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Shaun Rein

 
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  • Is China's Economy Heading For A Crash? [View article]
    Indeed, there is far too much misinformation on China being bandied about by analysts who miss key facts on what is happening in China. I actually like that -- I bet against them.
    Jul 17 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Myths About Chinese Consumers [View article]
    When going for ultra-networth, dozens interviewed from different regions are useful and indeed better than my friend says. Of course, one could interview more, but the results of that research will go for my paying luxury clients...
    Jul 16 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Myths About Chinese Consumers [View article]
    Mercedes has been discounting 20-30%, Jaguar same. BMW about 5%. Point being is that not all luxury brands are getting hit, consumers are changing behaviors. Investors that know which brands will do well (BMW) and which ones won't (Mercedes) can make better investment decisions because luxury auto is not collapsing across the board.
    Jul 16 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For U.S. Brands, There's No Middle In China's Middle Class [View article]
    Sam: thanks for the kind comments and excellent question... my thesis in grad school covered in large part the underground economy in China and is one reason why I believe income (and consumption) is rising much faster than most economists believe.
    Jun 24 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From China's Growth With Sector And Macro Bets - An Interview With China Expert Shaun Rein, Part II [View article]
    Yes, here is a link to Bolton's fund.
    http://bit.ly/IFxADP
    Apr 27 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For U.S. Brands, There's No Middle In China's Middle Class [View article]
    Thanks ekon for sharing your thoughts and personal experiences at GAP and AE. Indeed, whenever my team and I visit AE, we never see anyone. I doubt they will be able to bounce back here.

    I do think GAP can come back... they have a better crowd. They will have to make major tweaks but can do ok.

    One key point that I really like how you highlighted -- teens/ young adults rarely have that kind of money. That is a huge point that so many people neglect to understand in how trends for middle class shoppers are started. They just cannot afford AE and the such here. Cache Cache, Vancl is more the price point for those folks but those 2 brands have their own sets up cost structure issues.

    Really good points so that for sharing.
    Apr 26 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    Thank you for sharing your thoughts and the experiences of your friend. They align exactly with the interviews we have been having and which I include in the book -- moving to Vietnam is not always feasible as productivity is lacking. Yet finding workers in China is tough... the net result is squeezed margins or transferring higher costs to consumers if companies cannot make a more meaningful adjustment, like automating factory lines or reducing costs in some other way.
    Apr 25 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    Thank you so much Blott for ordering my book. I really hope you enjoy the read and look forward to your feedback.
    Apr 25 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    Thanks Ron. Hope you enjoy my book when you pick it up -- appreciate that.

    For many industries, it is doubtful that production ecosystems can move to India or Vietnam -- labor productivity remains too low, logistics infrastructure weak, and moving related companies all at once is tough. It is happening in some sectors in light industry, like shoes, but will be tough to do in the next 3-5 years in any meaningful way to stop longer-term secular pick-up in Chinese labor. It is not a quick, easy process to move.
    Apr 23 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    This will be the end of investing in China for many companies for sure... brands like Nike are now sourcing more in Vietnam than China now. However, many companies in China will invest more, and many more will come in to sell into the country. I am not concerned about China losing investment, it just will be a different, more sustainable type of investment.
    Apr 5 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    Leohk: thank you so much for picking up a copy of my book and for your kind comments on it. The reviews from readers are just started to come in, so your kind remarks really made my weekend. Thank you. I appreciate it.

    Unfortunately, you and I are in agreement. I am very concerned about more US-China tensions, which does not help anyone, and that consumers around the world will suffer with higher costs. I hope that the US starts to focus on reforming its on system, rather than looking for scapegoats as you say. There is no way most jobs will return to the US, and I am not sure they are jobs America even wants.

    Again, thank you for getting a copy of my book and for the kind comments on it.
    Mar 30 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    You are welcome davel. Have a nice day.
    Mar 30 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    Not at all. It means that companies (and nations) will have to evolve and adjust in order to take advantage of China's changes. If they don't they might go extinct. Some companies will have to adjust production lines (location, automation, type of product). Still others will have to try to sell into china but need to understand how Chinese consumers think.

    My book covers much more about the subject in-depth. If you get the chance to read the book, I hope you enjoy and I look forward to your feedback if you do read it.
    Mar 30 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'The End Of Cheap China' Means For Investors [View article]
    Thanks Blott for the comments -- we are in agreement. China has been a deflationary force in the world economy for the last 3 decades (to the benefit of American consumers) but is becoming an inflationary force. The problem for the global economy, as I briefly outline here and have far more in my book, is that I don't see other nations being able to emerge anytime soon to replace China in manufacturing.

    China has consolidated so much market share and has scales of economy. Inflation is already hitting the US from China, 3.6% in 2011 for imports, highest on record.
    Mar 28 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Hit $1,000 A Share? China Holds The Key [View article]
    Good points, Dogworth. Thanks. Never a bad thing to take profits and not be greedy. 20K in 2 years is darn good.
    Mar 3 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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