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Shishir Nigam

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  • When Correlations Collide [View article]
    The returns are in local currencies.
    Mar 8 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. an Emerging Market? [View article]
    My source is the actual budget of the US government. On this site, you can find links to many important figures: www.gpoaccess.gov/usbu...

    If you open Table 7.1, on Federal Debt, you'll find the debt held by the public as a % of GDP estimated for 2010 in cell I76.
    Mar 1 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It’s Time to Accept Parity Between Canadian and U.S. Dollars [View article]
    Yes, the higher C$ will push Canadian companies but that will result in more competitive companies once you look beyond the short-run.

    Even the Canadian central bank knows that it cannot stop the rise of the Canadian dollar, what they are looking to prevent is a sudden surge in the C$ like that in 2007 but they are comfortable with steady, slow rise which will allow some time for companies in Canada to adjust. In the long run, the pressure due to a stronger C$ can only make Canadian companies stronger.
    Feb 22 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next for Skype? [View article]
    Here is the link to the post announcing the collaboration between Skype and Panasonic, LG: news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2...

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
    Jan 12 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets' New Mantras for 2010 [View article]
    Another interesting thought I had related to this topic.

    What’s interesting is that this year might have been one of the few situations where every person on the street called themselves a “contrarian”. Nearly everyone doubted the solidity of the equity rally because of the disconnect with fundamentals…and so just because they opposed the direction of the market, they were “contrarian”. In fact, the REAL contrarian would be going against the consensus amongst investors…which was that the rally had no legs, when it actually did. Do you think the same applies to predictions about 2010?

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youndandinvested.com
    Jan 7 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets' New Mantras for 2010 [View article]
    Thank you for your comments!
    Jan 7 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets' New Mantras for 2010 [View article]
    Interesting comment Northern Dancer. I agree with your point about the money not having flowed into the economy and hence not being multiplied. It's a point that's frequently overlooked. But I also think there's a lot more other factors that'll go into setting the inflation vs deflation balance beam - such as, actual economic performance, how soon the Fed pulls out liquidity, how long the equities rally persists etc.

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
    Jan 6 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CDS Spreads: How to Profit from the Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
    arkafon,

    Thanks for your comment. To your first point, I have to say I do believe in mean reversion even in macro situations. There is no economy that remains completely dominant forever, and neither is there an economy that remains in the dumps forever. Though what differentiates the 2 extremes, is that you can probably bet on those economies performing really badly to improve MORE QUICKLY than the timeframe in which really good economies start to decline. I think that has something to do with the resilience of people in general, who are suffering in poor/unhealthy economies.

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
    Jan 6 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • False Mantras of 2009 [View article]

    Do check up on the next article coming up soon on the New Mantras of 2010!

    For more analysis, visit my blog: youngandinvested.com
    Jan 4 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CDS Spreads: How to Profit from the Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
    Alan Young and Maverick,

    Thanks for your comments. You make a valid point. Investing in CDS is still very much restricted to institutional investors who have the capital and knowledge to trade in the OTC CDS market. The point of the article though was really to identify trends in the market place and possible mis-pricing of financial instruments.

    To your point though, there are currently indices out there which track credit default swaps from different regions, provided by institutions such as iTraxx (Markit iTraxx CDS Indices) and S&P (S&P Credit Default Swap CDS US Indices). It might be a matter of time before someone comes up with a viable investment option to trade these indices on the market. Also, I've come across proposals to initiate the trading of index options on CDS on the CBOE..so that's another possibility.

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
    Dec 28 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CDS Spreads: How to Profit from the Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
    Djvu,

    Thanks for your comment. Plotting against the debt maturity schedule is actually a very good idea! Though I think it might be harder to find information that detailed on sovereign debt, unlike corporate debt. I'll try looking around..

    As for the US, because the data I used was slightly stale, the charts represented the US using 2008 data which is now quite useless given how much the debt situation has changed since. Going forward though, I feel the US situation is going to depend more on the domestic economy than on the global demand for its debt, as is commonly believed. Yes, many countries are shirking away from purchases of US debt etc, but the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries, China, holds only 6% of total US debt outstanding. The effect that foreign demand has is much smaller than perceived. The AAA rating will depend very much on whether the US economy has a double dip, or if it's currently strong enough to withstand the eventual pullback in liquidity that'll come from the Fed. If there is double dip, the government might very well have to continue to bankroll the economy with new debt, which can't be good for the long run.

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com


    On Dec 28 09:38 AM Djvu wrote:

    > good post !!
    > try to see the maturity profile of the debt. that would be a good
    > chart. For eg for US it has $2.5 trillion maturing in 2010 ( 35%
    > of total).
    > I am surprised how you didnt mention anything regarding if US deserves
    > its AAA rating.
    Dec 28 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CDS Spreads: How to Profit from the Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]

    As a follow up, here's a good read on how the problem of sovereign defaults may actually be increasing and not fading away: www.economist.com/opin...
    Dec 28 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Opportunity in Sovereign CDS Spreads? [View article]
    As a follow up, here's a good read on how the problem of sovereign defaults may actually be increasing and not fading away: www.economist.com/opin...

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
    Dec 28 05:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Stocks Increasing Dividends, Long-Term Return [View article]
    Agree with you completely Joseph.

    D4L, all the companies that you mention might well be strong and solid companies. But I wouldn't be happy with a yield of 0.68% (taking the extreme example) for Royal Gold even if they increase their payout by 20% each year. In that hypothetical scenario, it would take 11 years just to get up to a yield of 5% (not considering any price appreciation), which is what I'd consider a good yield.

    So from a purely dividend perspective, I wouldn't be keen on looking at anything with a sub-4% yield, unless there are some strong capital appreciation prospects that can make up for a low payout.

    For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
    Nov 20 11:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Ralph Lauren Can Make You Money [View article]
    It's impressive that they have been able to keep up their strong profits despite weak consumer demand/sentiment around the globe. Definitely one of the stronger retailers to look at.

    Though I'd wait till I see some solid sales growth, instead of a decline before ploughing into RL. Their impressive profits would mean a lot more if they were the result of top-line growth, instead of cost-cutting.
    Nov 17 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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