood.

    Sorry for the semi-marketing response, but I could not resist it.

    Shaun Rein
    Feb 7, 2007. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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