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Shaun Rein  

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  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    I would be real real real cautious investing in China equities as an individual retail investor unless you have serious money to do due diligence/ or to lose.

    A large part of my firm's business is due diligence for hedge funds. The amount of fraud out there is shocking. Everyday investors are probably better off buying western stocks like Apple, YUM, etc to get a piece of the Chinese growth story.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    And the establishment in 2008 said China was going to collapse far worse than the US... I remember being ridiculed by tons of people then. Well, 4 years later, obviously China withstood the financial crisis better than other markets and if you had let the data/ rational thought determine your investing towards China in 2008 rather than fear/ panic from the folks who base investing on erroneous data, you would be rich now.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Mark: appreciate the kind comments about my piece. If you get a chance to read my book "End of Cheap China" hope you enjoy it. exactly, there is massive pent up demand for real estate here.

    The govt has and is continuing to force a softening of prices to prick a potential bubble. To prove the govt is not overly worried about the economy is that they rightfully are not easing regulations in autos and real estate.

    Have a nice day.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    I remain very optimistic on China, however, if the eurozone collapses that potentially could cause a chain reaction of fear that stop both FDI into China and exports... it could also cause hedge funds etc. to short and bet against key areas like they did in 2008. That could severely impact the global economy. The odds of this happening I put at 10% so net-net I remain optimistic on China.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Thank you so much for following me all these years. You are 100% correct that I have been one of the great China bulls since the mid 1990s when everyone thought China was going to implode/ never get started.

    I hope that you had followed my investing advice of the years. You would have made millions, if not more. Somehow I don't think followed my advice.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Indeed, there are imbalances that need to be corrected. I 100% agree with you on that. However, too many analysts exaggerate the depths of the issues. If they were allowed to continue, we could run into issues but most of the problems are being addressed (perhaps too slowly) but are being addressed.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    One must look at whether the so-called empty cities are backed by real money... and in most cases they are. Most of the apts bought have been acquired with little leverage/ debt... thus even if prices drop they won't cause a systemic threat.

    The empty cities might mean a misallocation of resources but is not the threat as many analysts seem to think because it is held by end retail consumers, rather than leveraged real estate developers or investors.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Where do you actually disagree with what I have written? Let's redirect your criticism towards something more useful. Do you actually think China's economy is about to implode? Give us data points as to why/ how you draw that conclusion. Or do you think electricity is a good proxy?
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Actually, most of the titles of my articles are written by my editors. Probably only 20% of the titles are actually written by me. The content of my pieces, however, are all mine, as was the title of my book that was recently released.

    On the BBC site, they changed the title several times and posted it under different titles at the same time on different parts to, indeed, market.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Indeed, there is far too much misinformation on China being bandied about by analysts who miss key facts on what is happening in China. I actually like that -- I bet against them.
    Jul 17, 2012. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Ah, another troll who attacks people while hiding behind anonymity. Why don't you become more constructive in your criticisms and actually add to the debate? Be critical if you want, but be professional.

    I thought Seeking Alpha was going to clamp down on useless posters. They should.
    Jul 16, 2012. 11:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Myths About Chinese Consumers [View article]
    When going for ultra-networth, dozens interviewed from different regions are useful and indeed better than my friend says. Of course, one could interview more, but the results of that research will go for my paying luxury clients...
    Jul 16, 2012. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Myths About Chinese Consumers [View article]
    Exactly. Avg migrant worker salaries went up 14.9% this year... far more than inflation. Consumption will continue and knowing what patterns will change are useful for investors.
    Jul 16, 2012. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Myths About Chinese Consumers [View article]
    There are not that many people with more than $10 million in investable assets in China. 3 dozen is actually fairly representative of wealthy consumer habits from a qualitative standpoint.

    This is the problem with many anonymous commenters - they don't how research works and margin of error.
    Jul 16, 2012. 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Myths About Chinese Consumers [View article]
    Mercedes has been discounting 20-30%, Jaguar same. BMW about 5%. Point being is that not all luxury brands are getting hit, consumers are changing behaviors. Investors that know which brands will do well (BMW) and which ones won't (Mercedes) can make better investment decisions because luxury auto is not collapsing across the board.
    Jul 16, 2012. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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165 Comments
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