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Shmulik Karpf
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Shmulik Karpf works as an equity analyst at Leumi Global Markets. Prior to that, he worked as an analyst at the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, He is also a certified corporate attorney in Israel. Shmulik constantly attempts to come up with new creative investment ideas that go beyond the standard line... More
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  • Icahn And Apple - The Good, The Bad, And The Unknown

    On August 13th, activist investor Carl Icahn disclosed a large stake in Apple (AAPL). This caused quite a steer on the markets which sent apple stock shooting up. Now, after a month has passed since Icahn's announcement and the dust has settled - It's worth taking a closer look at what this really means for Apple shareholders.

    The good

    Ichan is sending a strong signal to the market that Apple's stock is deeply undervalued. He's probably right. At a price-to-earnings of only 12.5x, and at a price-to-cash flow of a lowly 10x, the company seems exceptionally attractive both in absolute terms and in comparison to the broader market.

    But the final destination of Icahn's signal isn't the market. It's Apple's management and Tim Cook in particular. In that sense, the purpose behind Icahn's move is to extract value from Apple. That's because merely sitting on a cash hoard of $147 billion (and counting...) is the classic definition of an inefficient deployment of capital.

    Icahn wants Apple to increase its share buyback program from $60 billion to $150 billion by putting some of its cash pile to work and by issuing more debt at 3%. I'm a big advocate of share buybacks as long as they are executed at a convenient price. Since Apple's shares are highly undervalued right now- buying more of them is a very sensible move.

    The bad

    In a sense, Icahn's move might hurt Apple shareholders in two ways.

    One, Apple's balance sheet will inevitably become more leveraged. This isn't necessarily a good thing. That's because the debt market is now in a totally different state than six months ago when Apple first raised $17 billion. It's now much tougher and more expensive to raise money.

    Two, Icahn's announcement has caused Apple shares to climb higher, and faster. In fact, since Ichan's position was revealed Apple's shares have climbed from around the $460 level to more than $500. This might not seem such a big move at first glance, but a 9% increase in share price is a big deal when the company is in the midst of an aggressive share buyback program. Shareholders probably have been better off if the company had been able to quietly and gradually accumulate shares at $460 rather than at $500 and up. In a way, Icanh's victorious announcement came at the expense of existing shareholders, himself included.

    The unknown

    Whether Icahn's investment is successful or not remains to be seen. There are three points that remain deeply in fog.

    1. Apple has already engaged in a highly aggressive buyback program. Following Einhorn's pressure on the company, Apple has increased its then $10 billion buyback program to a staggering $60 billion program. It doesn't seem likely that Apple will consent to burden itself with another debt load just to increase its buyback program.
    2. Even if Apple miraculously agrees to Icahn's plan and ups its buyback program -it's still not a sure sign of a long term success. Microsoft (MSFT), for example, has spent an aggregate amount of a quarter of a trillion dollars (that's not a spelling mistake) buying its own shares for the last 15 years. Yet, its stock price sits exactly where it was back in 1998, according to Forbes.
    3. Perhaps Icahn's real goal is not to make money on Apple but on a different company. Icahn controls 16% of Nuance Communications (NUAN), the maker of the software that powers the voice feature in Apple's phones. The rumor is that Icahn intends to influence Apple's management to acquire Nuance. This will give Icahn a nice little bundle.

    My conclusion

    Whether or not existing Apple shareholders will benefit from Icahn's involvement with the company still remains to be seen. But the most important thing to keep in mind is that Apple shares are still deeply undervalued whether or not Icahn is a shareholder. I recommend to buy shares up to $550.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Sep 09 10:55 AM | Link | Comment!
  • ITMN- Trade Summary
    On January 25th, I recommended my strategy on how to make 4% a week during this earnings season.

    In this article, I explained that the golden path to earnings is to only trade once the odds are in your favor. What I mean by that is to only trade companies which have a proven record of robust percentage change in stock price on the earnings day itself. Short those stocks on the day prior to their earnings report.

    We implemented this strategy on ATW last week and we made 3% a day.

    Our next candidate was- ITMN. We shorted it prior to its earnings announcement on Thursday, after the close.

    The company reported missing earnings and the stock lost almost 6%. For any of you who have not yet closed the short (bought to cover), this is the time to do so.

    We got ourselves another winner overnight.
    Tags: ATW, ITMN
    Feb 13 5:07 PM | Link | Comment!
  • FCX On The Verge Of A Breakout
    Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) is the world's leading copper company. After taking a beating in the second half of 2011, it is now nearing a breakout pattern.

    Buy FCX above $42.5, take profits at $45. Set your stop at $41.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Jan 15 3:20 AM | Link | Comment!
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  • MSFT is a great buy right now. Do not mind the 25% increase in 2012. Do not let this scare you out of a great bargain.
    Feb 22, 2012
  • It seems like my trade in ATW is playing out very nicely. The company missed earnings and losing 4.2% in the aftermarket.
    Feb 2, 2012
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