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Shiv Kapoor  

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  • BP: The Stock Market Is Not A One-Way Street [View article]
    I think the biggest risk for BP is ownership of near 20% in Rosneft. Rosneft is a great asset, but one denied the opportunity to realize its potential for now (and perhaps for a long time).
    Feb 4, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The India Story Is Finally Taking Off [View article]
    Some frontline stocks cheaper to expensive by Forward year PE.
    Company Fwd PE
    Tata Motors Ltd 8.47
    Reliance Industries Ltd 10.89
    Grasim Industries Ltd 12.40
    HCL Technologies Ltd 14.29
    Axis Bank Ltd 15.26
    Tata Power Company Ltd 15.29
    Wipro Ltd 15.37
    ICICI Bank Ltd 16.01
    Hero MotoCorp Ltd 16.29
    Tech Mahindra Ltd 16.89
    Bajaj Auto Ltd 17.56
    Infosys Ltd 18.23
    Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd 19.28
    Tata Consultancy Services Ltd 19.80
    HDFC Bank Ltd 19.80
    Indusind Bank Ltd 20.05
    Dr.Reddy's Laboratories Ltd 21.39
    Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 21.65
    ACC Ltd 21.77
    Bharti Airtel Ltd 22.04
    Ambuja Cements Ltd 23.27
    Lupin Ltd 23.92
    ITC Ltd 24.54
    Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd 25.82
    UltraTech Cement Ltd 26.34
    Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd 28.00
    Cipla Ltd 28.68
    Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 29.15
    Asian Paints Ltd 41.63
    Hindustan Unilever Ltd 43.11

    And some smaller co's, again cheap ... expensive on fwd PE
    Company Fwd PE
    Reliance Infrastructure Ltd 6.51
    Welspun Corp Ltd 6.90
    UPL Ltd 10.93
    Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd 11.68
    Tata Chemicals Ltd 11.93
    CESC Ltd 12.38
    Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd 13.27
    Yes Bank Ltd 14.65
    Biocon Ltd 16.04
    Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd 17.89
    Idea Cellular Ltd 18.31
    Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd 18.60
    Tata Global Beverages Ltd 19.39
    Divi's Laboratories Ltd 20.55
    Voltas Ltd 21.34
    Havells India Ltd 25.57
    Natco Pharma Ltd 28.48
    Titan Industries Ltd 32.59
    Marico Ltd 33.02
    Godrej Consumer Products Ltd 33.90
    Dabur India Ltd 34.10
    Bata India Ltimited 34.91
    Eicher Motors Ltd 36.40
    EIH Ltd 36.45
    Castrol India Ltd 38.62
    Pidilite Industries Ltd 43.13
    Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd 49.21
    Indian Hotels Co Ltd 60.51
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean And The Hunt For Hidden Needles In A Giant Haystack [View article]
    Yes. I've lifted my allocation to RIG to 12.5% of my equity. Have a bit more to add to get there. If it gets to $14, my allocation goes to 15%, which is where I max out allocations (i.e. further buys if the price falls even lower will take allocation back to 15%, not higher).
    Dec 16, 2014. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean And The Hunt For Hidden Needles In A Giant Haystack [View article]
    Certainly looking that way! I'll be buying all the way down.
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Tax Loss Harvesting And Why Should I Care? [View article]
    Alternative. Sell the loss making share. Immediately buy an ETF over-weighted in the stock being sold. Loss harvest plus a modified bed & breakfast transaction combo!

    Then after 31 days, sell the ETF and buy back the original position. Works okay when a stock is highly correlated with a sector or industry ETF. This also allows you the leisure of delaying action until later in the year if you so desire. Works nicely if a stock is particularly bearish relative to its sector/industry, because often the loss at stock level is > the loss on the more diversified ETF. So when you switch the ETF back to the share, you could end up owning more shares. The risk is the opposite can also happen!
    Nov 13, 2014. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean And The Hunt For Hidden Needles In A Giant Haystack [View article]
    Good call on price. When I wrote this post, I though sub $30 was possible, but far from probable. It is the curse of value investing: buy a 3 bagger, it becomes a 5 bagger, and then on occasion a 10 bagger! If I buy at $50. It falls to $30. And then falls to $15. Assuming it goes to $150 one day, all buy decisions were good, but some were better.
    Oct 15, 2014. 07:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Correction Scorecard: Have We Seen The 'Capitulation' Yet? [View article]
    If you can't bring yourself to invest in the energy sector at present, at least tank up your car today!

    Reuters had an interesting piece on why Saudi might hike production and target market share instead of cutting production - historic lessons from decades prior. http://reut.rs/11hJGzK

    The world learns from history. For the world it is the middle ground we seek: neither the Weinmar inflation, nor the Great Depression's deflation - a balance between the two to bring about a beautiful de-leveraging. And in the oil markets, it is the booms and busts of the past we need to avoid. The trouble with low oil prices today, is that it virtually assures very high prices and shortages later. UDW has a long lead time. So barring temporary aberrations, I don't see oil prices likely to stay much below $85-$90 for long.
    Oct 14, 2014. 03:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infosys: A Hold With Much Upside From Multiple Expansion And Growth [View article]
    I like it very much. But the big upside will come only after the Kapoor V Kapur saga plays out.
    Oct 12, 2014. 03:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Market Karma Reversed? [View article]
    Gosh, I could have sworn they rung a bell, but one which very few people hear.

    Only kidding. I am already long several companies which have been senselessly slaughtered. In fact have been long those companies for several years. And now I am looking to add more positions as the panic escalates.
    Oct 9, 2014. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Market Karma Reversed? [View article]
    Nice article Jennifer. I think with the anticipated supply glut, people are blind to the massive geo-political risk associated with oil supply. They are wrong. The time to buy is near, if not here. Subdued demand growth expectations means the time to buy may not yet be here, but it is near. Crystallization of supply side geo-political risk event, or recovery in demand is all it will take for a strong reversal.

    IMO OPEC production management is important, but oddly enough I find that the market bottoms nearer the time when OPEC cuts stop. I suspect OPEC will stop cuts as soon as price approaches the marginal cost of the last non OPEC barrel of oil produced to satisfy demand. I'd like to believe that's in the region of Brent at $85 to $90. Perhaps a bit ($5 to $10) lower since the delay in ultra-deepwater projects suggests that tranche of higher marginal cost of production is already out of play.

    Of course it is impossible to call a bottom, because in times of panic oil prices might approach the average (not marginal) cost of the last non OPEC barrel of oil produced to satisfy demand before inventory is cleared and capacity is cut by closure of non viable units.

    I am long on several E&P, Oilfield Services, and Drillers. And am looking to raise allocation to the energy sector before long.
    Oct 9, 2014. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ICICI Bank: Looking For A Gain Potential Of 32% To 62% Over 6 To 18 Months [View article]
    William, I doubt the payout ratio will increase much over 25% for the next several years. ICICI Bank has a high re-investment rate as a result of the need to drive growth. And India is so under-banked that it will be many, many years before the payout ratio rises to closer to 55% to 60%. However, I do think you will see dividend growth of near 8% to 10% in $ terms over the long term as a result of growth.
    Oct 6, 2014. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 42 Good Companies: Do They Trade At A Good Price? [View article]
    I suspect you are right. For co's like GILD & MRK there is so much that could go right (or wrong) with the science, that estimation of where earnings might go is difficult - I work with what there is in existence, plus a little bit extra for new drugs based on FDA historic past success rates for the industry in the field of discovery.

    For FB too I agree: monetization of mobile is on the right path, but the dilution on account of ESOP's and acquisitions can be very substantial - and while that is not a worry during times of rapid growth, it might be a worry in the future. For now, I do reckon FB is a decent buy below $71.80 (see http://seekingalpha.co...), but it was tastier not so long ago - then there was alpha available, now maybe not so much.
    Sep 9, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India: The Economic Cycle Turns And The Sensex Bull Rages Onwards [View article]
    Kenny - Have a look at an older post on India where I had a quick look at several India ETF's http://bit.ly/1tpWiA8.

    I think EPI is a pretty neat India multi-cap option. I like the fact that it is earnings weighted (brings in some focus on the growth/value equation) and includes small and mid-caps (represents the economy better). You can read more about EPI at http://bit.ly/1tpWakh and http://bit.ly/1tpWakk.

    The ETF can be somewhat more volatile than I like - which is why I believe that the one thing lacking in the ETF is consideration of "risk" as a criteria in allocation - using the five factor model to help determine how much capital to allocate to each stock might have helped lower volatility & improve long-term performance.

    INDY is a reasonable way to track the NIFTY Index. But of course you'd need to hedge if you wanted a lower tracking error.
    Sep 2, 2014. 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Will Lose The Battle Of Day Rates [View article]
    "Transocean (NYSE:RIG) is all set for the initial public offering of Transocean Partners LLC. In addition to the IPO announcement, the company has recently announced its second quarter earnings."

    The IPO is history. Transocean Partners LLC (NYSE:RIGP) trades with the Ticker RIGP.
    Aug 15, 2014. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: Low On Market Risk And High On Alpha [View article]
    Wal-Mart reported results in line with expectations, but guided 2014 down to $4.90 to $5.15, down from $5.15 to $5.45 previously. Its flat pre-market. How ugly might it get?

    a) If it trades at the lowest multiple of dividends as was seen in 2012, it could fall as low as $69.

    b) In recent years Wal-mart has yielded as high as 2.7%, with the dividend at $1.92, that yield would be achieved at $71.

    c) If we assume that the very long-term growth rate will fall to 2.8% (consistent with recent revenue growth), with earnings guidance at 2014 $5.02, and beta at 0.6 implying an investor return requirement of 7.95%, and a dividend plus buyback net of dilutions on account of employee and other issuances payout ratio of 70%, the stock would be rightly valued at $70.
    Aug 14, 2014. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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