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Shishir Nigam

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  • SEC Ignored Warnings of Ratings Fraud [View article]
    Jeff, I think all of us are asking the same question. Already much of the momentum to push for change that was built up after the market crash has been lost in the noise of pay regulations, auto industry bailouts, health debates and the like. Those are still important issues but as a result of the attention diversion, the public "anger" has passed.

    However, there are still some people out there who are taking these organizations to task. For example, Rep. Alan Grayson is one who I've observed is not letting up on these issues and asks some very critical questions of the regulators. There are several other politicians that are pushing ahead with recommendations. And then there is the entire blogo-sphere, people like Tyler Durden who present facts w/o bias which the relevant parties hopefully pick up on.

    The biggest problem is that what people perceive as being an "important issue" is directly related to what the mass media is covering at any point in time. Unfortunately, the media is not responsible enough to deal with the burden of setting public perception in the objective way that it should.

    On Oct 01 04:57 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:

    > Shishir, the question I keep asking is WHO is going to push for needed
    > for changes?
    > It should be the (so-called) regulators, but they are either totally
    > corrupt, totally incompetent, or "all of the above". If the regulators
    > are "broken" then only government can fix them. However, with government
    > equally corrupt it's hard to see ANY meaningful reform emerging.
    Oct 1 09:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Reasons to Be Bullish [View article]
    Appreciate your detailed response JeffDB! You covered nearly all the markets there are to talk about! And you're right about Mr. Market coming out of Intelligent Investor as well.

    I agree with your points. Again, the point of this article was to consolidate the arguments that are made by the bulls to justify the rally. I will be presenting very soon another article that provides the justifications that the bears have been providing for their views. So do look out for that and I'd definitely want to hear your thoughts on that as well.
    Oct 1 08:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fourth Worst Start to October Ever [View article]
    It'll only mean something if the drop can be confirmed tomorrow. There are enough catalysts for that to happen - the unemployment numbers and the factory orders come out tomorrow. A disappointment in any of those could prove to be the trigger.

    Have seen too many drops over the past 6 months which have been bought back completely the next day.

    For more analysis, check out my blog:
    Oct 1 04:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimated S&P 500 Earnings Growth [View article]
    If revenue stabilization or growth is not visible in the top-lines of the companies releasing their Q3 results, then we might be in for a serious correction. Unless of course, the government once again comes in with a subsidy program for some other new industry that requires "pulling up" and the computers that currently gun the market up have enough firepower to go against the rising tide of bears.

    For more analysis, check out my blog:
    Oct 1 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Closing Update for Thursday, Oct. 1: Dow's Big Plunge [View article]
    Consumer spending is rising. At the same time, the savings rate is also rising, bank lending continues to decrease, and credit card defaults rise. So where exactly is the increase in spending coming from?

    Beats me! Another instance of circular reasoning?

    For more analysis, check out my blog:
    Oct 1 04:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Clunkers' Spending Siphons Savings [View article]
    A higher savings rate in the coming months and more retrenched consumer spending would show that the cash for clunkers really brought forward future spending much more than initiating new spending that otherwise wouldn't have occured.

    The cash-for-clunkers program was ultimately a massive subsidy to the american auto market which will find it hard to survive in the future anyway. More good money going after bad investments. The manufacturing indices have already come in below expectations today, lower than normal auto purchases in the future is not going to help that at all.

    Wasn't there a time when the US used to be the free-market activist of the world? It seems a very long time ago.

    For more analysis, check out my blog:
    Oct 1 04:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Reasons to Be Bullish [View article]
    In fact I have seen that article written by Tyler, it was a very interesting take on the general trade debate. However, the point I make in the article is that trade volumes have definitely come off relative to the lows that were reached back in January. Recent IMF releases have shown that global trade has been on the rise in the last few months

    But of course in absolute terms, trade volumes are still way below where they used to be, hence all the ships parked off the coast of Singapore, Gibraltar and the like.

    For more analysis, check out my blog:

    On Oct 01 03:19 PM JeffDB wrote:

    > "Global trade is seen as the life blood of the modern global economy
    > and that life blood was drained in the last months of 2008 as the
    > financial world came crashing down. ... However, those numbers are
    > now looking up. ... Another major indicator of health of global trade
    > is the Baltic Dry Index ( which
    > tracks international shipping prices for dry bulk cargoes, such as
    > raw materials. The BDI is one of the purest leading economic indicators
    > because it provides indications of the demand to move materials of
    > production and also because the BDI does involve any speculative
    > players. ..."
    > Check out Tyler Durden's look at international shipping over on Zero
    > Hedge:
    > Thousands Of Rusting Ship Hulls Are A Fitting Tribute To The Speculative
    > Market Bubble
    Oct 1 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If the FDIC Is Broke, Why Are They Still Issuing Guarantees? [View article]
    It looks ridiculous in the short-term for sure, but eventually (I hope) these things will come around to haunt these government entities. Investors might be occasionally ignorant, but usually they're not stupid.

    For more analysis, check out my blog:
    Oct 1 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dividend Stocks Are Relatively Safe? [View article]
    Sysco is a great company to consider as a long-term purchase, it has a strong balance sheet and operates in a conservative sector. It provides a relatively healthy dividend yield and dividends that the company has been raising for a many years now.

    Another good dividend stock to look at is Caterpillar (CAT). It's one of the largest manufacturers of construction equipment and is benefiting from the increase in government expenditures around the world, a lot of which are being directed towards infrastructure development! It also sports a very good dividend yield right now, will get even better if purchased at a slight dip that should be coming up.

    For more analysis, check out my blog:
    Oct 1 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Major Crisis Brewing [View article]
    The same fact that such a huge prorportion of Treasury issuances are purchased by the Fed ensures that if any of the other major buyers start pulling out of future auctions, the Fed could very easily step in to fill their places.

    Granted that this cannot go on forever, the Fed would still be able to delay any big "day of reckoning" for Treasuries by forming the support under the treasury market. Till when they can keep doing that is anyone's guess.

    For more analysis, check out my blog:
    Oct 1 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC Ignored Warnings of Ratings Fraud [View article]
    Hopefully the new facts that are being brought to light are actually enough to push for a change in the ineffective regulatory bodies. When organizations are upholding so many vested interests, with the SEC getting cosy with Wall Street, then it becomes that much harder for REAL change to happen.

    If no one in the political arena has the persistence to bring about that change, then everyone might be left to the mercy of wall street.

    Do check out my blog for more analysis:
    Oct 1 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One of the Last Bears Standing [View article]
    There's definitely lots of bears out there right now so I find it hard to agree. I'd even be tempted to say that there's more bears now than bulls, at least amongst the informed investors.

    It might be the case that there's a lot new un-informed investors that are being pulled into this rally just because are seeing higher prices but in the informed community, I continue to see many bearish opinions.
    Oct 1 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Reasons to Be Bullish [View article]
    I agree, I've seen a good range of articles supporting both sides on the story on SA. Though very interesting that you point out the overall tone could be an indication to a contrarian.

    I wonder if SA contributors could be categorized on their profiles as bullish or bearish, on the option of the contributor of course. The total numbers in each camp resulting from that could provide for interesting reading and analysis!

    On Sep 30 09:53 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

    > Yes, SA permits bullish articles and upbeat comments. I've had several
    > published, including four articles about the 6-month rally (while
    > it was happening, not in retrospect). If you (correctly) think that
    > the overall tone of SA is negative and bearish, that is just a reflection
    > of its contributors, including the many commenters who do not write
    > articles. PS: That overall tone may be a contra-indicator.
    Sep 30 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Recognize Reality? [View article]
    Great article Karl, I agree with most of your points...a lot of what has happened in the past year can be attributed to a lack of EFFECTIVE regulatory oversight by the SEC.

    And now, another government agency, the FDIC is going to the same banks for a bailout (contribution prepayments) whose deposits it's supposed to insure! Talk about irony. With FDIC releases stating that its fund will be negative by the end of the month, an insolvent entity is backstopping the deposits of all US banks.
    Sep 29 11:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Reasons to Be Bullish [View article]
    Hi everyone...thanks for the comments. To clarify, I wrote this article to provide a synthesis of the bullish arguments out there, without agreeing/dis-agreeing with them. There'll be a "Top 5 bearish" article coming up consolidating arguments for the flip side. Would love to hear your take on that as well!

    Appreciate your feedback, visit my blog for more analysis!:
    Sep 29 11:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment