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  • Is This The End Of Life Partners Holdings? [View article]
    Nice article Harry---i'm surprised that this thing isn't at .50 by now. I can't seem to figure it out, and maybe it is true that Pardo is boosting the share price with offshore purchases.

    I read his response to the Texas suit and his claims are that since they have 45 million in assets, including 10 million in cash and no debt, they are on solid financial ground.

    Now if we look at the assets--6.3 million is in that settlements trust, and 11 million are premium advances, roughly 11 million in property, land and equipment and 12 million in cash.

    So currently this stock is still trading at right around book value.

    But who really knows the value of the settlements trust, and well if they are put out of business by Texas, I'm sure that the stock eventually is worthless.

    And it looks like they spent over a million this quarter on legal fees to battle the SEC--now add to it trying to fight off texas and we're probably looking at over 2 million in expenses next quarter.

    So then add a 2 million dividend on top of that and the cash balance dwindles to 8, assuming that legal expenses aren't more than i noted.

    I guess if they are victorious against Texas (which I strongly doubt) then you still have a stock with serious questions trading for book value.

    I would have to think that the current risks are at least worth a 50% discount to book or $1 per share.
    Aug 17, 2012. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPAM Systems: Recent Cash Rich IPO Continues To Impress [View article]
    No i don't have a position yet--just an observation on your analysis.
    Aug 13, 2012. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPAM Systems: Recent Cash Rich IPO Continues To Impress [View article]
    Sorry and no offense, but are you really basing your buy recommendation on the fact that sell side analysts have a target price above the current one? This is not what I would consider concrete and sound analysis.

    Not a mention of revenue guidance cut due to loss of revs from biggest customer -Thomson Reuters?

    No mention of upcoming lockup and 43% ownership of private equity fund?

    C'mon man--these type of articles are pretty much useless.
    Aug 13, 2012. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Osiris Therapeutics, A Short-Seller's Dream [View article]
    Maybe not explicitly whispering in my ear and telling me, but I was aware of the pending review in Canada, noticed the uptick in price on stronger than average volume, and felt that something might be up-hence we exited the position.
    Jul 2, 2012. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Osiris Therapeutics, A Short-Seller's Dream [View article]
    Truman-you're right we got this one wrong...but also you'll see that i mentioned that i covered April 25th at $5.40 for a small loss. I noticed from the charts that the stock was likely going to get Canadian approval and i was right. Therefore while the stock has run up, I really haven't loss much at all. The fact that I acknowledged the risks ahead and got out should say something right?
    Jun 21, 2012. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stamps.com: Insider Selling, Counter-Intuitive Financial Trends Suggest Return To Sender [View article]
    Yeah i don't get it. It appears that maybe the USPS doesn't have the confidence in its own infrastructure to go at it alone maybe? Would rather hand off the lower cost mail options to others to cut down on customer service costs? I mean the USPS still gets paid, but there is no reason they shouldn't offer these other options for free as well.

    Any insight Tim if to that is true? On past calls, STMP makes it seem as if they have done a bit of hand holding and guiding of the USPS in building their online presence. IF this is indeed true--what happens when the training wheels come off? What if some of the resources that might have gone to a closed branch (or hundreds) is used to beef up the online presence.

    It only makes sense right?
    Jun 14, 2012. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stamps.com: Insider Selling, Counter-Intuitive Financial Trends Suggest Return To Sender [View article]
    Good write up, but I honestly think you missed the biggest risk of all: The USPS currently offers online shipment services with no monthly fee. While they don't currently offer all that you can get via Stamps.com such as media mail, first class mail, regular stamps, etc, this could change at the blink of an eye.

    What's stopping the USPS from adding a few more selections on their site at the expense of Stamps.com (and others)? This in my mind could wipe out Stamps.com.

    -SZ
    Jun 13, 2012. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Qihoo's Browser Really Have 60% Market Share In China? [View instapost]
    Hi Matt--great analysis---if you have a chance shoot me an email at info@shortzilla.com. Just a couple of china related questions for you.

    Thanks
    -SZ
    May 24, 2012. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Osiris Therapeutics, A Short-Seller's Dream [View article]
    We covered April 25th at $5.40 for a small loss. Didn't really like the action we were seeing in the stock and felt that there might be upcoming Canada news that would go against us. We were right about that - and while I was wrong in assuming that Canada approval wouldn't get done-- it still could be a good short. Just staying on the sidelines for now.
    May 19, 2012. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • USANA Health Sciences: Investors Need To Know The Truth About This MLM Company [View article]
    Uhh pio, that's where you are wrong my friend.

    The 222,000 Associates account for 90% of overall revenues. So even though there are 64,000 preferred customers, the fraction of revenues they provide in comparison to associates is small.
    May 15, 2012. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USANA Health Sciences: Investors Need To Know The Truth About This MLM Company [View article]
    No you're the ignorant one.

    I am in no way protecting a short.

    I have done my research on this company and thus decided to go short.

    There's a big difference.

    I only provide the facts that I have researched and in my opinion believe that my short thesis is the right one.

    Like many others before us and after us, there is obviously a difference of opinion. This is what makes the market go up and down.

    I personally have not examined Nordic or Glaxo--maybe I should? But for the time being this is my case and I stand by it. I thank you for your opinion.
    May 14, 2012. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USANA Health Sciences: Investors Need To Know The Truth About This MLM Company [View article]
    Alan don't fall for the nonsense. Any time I see these yahoos come out of the woodwork-i know that I have a great short on my hands.

    The whole Biomega fish oil comparison is ludicrous.

    If I want to purchase pharmaceutical grade double molecular distillation fish oil I can hop over to Amazon and purchase a bottle containing 270 pills for $26 (of what appears to me to be identical to what is offered by USANA).

    http://amzn.to/KgPj29

    USANA is charging retail $23.94 ($19.95 is if you are a distributor enrolled in Autoship).

    The Biomega from USANA contains 56 pills. Try to find the EPA and DHA content on the USANA site--I couldn't (http://bit.ly/JvL30K)

    From my searches on Google I find (in a somewhat deceiving description of the product) that a 'daily dose' or two pills contains 1050mg of EPA and DHA. Guess what? If i took a daily dose of those Amazon pills then I'm getting 1000mg of DHA and EPA. It's the same thing.

    And for my purchase of Biomega I get a product that based on the amount of pills received-should retail for about $5.70. (or ten cents a pill. (Based on the related product on Amazon $26/270 pills)

    Therefore the USANA product is 320% overpriced.

    Do we all understand that they HAVE to do this?
    May 14, 2012. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USANA Health Sciences: Investors Need To Know The Truth About This MLM Company [View article]
    Thanks Alan! Nope didn't buy the book. : )

    Yes I think the legitimacy comes with transparency. There is none here and with many competitors such as HLF.

    If the SEC Filings included associate turnover, and % Retail sales to non-associates and preferred customers then I would feel confident in the transparency. The problem is that these numbers in my opinion will never be provided-due to the fact that they would expose the company for what it truly is.
    May 12, 2012. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Widely Shorted for Good Reason [View article]
    Martin, this is a great story. What are your opinons on the RJR case? Not sure if you are still following Star.
    Apr 15, 2012. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Star Scientific [View article]
    The 'Zilla is on to this racket. Dr, could you please enlighten your followers as to what your compensation is from Star Scientific?
    Apr 15, 2012. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
72 Comments
53 Likes