Shiv Kapoor

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger?

It is not possible to own every stock I like. I create a watch list and look to buy into various stocks I like as and when I replace a position I have recently exited (normally to book a profit or rotate to sectors I expect will outperform).
For example, at present I am keen on buying HD and HMC as these are discretionary stocks, which I feel are good long term buys and I expect them to outperform in the short term - I could buy them buy booking some gains on my early cyclicals but am reluctant to do so simply because the condition of the US consumer is a higher risk compared with growth opportunities in IT/Industrials/Materials which are getting better support from overseas. Nevertheless first use of surplus cash will go to these stocks because I am as overweight early cyclicals as I will accept. If HMC/HD outperform following purchase, I will book profits (not principal) in 3 to 6 months and use the profits to buy into COP/CVX which are also stocks I like; but I expect these (energy sector) to outperform later in the cycle; I will also use funds from partial exit of industrials to finance build in energy positions.

Slightly further down the road, I am very keen on buying JNJ/KO/VOD/WMT; these will be defensive & income positions and will be purchased on exit of positions (more likely booking profits) in early cyclicals - basic materials/industrials/...

There is really nothing sinister about writing about an interesting stock and watching it until it makes sense to buy - after considering alternative opportunities and liquidity and forward outperformance expectations. Can you honestly declare that you own every stock you like? If not, why should I?


On Oct 01 06:43 PM Oilbull wrote:

> Just joking on the Dell thing...but seriously, why write up a report
> on something you have no interest in either pro or con?

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger?

Stop being amazed. It is not possible to own every stock I like. I create a watch list and look to buy into various stocks I like as and when I replace a position I have recently exited (normally to book a profit or rotate to sectors I expect will outperform).
For example, at present I am keen on buying HD and HMC as these are discretionary stocks, which I feel are good long term buys and I expect them to outperform in the short term - I could buy them buy booking some gains on my early cyclicals but am reluctant to do so simply because the condition of the US consumer is a higher risk compared with growth opportunities in IT/Industrials/Materials which are getting better support from overseas. Nevertheless first use of surplus cash will go to these stocks because I am as overweight early cyclicals as I will accept. If HMC/HD outperform following purchase, I will book profits (not principal) in 3 to 6 months and use the profits to buy into COP/CVX which are also stocks I like; but I expect these (energy sector) to outperform later in the cycle; I will also use funds from partial exit of industrials to finance build in energy positions.

Slightly further down the road, I am very keen on buying JNJ/KO/VOD/WMT; these will be defensive & income positions and will be purchased on exit of positions (more likely booking profits) in early cyclicals - basic materials/industrials/...

There is really nothing sinister about writing about an interesting stock and watching it until it makes sense to buy - after considering alternative opportunities and liquidity and forward outperformance expectations. Can you honestly declare that you own every stock you like? If not, why should I?

On Oct 02 01:24 PM The Hammer wrote:

> I amazes me that people write these articles then disclose they own
> 0 shares??
> COP has made some quality acquisitions, but mulva's timing is rather
> poor. In addition, When oil and Nat gas were sky rocketing in price
> over $100 and $12 mcf I wrote an email to the Board of directors
> telling them that they should hedge some production something like
> 25-50% and let the rest float with the market.. My main reason was
> that the oil prices was above the inflation adjusted highs and the
> company just made a few large acquisitions and it would be prudent
> to lock in some production to pay down debt , continue the dividend
> and maybe even buy in a few shares of stock. i received some non-sense
> email back stating that investors wanted the oil price to float and
> that they should hedge against it if you wanted.
>
> What a bunch of dolts on the board!

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger?

The calc indicates that for every $100 put in at annual average price of $18.10, you would have stock worth $327 today + dividend income. If you purchased 100 shares at $18.10 (adjusted for splits and div) which was the annual adjusted price during 1999, you would expect to have shares worth 3.27*$1,810 = $5,918 assuming you reinvested dividends. You have $9,508 and have done much better. My guess is that you were wise enough to have bought at lower adjusted closing prices (range during 1999 was $14.32-$21.67) and you must have benefited from the 2 for 1 split in June 05. In my view return of 525% over your holding period coupled with dividend income of over $250/year is a very good return.


On Oct 02 08:27 AM Shocked wrote:

> Something is very wrong with your math calculations. I have had 100
> shares since 1999 and I have reinvested the dividends and my total
> value is only $9508. So where is my money?

Oil Will Only Fall So Far

Oil will fall only so far for now. But how far is far enough. Near term, oil is oversold; by 11 September a couple of weeks of falling inventories & the result of OPEC should firm up oil. Russia is another threat but one already priced in. Still got a month of hurricanes & then winter demand. So worst case would be $95-$100.

But thinking longer term - where goes oil? Ultimately, equilibrium is where demand meets supply. In a perfect market, price would strike at the marginal cost of a barrel; which is near $50. That, or somewhat below is where I see the bottom for oil in the next cyclical oil bear within a great secular bull.

I would go long oil once it starts consolidating & go short rate sensitives & financials.