Shiv Kapoor

Transocean Earnings Analysis: A Buy at Current Levels

RIG has Trident 9 idle/warm stacked; which might go stacked; my view is that it will not - it will probably get work at lower day rates. Trident 6 is stacked - probably likely to stay that way as the jack up market is looking weak. These are jack ups which are unlikely to have a significant impact on results.

Sedco 709 is coming of contract in Nov 09; its running at $205k/day; the client has fixed options. This is a dynamically positioned midwater vessel; I do not believe it will be stacked, though it might be idle/warm stacked for a short while.

Actinia and GSF 135 are good through Apr/May 2010.

Overall, I do not see stack risk for 2010 as significant.

In fact a little bit of stacking in mid water will be good for day rates (utilization is calculated excluding cold stacked rigs) and as utilization rises, so do day rates.

On Nov 05 08:15 AM Wallach wrote:

> As far as I understand, the dayrates and out-of-service time reflects
> only operating rigs. If one was to average in the stacked rigs, the
> numbers would not look as good.