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Simon Moore, CFA

 
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  • Aircastle: Sustainable 4.5% Yield And $17 Price Target [View article]
    Yes, given the company is not selling shares there is no negative information, so if anything it's a slight opportunity in my view. However, I hold a reasonable chunk of stock across different accounts, so I won't be adding based on the price decrease, but not tempted to sell either. Also check out FLY as an alternative for relative value, the story is similar and I own that too.
    Mar 8 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aircastle: Sustainable 4.5% Yield And $17 Price Target [View article]
    Glad you found it useful, the issue with FLY is they've recently done a significant acquisition which increases their fleet size and changes their financials substantially. I'm not saying it's a good or bad thing, but it complicates the picture, if I'm able to find sufficient information I'll do the analysis.
    Jan 13 01:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aircastle: Sustainable 4.5% Yield And $17 Price Target [View article]
    I haven't done the analysis on a per plane basis so can't speak to that, but the rest of your numbers seems right. It's a fair point that the interest rate saving will ultimately come through in lease rates, but I imagine they'll capture a short term spread there temporarily.

    Also, although AYR is cheap, I suspect it's more that aircraft leasing in general is cheap. As you mention AYR is perhaps more shareholder friendly, but the other players, that I've looked at in less detail (such as AER and FLY) have similar high level metrics and business models.
    Jan 12 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aircastle: Sustainable 4.5% Yield And $17 Price Target [View article]
    Nice timing :) on price alone. or if you have reservations about the broader economy - taking profits may make sense, but I do think $17 is attainable on fundamentals and you have the 4.5% yield to cover you while you wait.
    Jan 11 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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