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Shmulik Karpf

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  • Why Annaly Capital's Stock Will Continue To Fall [View article]
    I disagree with your sentence: "Nowhere is this reckless use of debt more evident that Annaly’s own dividend policy".
    You are forgetting that NLY is a REIT which is obligated to pay 90% of its revenues in the form of dividends in order to enjoy this preferable status.
    Jan 3 08:48 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Green Mountain Madness [View article]
    I agree with the authors. I have been doubting GMCR earnings for quite some time now,
    Nov 3 07:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle - Unfriendly To Shareholders [View article]
    That is not "double speak" - that is precisely my point - Oracle IS indeed a fantastic business. But not for its shareholders. Hence, I do not want to be a shareholder.

    No need to be sarcastic,
    much success,
    Feb 13 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs In 2013 - Friend Or Foe To Dividend Payouts? [View article]
    hi SkiDad,
    I cannot blame you for entering this position. Everyone and his brother was shouting "buy for NLY for income" and all that hype. I did my best to try and prevent other investors from falling in this trip.

    Now, if I were you - I WOULD NOT sell my position and lock a loss. In time (2 -3 years) dividends will likely compensate you for your capital loss.

    Jan 4 01:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs Investors, Beware! [View article]
    if I'm wrong, I promise I will write an article documenting my mistake, how about that?

    Sep 13 02:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lost Decade For Microsoft Investors [View article]
    hi Michael,
    I would love to initiate a 'live' competition with you on MSFT - you Short MSFT while I am Long it. We can set up certain points in time in the future for comparison of results,

    the best,
    Jul 15 04:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Selling Chesapeake Short [View article]
    Yes, as a matter of fact I also believe that CHK is greatly undervalued. It is a great buy at current prices.

    May 8 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - The Beginning Of The End [View article]

    When do you decide to sell a stock that you were long on?
    Each trader follows his own trading rules. Closing a short (buying to cover) is no different that selling a long position in the stock.
    I outlined the general instructions on my SA piece. Should there be any changes with time, I will be sure to update.

    Apr 4 02:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - The Beginning Of The End [View article]
    Well, definitely a lot of comments. Always nice to see.
    I have a couple of comments of my own, but of course they refer only to traders/ investors rather than to simple haters..

    1. NLY distributes its dividend based on FUTURE profits, not on PAST profits. One commentator got it the other way around. Please read NLY's 10-k carefully. Yes, that means that NLY is anticipating a reduction in profits. Contracting spreads mean less profits for NLY.

    2. All the facts in this article are correct. Of course, shorting a stock ALWAYS makes shareholders cry foul. Investors have a long track record of falling in love with dividends, all the way to the end, to the point where the company cannot support those dividends any more. For further information, please research the case of Allied Capital.

    3. Of course I use technical analysis. You do NOT trade on valuations alone. You trade on the technicals combined with valuations. That is the only way to consistently make money in the markets. That is how I am able to make annual trading profits of over 25% yoy.

    For all of you who have some pending doubts about my trading abilities, please bear in mind that I trade for a living, in contrast to most people on SA. That is, I make money by trading rather than by selling all kinds of publications/ papers/ stock newsletters etc.

    The reason I have so many followers relative to the number of articles is because my followers have made a substantial amount of money by mimicking my trades. Since my track record is out in the open, I suggest that anyone who is interested please take a look at my profits on: GM, CHRS, BKS, NFLX, JCP, YHOO, ATW and many others. Nothing to hide there.

    I will keep making money for my followers.

    Much success in your trading,
    Mar 22 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get $1,000 Dividend Checks From Altria [View article]
    Hi Tim and thanks for the analysis,

    One point worth mentioning is that the current payout ratio of MO, as reported by Morningstar, is a whopping 93%.
    A high payout ratio works just like leverage- A little movement in price and your equity is erased.

    If Altria suffers a slight downturn in earnings, its dividend will be the first thing to get hurt... And then, your future projections will remain theoretical.
    Oct 4 11:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Would Navigate The Troubled World Of mREITs [View article]
    I couldn't believe that it's your name on this bearish article.... You have been a great advocate of NLY when shares traded at $17... and now you're saying - no hope??

    I, on the other hand, warned investors to stay away from REITS a year ago and received quite a lot of heat from you...:-)

    It's fascinating how dynamic the market can be - isn't?
    Nov 20 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How You Can Make Money On Acquisition Rumors [View article]
    Glad I could help Joelkatz,
    All the best,
    Aug 17 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle - Unfriendly To Shareholders [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Ravee,
    I believe that Microsoft and Cisco beat Oracle very easily when it comes to dividend payouts and share buybacks.

    Keep in mind that Oracle share buyback program is just barely sufficient to cover the massive dilution caused by its stock option warrants,

    much success,
    Feb 13 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs In 2013 - Friend Or Foe To Dividend Payouts? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Professor K.

    Yes, the market moves in trends. and that is when the "buy" or the "sell" screams are heard most visually.
    Nevertheless, If there is one thing I should be getting credit for - it is the imminent warnings I issued against mREITs back at the late of the summer when everyone was shouting "Buy for income" as if this is some miracle cure for something.

    Having said that, yes, CIM might actually turn out to be a great play. but not at the price it was trading than,

    Jan 4 02:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs In 2013 - Friend Or Foe To Dividend Payouts? [View article]
    Well yrbe, you know how it is like. You can't time the market, but you should always aspire to make informed calls on it.

    Jan 4 02:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment