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Shelley Lin, CFA

 
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  • Apache: Undervalued Gem Or Hopeless Investment? [View article]
    2Q2013 domestic production was on track, but Egypt and North Sea production was disappointing due to temporary maintenance issues. More importantly, the political situation in Egypt does not seem be impacting APA's operations.

    With the sale of 50% interest in Gulf of Mexico shelf, disappointing guidance on international production, and outlook for lower oil prices, I am lowering the 2013 production and price forecast which lead to a lower EPS of $7.67. My target price for the stock is $100 (13x 2013 EPS).
    Aug 6 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apache: Undervalued Gem Or Hopeless Investment? [View article]
    1Q2013 earnings and production volumes are broadly positive. The production mix is slightly more towards NGL and less towards oil compared to my forecast. The proposed share buyback would be a significant driver for increasing EPS. Overall, I am lowering my EPS estimate slightly to $9.33.
    May 9 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Apache To Benefit From Rising Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    APA just reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.94 vs. my estimate of $3.05. It beats the street consensus of $2.87 by 8 cents. Revenue and production are in line with my estimate, but expenses and income tax are a little higher than my expectations, and this result in the 5.7% miss from my estimate in the bottom line. We will await the company's earnings call this afternoon to adjust our expectations for 2012.
    Feb 16 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Apache To Benefit From Rising Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    Last night APC reported the 4Q2011 adjusted EPS of $0.85 which beats the street estimate of $0.62 by $0.23, and my estimate of $0.64 by $0.21. The beat was mainly attributed to higher than expected revenues (higher than expected realized prices and slightly better than expected production) and lower than expected expenses. APC is up today more than the major market indexes.
    Feb 7 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Apache To Benefit From Rising Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    As a peer of APA APC is due to report earnings next week on February 7. I am forecasting its 4Q11 EPS of $0.64 vs. the street consensus EPS of $0.62. My forecast of its EPS for the fiscal year 2012 is $3.55 vs. the street expectation of $3.33. At $81 APC is trading at an earning multiple of 24 vs. the earning multiple of 8 for APA even though both companies have similar business operations.
    Feb 2 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Apache To Benefit From Rising Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    APA reported 3Q EPS of $2.95 vs. my prediction of $3.00 as opposed to the consensus prediction of $2.78 (Yahoo Finance). I am forecasting 4Q EPS of $3.05 and 2012 EPS of $13.42 vs. the consensus forecast of $2.74 and $12.26. Even applying a below-peer multiple of 9 to the EPS would value the stock at $121. Given the current market turmoil from the European sovereign debt crisis, the investor should seek entry point at below $90.
    Dec 9 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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