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Shiv Kapoor

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  • JPMorgan: Nibble The Dip? [View article]
    EnAmi - the 2.4% is an estimate: $5 billion divided by market cap. I don't believe there is a webpage where you can actually get buyback plus dividend yield data.
    Apr 17 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: An Opportunity To Capture Growth Alpha [View article]
    To be sure I agree with you & the first person to comment. I have no doubt that price will shoot over value when risk is embraced by market participants. My point is that if a person buys for the long term at a price at or below $222, he, or she, shall most likely be very pleased with the investments performance over the long-term.

    While the price might fall below the value in the short-term, over the long-term it will rise to and over value.
    Apr 17 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: P-RAGE Ratio Looking Good [View article]
    Yes, but it is a measure of the stocks volatility in relation to the markets volatility. And it can be of limited use when the coefficient of determination of the stock is very low, because that implies that the price movement for the stock is less dependent on market moves, and more dependent on company specific factors. Because of the weakness of beta as a risk measure Fama French came up with the three factor model - its a very interesting model worth having a look at - http://bit.ly/1hXFLrO . More recently people who are long-term buy and hold style investors have been saying that volatility and beta are not a measure of risk at all - because volatility and beta do not consistently estimate the risk of a permanent impairment in value of an investment. For them short-term price movements do not matter, only value movement does. All said and done regardless of whether beta is or is not a good measure of risk, it is what most investors use to form a view on the return expectations they should set - and so beta matters - a lot.
    Apr 17 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: A Buy Despite Growth And Equity Compensation Plan Concerns [View article]
    It is cheaper than the market based on investor perception of risk, which is what I seek to measure. Because investors demand lower return expectations from low beta stocks, Coke is cheap relative to the market, despite having a higher Fwd PE.
    Apr 17 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: P-RAGE Ratio Looking Good [View article]
    I agree with you in saying that beta is very different from risk. However, beta does measure investor perception of risk. And that is what I am interested in measuring.
    Apr 16 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coca-Cola Company EPS in-line, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Think $KO will turn around and be strong on EM as that growth cycle kicks in: one day. See http://seekingalpha.co... for more.
    Apr 15 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illuminating Canon's Role In 3D Systems [View article]
    If you look at the AOM Model Recommendation for growth investors allocating capital to the industry level, there is a buy rating. DDD is a growth stock. Of that there is no doubt. The reason why it is not rated a buy for investors allocating capital to a sector, or allocating capital free of any bias to the market are (1) there may be better growth opportunities at the sector or whole market level than at the industry level. (2) A person who has a stock selection style with a bias to growth, will focus primarily on growth. However, some weightage will always be given to the value, quality, and momentum indicators. For example, the fear of catching a falling knife will be there in the heart of a growth investor, though perhaps later than it would arise in the heart of a momentum stock selector. So will a fear on valuation arise, a growth investor might worry about the price to sales ratio being at a high level later than would a value investor, but that fear will be there in his/her heart too.
    Apr 14 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan: Nibble The Dip? [View article]
    This is how AOM Ranks them and that is probably not an unreasonable near term view:

    TD http://bit.ly/1lWDP8m
    SAN http://bit.ly/1lWDPoA
    BNS http://bit.ly/1lWDPoC
    JPM TD http://bit.ly/1lWDNgs

    Mind you these rankings don't look at the price/risk equation which is essential for the long-term view.

    We are building a tool which will allow a side by side comparison of the 38 key indicators for the stocks, but are not there yet!
    Apr 13 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Nokia Breach $8.50 Now That China Approved The D&S Sale To Microsoft? [View article]
    The math is me not AOM. I use AOM to find possible opportunity and explore my investing bias. I then test it using math and normal due diligence before making a buy of sell decision.
    Apr 11 03:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Nokia Breach $8.50 Now That China Approved The D&S Sale To Microsoft? [View article]
    Alcaraz Research _ I enjoyed watching your usage of the AOM system to explore your momentum bias!
    Apr 10 08:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straight Talk On Gold - You May Not Want To Hear It [View article]
    I'm not a gold bull or buyer myself. But I think for gold, there is demand for its perceived safe haven status. And there is a certain level of discretionary demand from consumers which is growing with income levels in Asia. Finally, Gold, like Diamonds, most certainly has an element of Giffins Paradox influencing the shape of its demand curve. It would not be surprising to see quantity demanded rising with price. So the curve is not quite the normal demand curve shape.
    Mar 25 05:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is India A Bright Spot For Emerging Markets In 2014? [View article]
    Interesting, but think about this 1996 was a general election year: a hung Parliament caused fear and underperformance.

    2005 was an odd year. The 2004 election saw the incumbents out. Uncertainity gave us a poor year, followed by a strong 2005, when it was clear that the new leaders might not be as bad as was expected.

    In 2009, we also had a general election. And continuity and a mandate to a relatively strong coalition government gave markets the confidence to outperform post financial crisis.

    In 2014 we have elections again. A vote against the incumbents is likely. A firm mandate to the new leaders would be a positive. But expectations of what the leaders must deliver are very high. Yet, I feel that the economic cycle is more powerful than the leadership cycle. So long as there is a clear mandate to rule, the economic cycle is poised to turn - http://bit.ly/1hUO7lZ. And so far the political risk is low - http://bit.ly/1hUO6P0, but rising somewhat since the principal opposition seems hell bent on hurting itself in an internal power struggle, fought in the public domain.
    Besides that, India large caps tend to move on foreign flows more than domestic sentiment, which is better reflected in the mid cap space.
    Mar 24 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Semi-Conductor Space - Part 2: Focus Intel [View article]
    You can download it here. http://bit.ly/1jqH2e6
    Mar 23 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Stores In India: What Investors Should Know [View article]
    Nice article. I suppose for an attorney structuring a deal, ensuring the continuance of operational flexibility to address State Vs Union regulation conflict, particularly on a change in State Governments, would be very, very interesting!

    Though it is odd that you mention that Walmart is the only major engaged in discussion for multi brand retail in India. I believe Tesco, following FIPB approval, closed a deal with Trent for India multi-brand retail very recently. See http://bit.ly/1geSkn0

    I think Walmart should proceed with India. And maybe look at partnering with an existing brand - I think Spencer would be an interesting option.
    Mar 23 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Drillers Take It All - Part 2: Focus Seadrill [View article]
    Nice work by Clarksons in identifying where the rigs are at work on the Floating into Ultra-Deepwater.
    Mar 21 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
278 Comments
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