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  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    roatmj,

    You're right, the inventory is a "sunk" cost so it doesn't affect cash flow. Yet it does lower book value which is the only metric one can use to value MCP. More importantly, why is inventory rising? If MCP gets enjoyment out of simply building inventory then the company needs new management. If the price for rare earth oxides have fallen below its production costs then that's similar to the problem it had a decade ago when it closed Mountain Pass.
    Mar 24 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Housing Stocks Headed For A Fall [View article]
    Thank-you. I also shorted it.
    Mar 24 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    Here's a run down of other companies in the space (http://seekingalpha.co...).
    Mar 24 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    stocks3066,

    Could you me where it's been priced in? Obviously I don't think it's been priced in because the article says "Avoid Molycorp."
    Mar 24 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    roatmj,

    But how much is the company worth today? Are you willing to overpay today for upside later? Insiders and institutions aren't. In January they bought the stock at $6/share - its fair price - while common shareholders had to buy it $8 - $9/share. If it's worth $4 or $3/share today then that's where I want to buy in at. I want to be on par with insiders and institutions.
    Mar 24 07:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    Touche'.
    Mar 24 07:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    votingmachine,

    I don't think I am constructing arguments to support previous conclusions. On the previous article, "Molycorp Q4 Earnings: Digging Into The Details" (http://seekingalpha.co...), I clearly stated I thought inventory was a problem but needed to see the 10-K before drilling down further. After I saw the 10-K, I came up with new analysis. MCP's CEO resigned abruptly in December with no cogent explanation. Then when the year-end balance sheet comes out in March, inventory has ballooned while revenue is declining. You don't think that's odd?
    Mar 24 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    Niners 4 Life!

    He has a point of view - usually the opposite of whatever I say - so I will engage him up to a point. I admit that sometimes it's best to "agree to disagree."
    Mar 23 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    tchen, Using my previous words against me? What a dirty trick. If you believe MCP will "produce the best returns in the game" then good luck to you.
    Mar 23 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    morongobill,

    Likewise. The commenters - particularly those who have a well though out point of view - are the best.
    Mar 23 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    votingmachine,

    MCP will soon get an independent assessment of what it's inventory is worth. On the call management mentioned it was seeking an asset-backed revolving line of credit - backed by accounts receivable and inventory I assume. We're see how much inventory lenders qualify as "current" and at what rate they are willing to lend against it.
    Mar 23 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    shcst113,

    When MCP was at $50 I was still finishing up my book, "Shock Exchange: How Inner-City Kids From Brooklyn Predicted the Great Recession and the Pain Ahead" > http://clicky.me/7VvE ... "Shock Exchange" not only predicts the future of global rare earths, but the double-dip recession to come. You are right though, I wish I had shorted MCP at $50.
    Mar 23 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    hideeho, You're right. Actually I own June puts. Thanks for the correction. More importantly, did I get the $134 million overstatement correct?
    Mar 23 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    I can't win with you guys. I only bought puts on the company this past week when I realized earnings and the stock price were clearly head for a fall and there were no near term "catalysts" to support the stock. Previously votingmachine called me a "useless idiot" for writing articles not motivated by moving the stock in my favor and challenged me to "put my money where my mouth is." Here's what he said on one of my previous articles > (http://seekingalpha.co...)

    "I'll say it again. It makes you a nearly useless idiot. When you claim to be accurate at predicting a stock future price and simultaneously claim to be resistant to using that accuracy ... it is stupid. No one cares what your true investment position is. Most will assume that your analytical point-of-view correlates to your investment position anyway. Anyone with sense will have a reasonable prediction and a reasonable investment position ... and the two will be compatible.

    I will take your word that you spend your time posting analysis and responding to comments purely because you think that your time is best spent that way. I still encourage you to use your analysis to make money.

    You really should spend some time and analyze your own motivations, and your own objectives. The real point of analyzing investments is to make money investing. If you haven't made money you completely have missed the point."
    Mar 23 08:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp: Inventory Overstated By $134MM [View article]
    votingmachine,

    You are clearly taking a jaundiced view. I used the words "obsolete," "overvalued" and "stale" interchangeably. Notice how I never said it "should be written off" because some of that is at management's discretion. The premise of the article is that the inventory is overstated by about $134 million. For the last time, do you agree that the inventory is overstated and if so, by how much?

    If you are invested in MCP and you think "inventory sucks" then your investment decision says otherwise - 57% of what you're investing in is inventory.
    Mar 22 11:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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