Shrideep Murthy's  Instablog

As reports emerged last week that Microsoft might be willing to sponsor Dell's takeover as it has a $66 billion cash pile, a question arises, what is Microsoft's motive behind this deal?

Personal computer sales are falling each year and the market is being captured by tablets and mobiles. Dell and other computer makers are facing not just a shrinking market by a contraction in profit margins. This has brought the once giant Dell computers to this perilous position. Why then, bet $20 billion behind a falling giant?

This is Microsoft's defense against a vacuum that might be created should Dell go bankrupt or should PC sales fall further. Consider the personal computer market and imagine Dell going bankrupt. It will essentially create a vacuum which might be filled in by other PC makers that run Windows software or by Mac books and Android devices. Microsoft will be comfortable if the other PC makers who run Windows on their computers are able to fill in this vacuum, but it might be disastrous for Microsoft if the non-Windows market forces like Apple and Google capture this market.

In the event of Dell's bankruptcy or continued drop in sales the second option seems very likely and to protect itself against such a possibility Microsoft is willing to bet $2 billion. One of the most aggressive market players in the software sector is adopting a defensive strategy as it fights for its own survival.

The Specialty Health Services sector is very well developed in the US, but it still has a long way to go in neighboring Canada. Trying to build an early mover advantage is GreeneStone Healthcare Corporation (OTCBB: GRST). GreeneStone operates medical clinics in Ontario, Canada, and has carved out a niche for itself in health services and addiction treatment. The company operates two Endoscopy clinics in Ontario that offer services in Screening Colonoscopy for colon cancer, investigatory colonoscopy and performing endoscopy procedures if required. GreeneStone also operates a private 36 bed in-patient facility at Muskoka which serves as an addiction treatment center.

The table below shows a snapshot of the company's second quarter earnings for the past three years:

The company has two fully equipped and operational clinics, and as the number of patients continues to increase, there will be an incremental impact on the bottom line. In economics, this is called building economies of scale. This is clearly visible in the table above and makes GreeneStone a prime growth story.

An analysis of the segment wise cost structure of the company further substantiates this proposition.

In Q2, 2012, the company was able to cover its fixed costs and any increase in revenue from here on will add to the bottom line. The company reported positive operating cash flows of 195k in its latest quarter and it is very likely that the company will post a net profit for the last quarter of 2012.

Below is a timeline of the company's expansion:

Second Quarter, 2010 - Opening of the First Endoscopy Clinic.

Third Quarter, 2011 - Opening of the Addiction treatment center, Muskoka.

First Quarter, 2012 - Second Endoscopy clinic, downtown Toronto

Second Quarter, 2012 -Second Addiction treatment aftercare facility, downtown Toronto

Fall 2012 (planned) - Opening of an Eating disorder clinic, GreeneStone holds 33% stake in this venture

Outlining its strategy on October 10th, 2012, the company announced that it plans to increase the capacity of the addiction treatment center from 36 beds to 300 beds in the next two years. The management said that it intends to buy several underperforming operations both in the US and in Canada.

Below is segment wise revenue for the company:

When investing in growing companies, investors are primarily concerned about liquidity in the markets and the capital structure of the company. Let us address these issues here:

Liquidity: Market maker Wilson David & Co filed a 15C211 application to sponsor the company and undertake market making operations. This application was approved by FINRA and the stock has seen average volumes of 15,000 shares traded daily. The company announced on October 18th, 2012, that it will apply for a listing on the NYSE-Amex exchange which is anticipated to further enhance liquidity.

Capital Structure: As of June 30th, 2012, the company had a total of 23,767,535 shares outstanding. The company has notes payable outstanding that will be converted into 14,601,917 million shares at various dates until May 31st, 2014. Apart from this, there is no major planned equity dilution.

Given that this is a niche sector and GreeneStone services the Canadian market, there are no direct comparables. This limits our ability to perform a relative valuation. Since GreeneStone is still a growing company, it comes with inherent risks, and hence it may be an ideal choice only for investors who are comfortable with this kind of risk.

The greatest thing about innovation is that it has the ability to change the world. I strongly believe that Shale gas is a game changer, not only for the US but for the world. In 1970's computers and the internet were small and people wrote them off. That is where we are now in the Shale gas cycle.

Below is just a collection of all my posts focused on the Natural Gas/Shale Gas theme:

Helmerich & Payne: Long-Term Buy

http://seekingalpha.com/article/693971-helmerich-payne-long-term-buy

Nabors Industries: A Bet "only" For Risk Lovers

http://seekingalpha.com/article/704831-nabors-industries-a-bet-for-risk-lovers

Nabors Issues A Profit Warning, Is It Time To Exit?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/726911-nabors-issues-a-profit-warning-is-it-time-to-exit

Patterson-UTI Energy: A Unique Play In Oil And Gas Drilling

http://seekingalpha.com/article/713651-patterson-uti-energy-a-unique-play-in-oil-and-gas-drilling

Natural Gas Prices To Be Significantly Higher Closer To Winter

http://seekingalpha.com/article/763881-natural-gas-prices-to-be-significantly-higher-closer-to-winter