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Sinjjn Smythe  

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  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,

    My guesstimate for Rigs counts tomorrow will be in the 30's. I think we are reaching the end of drastic rig count reductions. The drillers need to run full tilt to service their massive debt. With Saudis and especially their OPEC partners needing oil to not drop too much further oil should be range bound between $52 to $62 NYMEX.

    What are your thoughts?
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Michael,

    Good points.

    The thing is when things go really bad everyone including Chinese and Russians run to the dollar.
    2008 is a classic example of that. Even days before the collapse both China, Russia, Brazil and India where bragging about how they were gonna displace the dollar.
    The US is the only country that dealt head on with the mess and made money from it. Europe started taking savers money in failed banks in Greece to pay for their financial mess. Europe still has not dealt with the toxic loans nor has China, Russia or Japan. China has catastrophe written across its forehead with real estate, export, manufacturing and corruption messes on a biblical scale.
    What's interesting is that US financial numbers are up and everyone else in the world is down even with a strong dollar. That tells me the US can survive on just its domestic consumption. With large oil and gas production it can effectively whether the storms that others are creating for themselves. Time to invest in large infrastructure projects so that there are plenty of jobs and wealth is created on a national scale. need to also start paying down debt.
    This is fun I haven't had a conversation like this in a long time.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Michael,

    Sounds great. can't wait.
    Everyone realizes that this WH has no clue on Foreign Policy, but neither do the Russians or Chinese.
    The Russians on Monday in the Moscow Times were screaming that the US was destabilizing their nuclear deals with hypersonic missiles which they nor the Chinese have. Then you have the US deploying on aircraft carriers laser cannons rail guns which the Russians and Chinese are at least a decade behind.

    As for energy Tesla might change the power market with their home batteries as they have with their electric cars and Space rockets.

    I'm going to start studying the crude futures contracts to see if I can time my trades better.
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Michael looking forward to it as my major was Political Science.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,

    Thanks for replying so I can understand the catalysts that move the oil markets.
    In weekly trading I look at long view as base. Then jump on spikes in on spikes.
    I trade small just outside the money and the gains are unreal and loses are covered by one of the spikes.
    I really appreciate the way you share your knowledge.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,

    Well since I wrote this comment the Saudis have come out saying they are satisfied with their objectives. What crash their own market. They did that spectacularly. Then made the US shale producers lean and mean. As prices start rising watch Shale wildcatters slaughter everyone. Has anyone ever seen such brutal self imposed fiscal belt tightening industry wide as the Shale producers have managed to do on such a large scale? I tip my hat to them.

    http://reut.rs/1ALmg2O


    My Puts went where the Saudis strategy went. So being like the Shale oil producers I bought Calls really cheap and now I'm in black.
    I see NYMex closing today at around 51.50 to 52.50. By Friday probably 53.00 then back down at start of next week to 50.00 until Saudis announce production cuts. Then 60.00 for a bit then back to mid 50's and so on for rest of year.

    Now I will start prepping for the refinery disasters that Saudis will create.


    Pedro any thoughts on all this market action?
    Feb 25, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,

    For those that rely on EIA report it comes out Wednesday morning at 10:30AM and final at 1PM, the link is below. I'm using final tallies.

    http://1.usa.gov/18GCXQA

    Ridiculously high crude oil inventories 7.7 million vs last week of 3.4 million. Slight increase in gasoline usage, but storage totals are still in the highest range.
    Saudis saying oil demand is increasing globally and China numbers up ever so small is traders using media trying to make a quick buck on your gullibility.
    Also Saudis just announced they are now seeking to be the world largest refiner of oil. That tells me that their strategy to knockout US and Canada Shale oil producers has failed miserably and now will try to price out the refiners. That will be an even bigger fiasco, because US refineries have economies of scale and most of it is for local consumption.
    Crude is up today if your on the buy side best of luck. I say that respectfully, because we are all in the same boat.
    My guesstimate is that on Friday when Baker Hughes releases its weekly rig count it will show a slight decrease in rigs shutdown (maybe in 30 range compared to to 60's the previous week and in 90's the week before that).
    I bought Puts on Tuesday when they were super low. They are holding nicely. Barring any global events we on Put side seem more confident than the Call side traders for this week.
    Pedro and Michael any thoughts on how crude oil will play out this week? Any others care to give your two cents? Please stay positive in remarks whether you agree or disagree. These comments are to inform all active traders and investors in the market.
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,
    Found this older article that helps explain how large crude oil traders are making risk free profits while crude oil is in Contango.

    Care to add your knowledge to this article?

    http://on.mktw.net/1MR...
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On Oil [View article]
    John,

    Great article. Thanks to your WTI Contract 1 & 2 graph I finally understand Contango and Backwardation.
    Feb 21, 2015. 04:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,

    Can you give your two cents worth to the refinery strikes that are hitting US. Will these strikes move in a meaningful way the crude oil needle either way this week?
    Feb 21, 2015. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Price Tug Of War: What's Happening And Why? [View article]
    Kal,

    Solid article and the comments superb. I started trading weekly oil Puts and Calls several weeks ago and the success on both sides requires me to guesstimate the day before the API and IEA numbers are released and that gives me a good idea where rig counts will be when BH releases numbers on Friday. Now you got me interested in how or where you get your Shale oil production numbers. Mind sharing or pointing me in right direction?
    Feb 20, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Michael,

    Thanks.
    I enjoy reading your articles.
    Senators are now trying to get oil transferred to Mexico. Oil lobbies are hard at work derailing trains, blowing up refineries and now lobbying Congress. I think the underlying problem is that everyone is over-leveraged with massive debt and they got to sell oil at whatever cost they can get just to stay afloat to service the debt.
    I have an idea.
    Maybe, do a bailout of all US oil companies and take ownership until they repay loans back like they did to Wall Street during 2008 financial crises. That would immediately bring stability to the markets.
    Feb 18, 2015. 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,

    I was kidding about blowing up an oil refinery and Boom goes Exxon. Not looking forward to environmental messes that they will create if President Obama does not read them the riot act in his Oval Office with cameras rolling.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,

    Would like your insight into these two articles from Reuters? Looks to me like China and Saudis are trying to go under production radar. How does that affect short term and long term prices.

    http://reut.rs/1E6s6hF

    http://reut.rs/1E6s6hJ
    Feb 18, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Crude Oil Prices Will Have To Fall Hard [View article]
    Pedro,
    Oil industry has found a new way to cut oil inventories in US and Canada and bring oil prices back up quickly by derailing trains all across the North American continent. Next watch refineries and storage facilities blow up. Then super tankers suddenly sink in harbors and calm seas. Talk about creative economics. I wonder if Putin is going to invade Ukraine just to get his oil back up, so he can ruin his country some more. I got my Puts and Calls inverses in, now for some popcorn and sofa to watch the drama unfold. Crazy times.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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