Shiv Kapoor

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

This is in response to your observation "Industry? What Industry?". To date this quarter, 453 companies of the SP500 have reported earnings. Of these 63 are Discretionary, 32 are Staples, 40 are Energy, 79 are Financial, 50 are Healthcare, 56 are Industrials, 61 are IT, 28 are Materials, 9 are Telecom and 35 are Utilities. Over 12% of the total 453 SP500 companies which have reported are industrials. Many of these industrials are global leaders in their field; industry in US is far from dead - the collapse of GM (which was always included in discretionary anyway) has made Americans lose sight of the fact that it has a very powerful industrial sector anyway. In my view The tickers are:
MMM, AVY, BA, BNI, CHRW, CAT, CTAS, CBE, CSX, CMI, DHR, RRD, DOV, DNB, ETN, EMR, EFX, EXPD, FAST, FDX, FLS, FLR
GD, GE, GR, GWW, HON, ITW, IR, IRM, ITT, JEC, LLL, LMT, MTW
MAS, MWW, NSC, NOC, PCAR, PH, PBI, PCP, RTN, RSG, RHI
ROK, COL, R, LUV, SRCL,TXT, UNP, UPS, UTX, WMI.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Been watching your comments on GS. Dunno why I have a bad feeling about this. Cant see anyone, be it a person or a program beating the markets in perpetuity; buy and hold person like Buffet perhaps, trader unlikely. Am hoping GS is not Enron II in the making. In the meantime, I do hope the auditors are exercising extra due diligence.

Global Market Roundup: Will the Bailout Work?

The rescue package will take time to work its magic. And while people watch for indicators of success from implementaion of the rescue package, there is a possibility that better opportunities might emerge. This is time when perceived risks are higher than real risks. In the short term, corporations may well find earnings potential fall below long term earnings potential; and this might cause better entry points. However several economic risks are already priced in. This is a market for long term investors (5/6 years). Sector allocation is important, overweight positions need to determined based on which sectors will benefit most during the next cyclical upswing; also to consider is over-weighting the presently undervalued sectors; and finally consider the sectors which outprform based on where we are in the economic cycle today. Investors should also not forget to rebalance portfolios more frequently than in normal times. Finally, do not forget diversification across asset classes. Its a good market for traders too; volatility is high which is good for day traders. Positional traders can also look forward to an up quarter followed by a re-test of lows. This is one of those times when there is opportunity for everyone, regardless of style - short term/long term/trader/bull/bear. The only styles I would say might feel a bit left out is growth; because I think this is a time value will outperform and off course, small caps should lag large caps.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Dave - this is Brilliant; my all time favorite post on any blog. The pictures tell an interesting tale. Loved the walk through Sam Stovall's economic cycle. What is going on in the financial services sector is history in the making. If United States is unable to quickly start the healing process, there is no secular force in the world which can withstand this crisis. I can sing on about the China secular story, or the Indian one, or even Russia and Brazil for that matter; but to survive and prosper, the United States financial crisis must first start the healing process.

Can you do a piece about which sectors out-performed after the LTCM collapse, the Asia Contagion & the oil shock? I believe there are interesting parallels to learn from in all these historic events. Of course this situation is absolutely unique and its outcome will depend on governmental action and how the public reacts; but the prior events do provide an interesting indication of how people might respond. Could be a flight to staples, health-care and utilities. I still think there are compelling catalysts for global growth (Materials, Industrials & Energy), but this overhang is huge, because to grow one must first have access to capital - which seems to have evaporated from the system.