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Shaun Rein

 
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  • Two More Myths About Business in China [View article]
    Semuren -- you cannot be serious. If you have lived in China for 10 years, you cannot honestly say that the quality of life for people here is not getting better... and certainly it is better than during the Civil War, Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution etc.

    Is everything perfect? Absolutely not. And stories like the one you said about the hospital is heart-breaking and unfortunately true. One of my main goals in life is to set up hospitals/ clinics for poor people in China's countryside.

    But net-net, the last several decades have been better for the majority of Chinese.

    As for savings rates, most economists wrongly argue that Chinese save 40% of their earnings. Pettis has some decent points, though I disagree with most of his conclusions, I do respect him viewpoints. He is basing his conclusions on good facts, I just disagree with the interpretation. But I assure you I know what savings rates are.

    Huangthoms -- you always like to criticize my pieces. that is fine. Good debate is always welcome. However, please re-read some of the pieces I write. It is clear in my latest that I am talking about urban youth. In commentaries that should be 600-1000 words I cannot write about every single segment. So I agree with you that rural youth are different.

    Where did I ever say anything about Japan? Please keep up your criticism for sure, but please base it on what I actually write or which I omit because I am wrong... but not what I make clear I am not including.

    By the way, I am certainly not using anecdotal evidence. For this piece, we drew upon several thousand interviews in 15 cities. Please...

    Nogambler/ rokjok -- thanks for the comments. credit cards are booming. the key is which banks will benefit, which you should keep in mind when investing. china merchants bank is very consumer oriented, while ICBC and Bank of China get terrible satisfaction rates, especially BOChina.

    Yes, more and more white collar executives are here. China is coming on strong and American firms need to adjust.

    Haavbline -- thanks again for your kind comments (I noticed you have written several in the past). Thanks for clarifying my positions to the rest of us here and making it clearer what I am trying to say, with your own excellent insights. What do you do?

    Giuliionginni -- I would strongly suggest you look at China for investing... be careful for sure ... but waiting until 2020... you might miss out. The numbers are positive here for sure... there are concerns in my mind about China's economy but overall it is positive here.

    Gary a: right now chinese consumers accou nt for 1/3 of gdp.. we estimate that to hit 1/2 within 5 years.
    Nov 13, 2009. 08:50 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two More Myths About Business in China [View article]
    Chris Coonan/BlueSky/ Axit/Shark/ Nikola- Thanks for kind comments. I agree with you, just is getting to be a better and better place to live for just about everyone. I first came here in the mid-90s and the quality of life change is palpable. Sure, not everything is perfect but the key is that the trend is towards the better.

    Ricard - I would actually say in urban areas (not rural) that women have more gender equality than just about anywhere in the world. They are becoming the major consumers as more jobs are created that are in the service sector. In fact, in many migrant households the women might be earning more. Foot massage (legitimate) masseuses make more than male counterparts as construction workers. I have written extensively in Forbes in the past on this that you can check out.

    Huangthomas -- thx for comments and insights. Salaries keep going up so for now the lifestyle is sustainable for most... and these kids of sevearl sets of homes that will be given to them because of grandparents.

    The issue is what happens id salaries don't keep going up. Then we would be in a serious problem.

    Bengee- exactly. Life is definitely better for most Chinese. Investors need to look at who is optimistic. Optimism and confidence is a great indicator of how/ where one will spend. Investors should look at that.

    Monkey Man -- thanks for comments but I slightly disagree. The average millionaire in China is 42 years old. Most are younger than that. Because of the Cultural Revolution, there is a lost generation of Chinese businessmen who missed out from around 45 to 65. Take a look at my piece in Forbes called Tap Into China's Swelling Consumer base. It looks at some of your criticisms.
    www.forbes.com/2009/10...

    Alphameister and Tony Daltorio - thanks for the kind comments. I am always very surprised at how pessimistic and bearish Pettis is. I respect him as he is basing his arguments on facts and knowledge but I just don't understand how he can possibly be so negative. There are problems here but nothing that is as disastrous as he makes out.

    For me, most of the bears like Roubini or Roach are interesting reads but one should not get too influenced when making investment decisions. Darn it... the last year has been the best investing climate of all time if you had some cash and were not too scared. Baidu has quadrupled. Ctrip.

    If you looked at the investing pieces I wrote specifically for Seeking Alpha a year ago and before, you would have made a lot of money.

    BD1990 - thx for note. Yes, those rates I marked down are for true credit cards. There are actually about 1.2 billion debit cards in circulation in China.

    TeresaE -- Thanks and I agree with you. Rural poor will quickly catch up and start to consume like urban ones. It is starting to happen. OUr research suggests that the most optimistic consumers are the ones in rural areas right now because they are working for companies (chinese) that have not been hit as hard by crisis and still have access to credit.

    I do think that American firms that get this shift, say a YUM brands or PG, will benefit.

    Graham -- never forget the past for sure. Hiistory is important to know. BUt don't get too stuck in it either. Your parents time in China is very different from today's China.
    Nov 14, 2009. 05:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Is Looking Fragile [View article]
    " “The benchmark one-year lending rate was cut by 27 basis points to 5.31 per cent, while the one-year deposit rate was lowered by the same amount to 2.25 per cent.”

    This is not surprising news, but shows originality - China doesn’t want to be like the US, thus it cuts interest rates in multiple of 27 basis points, not a boring 25 basis points. ""

    Vitaliy, if you are going to point something out like this especially.. please do some research ... the basis points drop 27 basis points is because so many banks in rural areas use abacuses still rather than computers to calculate. It is easier for them to calculate at the 27 level with an abacus rather than the Chinese Govt trying to be original or misguided in policies as so many pundits far from China seem to think.
    Dec 27, 2008. 08:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Ah, another troll who attacks people while hiding behind anonymity. Why don't you become more constructive in your criticisms and actually add to the debate? Be critical if you want, but be professional.

    I thought Seeking Alpha was going to clamp down on useless posters. They should.
    Jul 16, 2012. 11:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    One must look at whether the so-called empty cities are backed by real money... and in most cases they are. Most of the apts bought have been acquired with little leverage/ debt... thus even if prices drop they won't cause a systemic threat.

    The empty cities might mean a misallocation of resources but is not the threat as many analysts seem to think because it is held by end retail consumers, rather than leveraged real estate developers or investors.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of Cheap China Is Growing Near [View article]
    Agreed Ben Gee. Hopefully we can get calm leaders both in China and the US moving forward.
    Dec 14, 2011. 04:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of Cheap China Is Growing Near [View article]
    Appreciate the kind comments afikoman. Indeed, I don't understand most of the rhetoric against China's manufacturing sector - it provided good quality, cheap products for everyday Americans... and did not steal jobs. I don't see a clamoring by Americans to work in clothing mills anymore...
    Dec 14, 2011. 04:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of Cheap China Is Growing Near [View article]
    Thank you Terry . We are in agreement and I just hope rational minds prevail.
    Dec 14, 2011. 04:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks To Own And Stocks To Avoid To Profit From China's Growth - An Interview With China Expert Shaun Rein, Part 1 [View article]
    Hi All,

    This is Shaun Rein, the person that David kindly interviewed. I will be trying to answer as many of the comments here as well as those on Part 2 of the interview that I can. I hope that you enjoy the interview and found it useful for you investing and general interest needs.

    Thanks again to David for the interview. I have been writing for SA for 6 years now, since its very early days. I actually got my start in business writing with SA. Love the resource.
    Dec 3, 2011. 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Where do you actually disagree with what I have written? Let's redirect your criticism towards something more useful. Do you actually think China's economy is about to implode? Give us data points as to why/ how you draw that conclusion. Or do you think electricity is a good proxy?
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of Cheap China Is Growing Near [View article]
    The change is occurring must faster than many realize, daily trading, which is going to severely disrupt supply chains -- and America's consumption way of life -- unless companies can stay ahead of the curve. I am not sure all sectors will be able to move to cheaper locales, as Nike has done...
    Dec 14, 2011. 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks To Own And Stocks To Avoid To Profit From China's Growth - An Interview With China Expert Shaun Rein, Part 1 [View article]
    Webmind: fair points. The govt is concerned about a widening gap between rich and poor and are trying to minimize issues by raising minimum wages. If they cannot address this, there could be problems.

    Instead of telling me to get on a motorcycle and get into the real China, please tell me where you get your data on China and define for me the "real China". My data comes from my team and me going to 15 cities regularly, even up to places like the mountains of Sichuan. I have been living here since the mid 1990s. How about you? Let's use data points to discuss and not get diverted by your other issues. The first half of your post somewhat useful, the second half not so much.
    Dec 4, 2011. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From China's Growth With Sector And Macro Bets - An Interview With China Expert Shaun Rein, Part II [View article]

    Osolemio: on a more personal note, I am the byproduct of the Jewish and chinese Diaspora. My father is Jewish tracing to Germany, and my mother is 5h generation Chinese born in the US, originally working on the Cal. goldmines. Diasporas are fun to analyze..
    Dec 4, 2011. 04:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Judge China on Phantom Facts [View article]
    Tony -- You sure do comment a lot. Where do you disagree with my points? I have refuted quite clearly phantom facts Roubini and Huang put forward. Do you have rational views/ data points that refute mine?

    If so, I would be glad to hear them. Always good to have respectful, professional debate. Until you come out with your real name I will not respond to you anymore.

    Ben Gee: it does seem hard for some to understand that China is evolving in a good way. And nut jobs like to criticize people for pointing out the positive trends.



    It is specifically for my dislike of anonymity that I don't respond to comments often on Seeking Alpha.
    Jul 12, 2011. 10:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, China Will Absolutely Not Collapse [View article]
    China Interest -- What I suggest you do is what my firm and I have done ... we regularly visit about 20 cities in China, 1st-4th tier (sometimes 5th but not as often that is true) and we interview retailers in 100 cities on a regular basis. That does not include the other trips we take for business on a non-regular basis.

    My analysis is based on our research, not taking photos from a newspaper. And it certainly is not derived from sitting in Starbucks in Shanghai.

    If you read my work, you would know that sales and confidence in SH and BJ have been hit hardest while other regions are soaring.

    What do you do and what is your real name? Where are you basing your conclusions? Just on a newspaper article and photo? How many retailers and full data points have you gotten?

    Ben Gee - I agree. Stock and real estate prices might go up and down for sure but the overall economy will not collapse.
    Feb 5, 2010. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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