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Shelley Lin, CFA

 
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  • This Stable Insurer Is Traded At Below Book Value And Has Significant Upside Potential [View article]
    You are right milessoldier I did miss this. Thank you for pointing this out. HIG did increase its 2013-14 capital management plan by $750 million, thus bringing the total to $1.25 billion. It appears that the stock reacted by going from $29 to $31. This reinforces the point that as management becomes more optimistic about its outlook for capital margins, there is further upside potential.
    Sep 27 07:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Trends Point to Higher Crude Prices: Statoil to Benefit [View article]
    STO is due to report earnings tomorrow. I am forecasting an adjusted EPS of $0.59 vs. Yahoo Finance average estimate of $0.62.
    Oct 25 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Trends Point to Higher Crude Prices: Statoil to Benefit [View article]
    STO reported 4Q2011 adjusted earnings after tax of $0.79 per share, which beats the street estimate of $0.72, and my estimate (see above) of $0.71. However, the beat was mostly attributed to a much lower tax rate of 68% vs. 73% a year ago and much better performance from non-core businesses. Management reiterated its long term goal of growing production at a CAGR of 3%. STO's 2011 production was down 2% from 2010 due to temporary operational issues. It remains to be seen if it can execute in 2012 on management's guidance of growing production by 3% from the 2010 level.
    Feb 9 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Trends Point to Higher Crude Prices: Statoil to Benefit [View article]
    My EPS estimate for 4Q11 of $0.71 is slightly below the street average (based on Yahoo! Finance), but my EPS estimate for FY 2012 of $3.08 is above the street expectation of $2.79. My price target for the stock is $30. STO will report earnings next week on February 8th.
    Jan 31 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    IEA sees weaker oil demand GROWTH, and cuts its forecast for this year's demand growth to 1M barrels per day. The delta, not the absolute numbers, is being referred to. The world is now consuming about 90M barrels of oil per day.
    Sep 13 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Rating On Statoil In Light Of Recent Clouds Over Stock [View article]
    STO 2Q13 earnings call guided 2013 production volume lower. I am lowering 2013 EPS forecast to $2.57 based on lower production and my outlook for flat to lower oil prices. STO made significant progress on boosting international production in 2Q, but expense levels are broadly higher, pinching profitability. Remain Neutral on stock.
    Aug 7 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache: Undervalued Gem Or Hopeless Investment? [View article]
    2Q2013 domestic production was on track, but Egypt and North Sea production was disappointing due to temporary maintenance issues. More importantly, the political situation in Egypt does not seem be impacting APA's operations.

    With the sale of 50% interest in Gulf of Mexico shelf, disappointing guidance on international production, and outlook for lower oil prices, I am lowering the 2013 production and price forecast which lead to a lower EPS of $7.67. My target price for the stock is $100 (13x 2013 EPS).
    Aug 6 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Third Bank - A Real Gem Among The Financials Rubbles [View article]
    FITB has reached my target price of $19. The recent earnings and management outlook are disappointing. Mortgage banking has slowed more than previously anticipated, and management's outlook for 3Q efficiency ratio is higher than desired. I am cutting my full-year ESP estimate to $1.83. At $19 this translates into a multiple of 10. Should sell the stock now.
    Jul 25 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Aflac's Undervaluation Relative To Its Peers Fairly Deserved? [View article]
    I think that you have to look at the time frame in which the beta is derived. Right now Yahoo! Finance shows a beta of 1.72. I am guessing it is probably derived based on one year's observations if you look at this chart of AFL against S&P 500:
    http://bit.ly/1a1YBjR
    In my article I was referring to AFL's YTD under-performance relative to the index (see chart below):
    http://bit.ly/1a1Yyod
    From this chart AFL's beta doesn't look anything close to 1.72, so I think that its beta depends on the time frame you pick.
    Jul 4 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short-Term Bearish On Brent Prices, Exciting Long-Term Energy Outlook [View article]
    Dear Veritas1010,

    Thank you for your detailed feedback. My next article will be an update on STO, and would hopefully address some of the questions which your raised.
    May 25 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache: Undervalued Gem Or Hopeless Investment? [View article]
    1Q2013 earnings and production volumes are broadly positive. The production mix is slightly more towards NGL and less towards oil compared to my forecast. The proposed share buyback would be a significant driver for increasing EPS. Overall, I am lowering my EPS estimate slightly to $9.33.
    May 9 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Trends Point to Higher Crude Prices: Statoil to Benefit [View article]
    Eni (E), a competitor of Statoil, is due to report 1Q2012 earnings tomorrow afternoon. I am forecasting an EPS of 0.47 euro per share. will soon publish an article on this investment idea.
    Apr 26 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Apache To Benefit From Rising Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    APA just reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.94 vs. my estimate of $3.05. It beats the street consensus of $2.87 by 8 cents. Revenue and production are in line with my estimate, but expenses and income tax are a little higher than my expectations, and this result in the 5.7% miss from my estimate in the bottom line. We will await the company's earnings call this afternoon to adjust our expectations for 2012.
    Feb 16 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Apache To Benefit From Rising Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    Last night APC reported the 4Q2011 adjusted EPS of $0.85 which beats the street estimate of $0.62 by $0.23, and my estimate of $0.64 by $0.21. The beat was mainly attributed to higher than expected revenues (higher than expected realized prices and slightly better than expected production) and lower than expected expenses. APC is up today more than the major market indexes.
    Feb 7 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Apache To Benefit From Rising Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    As a peer of APA APC is due to report earnings next week on February 7. I am forecasting its 4Q11 EPS of $0.64 vs. the street consensus EPS of $0.62. My forecast of its EPS for the fiscal year 2012 is $3.55 vs. the street expectation of $3.33. At $81 APC is trading at an earning multiple of 24 vs. the earning multiple of 8 for APA even though both companies have similar business operations.
    Feb 2 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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16 Comments
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