Shiv Kapoor

BHP Billiton: A Booming Company

Mangiamillie

I have just completed an initial look at ITW; remembered you had asked. You can have a look at the valuation report at www.maxkapital.com/Val....

Its trading just below intrinsic value, but above my estimate of fair value.

On Aug 02 11:21 AM mangiamillie wrote:

> Great analysis. How about TCK and dear old ITW?

BHP Billiton: A Booming Company

BP, SLB, BHP & INTC best quality - I'd reluctantly eliminate SLB if I was forced to keep it at three; BP offers better safety because of the yield.

RTP, NOV, NOK, MT, AAUK, VALE & DE all have good appreciation potential - I like MT, AAUK & DE best.


On Jul 30 04:01 PM jimp wrote:

> Shiv,
> Looking forward (long term) and attempting to predict the future,
> what are your 3 favorite stock picks from your recent articles that
> you think have the most potential?
>
> Excellent analysis.

What Does the Future Hold for China's Steel Industry?

Nice post. See this article www.upi.com/Business_N.../
about a major iron ore discovery in China - long life at 50 years and massive with 3 billion ton capacity. Fe content seems vague at 25% to 62%; the higher end of the spectrum is promising but still well below Brazil Fe content of 68%.

Fractured Wall Street Fairy Tales #1: Buy and Hold is the Best Strategy

Joseph - I think you misunderstand buy and hold as a concept; a chart can never illustrate the success of a buy and hold investor, because the value of a stock at any point in time is irrelevant to his thinking - you see their return they earn comes substantially by way of dividends.
Buy and hold investors will not normally buy at any old value with a view to holding forever. They are typically investors who buy deep value and then hold forever. The most successful have an attitude which attributes no value to the future value of the share - i.e. even if the share value goes down substantially it does not matter, so long as the share continues to payout an income.
One such investor known to me has a simple buy policy; he buys when the dividend of a stock together with a 3% annual growth assumption can be had at a value which delivers him a 15% rate of return expected in perpetuity - for example if a stock pays a dividend of $1 and he is very confident it can grow this dividend at a 3% rate over the very long term, then he will buy it when it is selling for $8.58 {Dividend * 103%/[115%-103%]}. On rare occasions he will sell; but only when he has lost confidence in a stocks ability to continue its dividend together with growth at 3% annual. The index is not relevant - for instance at this point in time, he feels the index (SP500) would only represent deep value at 420 levels; because at that level a dividend payout of $24 (his estimate of dividend trough) will give him a return of 15% assuming 3% annual dividend growth. While the market has not got near his levels, several stocks have.
Twenty years on he receives a dividend which yields him 30% of his original cost. And yes, he sits on a huge capital gain; but to him that is meaningless.