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Simon Moore, CFA  

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  • Aircastle: Sustainable 4.5% Yield And $17 Price Target [View article]
    I haven't done the analysis on a per plane basis so can't speak to that, but the rest of your numbers seems right. It's a fair point that the interest rate saving will ultimately come through in lease rates, but I imagine they'll capture a short term spread there temporarily.

    Also, although AYR is cheap, I suspect it's more that aircraft leasing in general is cheap. As you mention AYR is perhaps more shareholder friendly, but the other players, that I've looked at in less detail (such as AER and FLY) have similar high level metrics and business models.
    Jan 12, 2012. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E-Trade: Don't Throw The Baby Out With The Bathwater [View article]
    Yes, I wanted to be ultra conservative on the bank given that it is loss making, I just treat it as a source of loan losses. If you're positive on the bank that further increases the upside.
    Jan 12, 2012. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • E-Trade: Don't Throw The Baby Out With The Bathwater [View article]
    Certainly fair points, the argument I find helpful is that the majority of these loans are not even 30 days delinquent and given they are mostly 2006-7 vintage they have sustained repayments for at least 4 years now, and $4B of the lowest quality is already gone through charge offs, so adverse selection has already occurred to a significant degree. I agree their loan book is not to be taken lightly, but the fact that many of these loans have survived 4 terrible years without becoming 30 days late gives me encouragement, anything that looks risky in terms of late payment I assume is a 100% loss, and the trends are improving. Still I agree if the macroeconomic environment gets worse, I would have to revisit the loan book.
    Jan 12, 2012. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aircastle: Sustainable 4.5% Yield And $17 Price Target [View article]
    Nice timing :) on price alone. or if you have reservations about the broader economy - taking profits may make sense, but I do think $17 is attainable on fundamentals and you have the 4.5% yield to cover you while you wait.
    Jan 11, 2012. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Combining Dividend Yields And Buybacks To Prioritize S&P Sectors [View article]
    Well, the benefits of a buyback are less directly obvious vs the dividend, that's certainly true and in some sense the point of my article, but buybacks are driving up the stock price and you will benefit from that (see link in my last reply) Agree that management stock plans can dilute performance, but that has nothing directly to do with buybacks, since companies with little or no buybacks can still have aggressive executive stock plans.
    Jan 10, 2012. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Combining Dividend Yields And Buybacks To Prioritize S&P Sectors [View article]
    Good questions, yes buybacks are believed to cause stock outperformance. On a 4 year basis post announcement the outperformance is 12% and higher for value stocks. See below for the reference link. There is also similar evidence that dividend stocks outperform. Also the numbers are based on actual buybacks not just announcements. But you are right that companies tend to announce more than they actually do. http://bit.ly/x8FkQ4
    Jan 10, 2012. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harley-Davidson Could Have 25% Upside Based On Restructuring Benefits And Volume Increases [View article]
    It's certainly true that if the economy is heading back into recession you don't want to own HOG, their volume growth over recent quarters makes me think that's unlikely right now, but it's certainly something to watch out for. I could be wrong, but I actually don't think the Q4 results will be much of a surprise in either direction given 9 months of the year is known along with pretty clear guidance on restructuring costs, but we shall I see, I think the growth projections will be the thing to watch out for.
    Jan 10, 2012. 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harley-Davidson Could Have 25% Upside Based On Restructuring Benefits And Volume Increases [View article]
    Sorry, I wasn't clear, I think you're right that HOG is devoted to its core brand and is unlikely to make acquisitions (and if it did make acquisitions, I doubt the stock would rise). However, with a $9B market cap and one of the best brands out there there is the possibility that the company gets acquired at a premium, $9B is certainly on the high side for an acquisition, but it's a possibility.
    Jan 10, 2012. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For A Continuing Rally In U.S. Homebuilders [View article]
    Fair point, this is more macro analysis reliant on financial reporting, if you have a specific view on property type or region, then SPF may not work for you. However, if the rally continues, I would anticipate broadening to single-family. Plus by owning a broad ETF such as ITB or XHB you are picking up various single family homebuilders rather than being more targeted.
    Jan 3, 2012. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Timeless Pieces Of Academic Research For Your 2012 Equity Strategy [View article]
    Not in the way you describe. However, the key thing to note is that the small cap and especially low price to book strategies tend to work very well in January, whereas the momentum strategy of buying winners and shorting losers tends to work very poorly in January. Of course, this is based on historical analysis and could change.
    Jan 2, 2012. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Timeless Pieces Of Academic Research For Your 2012 Equity Strategy [View article]
    True, I'm not making a point about equities being cheap or expensive, just that this is a good way to tilt your portfolio if you're already comfortable with equities.
    Jan 2, 2012. 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell As A Value Play For 2012 [View article]
    All good points, and that summarizes the bear case on Dell well. I certainly agree that you need to either factor in acquisitions to maintain the current growth rate or assume a lower growth rate for the stock. However, I don't think 2012 will be quite as negative as you suggest e.g. PC growth may be sluggish, but Dell is now well diversified into other products and services, plus some ability to pass through cost increases, and at the current price a lot of negativity is priced in.
    Jan 2, 2012. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Timeless Pieces Of Academic Research For Your 2012 Equity Strategy [View article]
    There are a number of variants of the strategy, and selecting just 2 stocks would reduce trading costs, I'd just be a little cautious about optimizing based on a single year of data, the thing I like about the article is they look across a 24 year period. But the clear thing is that momentum works over the short term where market outperformance is high.
    Jan 2, 2012. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Stocks Most Owned by 'Super Investors' [View article]
    I agree with Poortorich's comment, fundamentally the strategies employed for creating wealth are quite different to preserving it.

    I think Warren Buffet has even said he'd love to own more small caps if he could make it scale, but of course, with a portfolio of his size, he can't.
    Jan 17, 2011. 12:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
89 Comments
49 Likes