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Simon Monger

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  • Euro Parity Risk Against Dollar Remains High as Germany, France Risk Ratings Cut [View article]
    I have been looking at EUO calls as a potential play on this trend. Parity by November 2010 would pay out more than 200% gain at today's price. But a bit of a gamble with the ECB - who knows if they'd consider interventions or other means to keep it propped up like some other countries (read: BOJ).
    May 12 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing the Economic Recovery with VMware, Amazon and Visa [View article]
    Revisited- just for the guy who said these calls were "retarded".

    AMZN +64%
    VMW + 81%
    V +20%

    S&P 500 +16%
    May 11 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU Scares Market into Support of Failing States [View instapost]
    In 2009, Spain's debt-to-GDP was close to 50% compared to Greece's 108%, according to the CIA's data. Of course, the possibility of default is therefore sharply lower. My point in mentioning Spain here was moreso to demonstrate the size of the bailout package.

    However, my main point in this article and others is to highlight the fact that the euro may not be sustainable in general. This is the first major recession that the euro has faced since its inception in 1999 and the inability for individual countries - which vary widely in terms of economic success - to control their monetary policy is causing major riffs.
    May 11 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target Still Lags Wal-Mart Despite Improving Numbers [View article]
    Once fully out of this recession, it is likely that the TGT/WMT pair trade will reverse, but until then Wal-Mart will likely remain the better trade. However, if you're playing the intrinsic value, I've looked at a long TGT short XRT (retail ETF) trade that has performed very well recently as Target has run-up, while taking out the overall economic risk associated with retail declines.
    Aug 21 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rethinking the Baltic Dry Index [View article]
    I would add that some of the volatility is due to the supply of ships versus the demand for them (ie. supply/demand of commodities). I read in a Reuters article recently (sorry, I can't find it at the moment) that a bunch of new builds amounting to around 30-40% of the existing fleet will go online in 2010. Despite anything but a huge jump in demand, this will keep prices under pressure. So, as an economic indicator, it is definitely questionable, I agree.
    Aug 21 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn's Greenlight Capital's Big Bets on Gold: 13F Filing - Q1 [View article]
    I'm surprised that nobody is using TIPS as a hedge much instead of gold - at least TIPS are undervalued and less volatile. Gold has had a substantial run-up and remains riskier, IMO.

    Also, Einhorn's book about Allied Capital is a great read for anyone interested in checking out exactly how corrupt the system is and how far this great hedge fund goes in uncovering fraud (or border-line fraud at least). I'd definitely recommend it.
    Aug 21 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment