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Siddharth Dalal  

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  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "An electric car doesn't do everything better. In fact, like your Leaf, has about the 1/4 of the driving range of a petrol car. Takes 4 hours to charge. And then you're limited to the same paltry 80 miles."

    Think of range like battery life. Dumb phones have battery lives of weeks/months. My commute is <20 miles. Smartphones have one day battery life. My car is full every morning. The Leaf is perfect. Quiet, almost zero maintenance and no going to a gas station and cheaper than your favorite Kia Rio.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    @Bryce I have nothing against O, OHI or JNJ. I have considered adding O to my dividend paying investments (which currently include a wide variety of companies WM, CAT, TGH, BGS, KMI, TGT, UPS, INTC etc.).

    Tesla management has guided no GAAP profits for the foreseeable future as they spend everything on expansion.

    One of the primary reasons to invest in a company is management. And Elon Musk often puts his toes in his mouth, speaks things that he shouldn't and is completely atypical as far as management goes. But on the other hand is a refreshing change from the usual who speaks honestly about what he is thinking, feeling and aiming for. So considering historical data, we know he overpromises on timelines but generally delivers a fantastic product.

    I used to think like you that a solid history of profits and dividends is the way to go in investing but the reality is that the companies that make the products that people want and buy, build brand loyalty and die hard fans are the ones that have paid me back the most.

    On that note, neither profits nor cash flow are important as far as investing in Tesla goes. What is important is how fast can Tesla expand, can it continue the 50% YoY growth, will the Model X be as much of a hit as the Model S.

    There have been die hard fans of many auto companies before but nowhere near the level of Tesla. People are ditching the best the auto industry has to offer and even taking Tesla's on long trips when their other car would have saved them a lot of time because simply, nothing else compares for people who have owned a Tesla.

    Availability of money is no longer an issue for Tesla and is unlikely to be one anytime soon. There are very rare instances of CEOs like Elon Musk who have almost lost their entire billions to support a cause and a company and made consistent successes in such a multitude of varied businesses.

    The problem in using traditional methods to value game changers like Tesla is that by the time they fall into the traditional valuation metrics, they have grown so big that you have lost the opportunity to make a lot of money from them.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "At some point if the money spigot ever dries up", Tesla can open up deposits for Model 3.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "No, that is the risk that Tesla faces, being able to remain in business long enough to generate positive cash flow and profits." - They can do that now by sacrificing growth.

    "IT's not FUD to notice things I consider "odd" or "unusual"." Haha people quitting a company is odd or unusual. How long have you been investing, again? It seems Tesla has hit your nerves somehow? Google's (one of my other investments) CFO quit recently. Something fishy must be going on there :)

    http://entm.ag/1JeE6Rp
    Jul 21, 2015. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "If Tesla is around long enough to produce the Model 3. "

    We have heard that before
    "If Tesla is around long enough to produce the Roadster. "
    "If Tesla is around long enough to produce the Model S. "
    "If Tesla is around long enough to produce the Model X. "

    " I don't care for the hype."
    Repeated success cannot be ignored like you just did. You are the one with the hype:
    "If Tesla is around long enough to produce the Model 3. " - That is hype. People have been spreading that since the Tesla IPO. 4 years later, people who separated reality from bear hype are much better off.

    Tesla is the one doing exactly what they set out to do.

    "Tesla still has to prove itself. The CFO left. Whether it was for what he said or he didn't like what was going on with the numbers, time will tell."

    Tesla has already proved itself. All the naysayers have yet to prove themselves. Ahh more hype. CFO left. Something fishy must be going on. No evidence. Just plain FUD.
    Jul 21, 2015. 12:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "How many employees do you protect with the 10 billion, and how many do you protect with the 1 billion / year for Tesla" -

    GM gets lot more than 1 billion per year if you want to compare. They got the same or similar deals for all their factories. They get the same ZEV credits that Tesla does. Talk Apples to Apples. If you want to put subsidies on the table to compare, put them all. $10B was only the loss from the govt selling GM shares. All the other subsidies still exist and will continue to do so in much greater magnitude than Tesla.
    Jul 21, 2015. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    Let me address the second point - "faith in EVs" - I have total faith that EVs are the way to go. Two and a half years of driving a Leaf and there is no way I'll ever be happy with a gas guzzler again.

    The story is the same for any EV owner. It's like a smartphone, once you have one you cannot go back to a dumbphone again. Going green is a secondary side effect. No smelly liquids, full tank in the morning, minimal maintenance. I have solar panels too. EVs are no brainers as a primary car now if the family has a second car. With the Model 3, EVs will be no brainers as a primary car even without a second gas car.
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "Tesla, it's too soon to know, so Tesla's profitability in the future is unknown, and very speculative. " - Ha :) Reward goes with risk. Tesla is the only automotive company with an entire second line of business to fall back on with a potential market as large as the auto market. So Tesla is arguably less risky than other automakers.

    ""faith" that currently is not backed up by anything but a "faith" in Tesla and EVs" - all companies are backed by one thing and one thing only. Faith. Your faith in the management. They could be lying scumbags and vanish with your money (happened to me several times once even with a reliable company whose CEO publicly proclaimed on TV that they were fine two days before collapse - Wachovia).

    KMI is your faith that Richard Kinder is doing the right thing and will continue to do so. It's all faith. So far I have more faith in Tesla than any other company on the planet. They do while others talk. They do while others try to get governments to change/move repeal emissions targets. They recall preemptively. They make customers happy. They don't whine.

    I like to invest in companies that give customers the best product/experience. Money always comes.
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "the company left for dead." - What I described was the exact opposite of left for dead. But google "old GM" to see what was left for dead. But don't worry that time will come again with new GM too. What's going on there is more of the same. Recall after knocking people unconscious.

    "why has the Model S not surpassed the Corvette in sales yet?" - Globally it has in 2015. But, is a two door sports car a competitor to a 4 door sedan? Have you asked if the BMW 7, Merc S Class or the Porsche Panamera (the Model S competitors which it all outsells in the US) outsell the corvette?

    Also in case you missed it Tesla is growing sales as fast as they can. Faster than any other alternative fuel vehicle in history. And don't worry, the Model S will outsell the Corvette in the US soon enough too.

    Here are Corvette sales in the US:
    Year Total
    2015 18,307 (data until Jun)
    2014 34,839
    2013 17,291
    2012 14,132
    2011 13,164
    2010 12,624
    2009 13,934
    2008 26,971
    2007 33,685
    2006 36,518

    Model S is already on track to beat Corvette annual sales from 2009 - 2013 in the US. In a few years, maybe next year, they'll outsell the Corvette.

    Globally Model S will likely outsell the Corvette this year.
    Global Corvette Production
    2006 34,021
    2007 40,561
    2008 35,310
    2009 16,956
    2010 12,194
    2011 13,596
    2012 11,647
    2013 13,466
    2014 37,288

    So back at you - why can't the Corvette outsell the Model S globally?
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    "These all pay a nice dividend because they are PROFITABLE, unlike Telsa." - Being profitable today is no reason to invest in a company. How profitable it will be tomorrow is.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    @Daniel - you can stay invested in Porsche if you like. Some of us like to invest for the future.

    "Their capital expenditures are covered, development costs are covered." - We'll see how that goes when they need a dramatic shift to EVs. You must have missed Porsche's sister company Audi's struggles with making a good EV. They announced the R8 eTron in 2009. After continuous failure for many years, when the car finally became available in very limited numbers, they had to copy the Tesla battery to make it work and jettison all their own developments in large format batteries.

    I would rather invest in a company that has the future mapped out as opposed to a company so entrenched in the past that they are clueless about the future.

    "Porsche been doing it for a long time, same with chevy. The Corvette sells more than the Model S and has been around for 50 years."

    This is where the problem lies. GM died. We paid 10 billion in losses on GM stock and wiped out old GM shareholders, among other things to prop up that zombie. Porsche might be profitable now. Blackberry was profitable in 2007.

    The Model S made Panamera dead meat. The Model X will make Cayenne dead meat. The Model 3 will make the Pajun dead on arrival (Porsche cannot even decide what to do with that car, ICE, Hybrid, PHEV, EV??, all of them).

    For a performance sedan you might want to read the fine print on the Panamera launch control. By the time you actually ready that to use, the Model S will be out of sight.
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    @Daniel how long will that last with Tesla's massive constant improvements? Tesla also has a very nice gross margin on the model s. Just that they are spending to grow and keep the technological lead.

    The panamera is now old news. Soon the Cayenne will face the same fate.

    Many bears complain that longs can't differentiate between the stock and the car. The real problem is that bears are unable to differentiate between the car and the company. The car is profitable. The company is using all those profits for reckless growth.
    Jul 20, 2015. 09:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors delivers new battery option and updates on models [View news story]
    "Toyota CEO is a trickster." - The Mirai is definitely proof of that. Forget about Hydrogen, that design is enough.
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors delivers new battery option and updates on models [View news story]
    "Cells in the glove box. Cells in the seat cushions." - they have a whole frunk. Look where Ford put their cells.
    Jul 17, 2015. 04:11 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors delivers new battery option and updates on models [View news story]
    "advanced EV programs" - you must be joking. Tesla is beating the pants of their "advanced car programs" in general, forget EV programs.

    "Sector pioneers" - you mean like other car makers?
    Jul 17, 2015. 03:49 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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