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  • Excluding World Cup Impact, Twitter Is Worth $31 - $34 Per Share [View article]
    Yoyo,

    The pain is unbearable.

    SE
    Aug 26 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Conversation With Kamakura - What Did Bondholders Tell Us Prior To Q2 Earnings? [View article]
    Adam,

    Notice how the article is titled, What Did Bondholders Tell Us "Prior" to Q2 earnings. His $1.35/share valuation never implied bankruptcy.

    SE
    Aug 26 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Conversation With Kamakura - What Did Bondholders Tell Us Prior To Q2 Earnings? [View article]
    Adam,

    The Shock Exchange does not necessarily think the company is headed for default. If so, that won't occur until the first half of 2016, if at all. That's probably why the default probability is so low.

    SE
    Aug 26 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Conversation With Kamakura - What Did Bondholders Tell Us Prior To Q2 Earnings? [View article]
    Jack,

    A few things:

    [i] Neo's prices and earnings have declined since the original deal. Secondly, since the Magnaquench patents have expired, its earnings and/or valuation may not return to previous levels.

    [ii] The thing that complicates matters is that Molycorp has raised $1.5 billion in debt - nearly $2B if you include Oaktree financing - much of which was related to Mountain Pass. However, the lion's share of MCP's earnings come from Neo. As a bondholder, you would not want MCP to sell Neo out from under you and then not repay the debt. That smacks of "fraudulent conveyance" - where the equity holders pay themselves at the expense of bondholders.

    [iii] Lastly, I think I read somewhere that Oaktree contemplating using Neo as collateral to back their $400MM financing package. If that happens, the company will be restricted from doing certain things with Neo.

    SE
    Aug 26 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Conversation With Kamakura - What Did Bondholders Tell Us Prior To Q2 Earnings? [View article]
    Donald,

    I thought you would appreciate the mention and the de facto co-sign for the work your firm does. Secondly, the conversation was mainly a description of your process for determining the "cheapest" bonds. Nothing was specific to Molycorp.

    SE
    Aug 26 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Conversation With Kamakura - What Did Bondholders Tell Us Prior To Q2 Earnings? [View article]
    Donald,

    I totally understand. I apologize for any breach in professional protocol.

    SE
    Aug 26 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do The iPhone 6 And Air Jordan Have In Common? [View article]
    Hardog,

    Euphoria over iPhone 6 sales will drive the stock higher. The next catalyst will be the iWatch, which may drive the stock even higher.

    SE
    Aug 25 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do The iPhone 6 And Air Jordan Have In Common? [View article]
    ppars,

    The Shock Exchange had not thought about marketing of the iWatch, but if Apple takes this tact there will be a frenzy.

    SE
    Aug 25 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Is Worth $1.35 Per Share [View article]
    Alpha80,

    The Shock Exchange tried to roll forward the losses for next year, but excel didn't have enough 0's to calculate them.

    SE
    Aug 25 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Sans Oaktree Financing, Q1 2015 Bankruptcy Likely [View article]
    morongobill,

    It's more like the latter. Molymet has been buying the convertible bonds which is a better investment than the equity that this point.

    SE
    Aug 25 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Investors Register To Sell 23.8 Million Shares, Stock Dives 10% [View article]
    morongobill,

    Will do.

    SE
    Aug 25 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Investors Register To Sell 23.8 Million Shares, Stock Dives 10% [View article]
    Joe,

    MCP longs love to shoot the messenger.

    SE
    Aug 25 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Is Worth $1.35 Per Share [View article]
    Zoiks,

    [i] The rest of the debt ... what about it? Why is that important here.
    [ii] Projections going forward? More losses?
    [iii] Multiples - a multiple of negative earnings means Molycorp should pay investors to take the company of management's hands.
    [iv] What is your valuation since you know so much?

    SE
    Aug 25 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Is Worth $1.35 Per Share [View article]
    zoiks,

    "Priced" or "Priced/Structured", however you want to interpret it.

    SE
    Aug 25 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Is Worth $1.35 Per Share [View article]
    mausam.duggal,

    The short thesis is over and the stock is still worth $1.35 per share. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    SE
    Aug 25 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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