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Siwei Zhong

 
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  • An Often Unmentioned Factor About Chinese Stocks [View article]
    Yes, H and A -shares demonstrated high correlation.
    After my long time analysis I would suggest 50% in A and 50% in H.
    The simplest way is HSBC Dragon Fund ETF 0820:HK

    For those interested, here is my very old blog article:
    www.letsthinkchina.com...
    Sep 8 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Credit Crisis Will Originate in China [View article]
    First of all I do agree and believe the NPL issue with the banks (including the 3 listed in Hong Kong) is not fully solved yet. And yes they have been enlarging the denominator of the NPL formula (NP/Total Loan) to lower the NPL ratio.

    However ,

    1) chinese leaders are not stupid, they know better than anyone else what they are doing. You think they don't know about the NPL with those banks?

    2) if you agree that chinese leaders are smart, do you think they will destroy what they have achieved painfully in cleaning up the books and list the 3 major banks (Agricultural Bank of China is still not listed yet, because it's almost an impossible job to clean up the book. Farmers in China are miserable and there is simply no way for them to repay the 'debt')

    3) if you look at China as a whole rather than just pinpointing the NPL with banks, do you think China is unable to solve the NPL issue if you look at the trade surplus which is growing month by month?

    4) agree with what H.W. said. The subprime in US is not about the 1% of foreclosure, the acutal effect has been drastically multiplied by those creative financial vehicles CDO and the like.

    5) Singapore is also a '1-party' environment, but I have to say they have done an excellent job in the past 40 years.
    Jan 4 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Latest Financial Coup: Buy 'H' Shares [View article]
    donald, FXI is a good choice if you have no HK trading A/C.
    I've written an article in June comparing FXI, CAF and A50 tracker, though it's not updated but I think it is still a good reference.

    www.letsthinkchina.com...
    Aug 31 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Latest Financial Coup: Buy 'H' Shares [View article]
    a more profitable approach will be to long HSCEI index which tracks H-shares listed in HK.

    Hang Seng index has ~50% of constituents from H-shares, while Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) tracks all of them.

    i've done an excel, updated today here showing all H-share constituents discounts if anyone interested to look into individual H-share in the index
    spreadsheets.google.co...;output=html&g...

    a ETF 2828.HK is available tracking HSCEI
    Aug 21 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China 3C Group Gets Catalysts From Best Buy, Intended U.S. Listing [View article]
    somehting wrong in my message posted. it should read

    "...may be we shall think again what's the objective of having a company web site? is it a mean to communicate with 'CUSTOMER' or to sell to FOREIGN INVESTORS'. If the site is done purely in English I think its objective is more of the latter...."
    Jul 16 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China 3C Group Gets Catalysts From Best Buy, Intended U.S. Listing [View article]
    these days any company with the name 'China' can sell.

    though i have absolutely no interest in this China 3C, i've done a little sanity check

    just visited the company web site www.china3cgroup.com

    the whole site is PURELY in English, a very standard 'corporate web site' using familiar boilerplate type of template.

    wait... may be we shall think again what's the objective of having a company web site? is it a means to done purely in English I think its objective is more of the latter.


    I will avoid all these sort of companies in my portfolio.
    Jul 16 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Sell My Sina Shares? [View article]
    the peak would be around Olympics next year for all these internet media stocks. I would keep it if I were you.
    Jul 11 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutions Chasing CBM Opportunities in China [View article]
    as a matter of fact, all GEM (Growth Enterprise Market) listed stocks in HK (all stocks start with '8' ) were under heavy speculation in last 2 weeks. Up or down 20-30% was common.

    beware of those 'assets injection' stories. The most common story lines are 'energy' 'coal' and 'property'

    Though there is no solid evidence, the GEM volatility is believed to be caused by mainland investors who moved their money from A-share to HK due to the short term uncertain policy risk in China (index future, rate hike, bond issue from State Investment corp etc)
    Jul 2 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Selloff Is a Buying Opportunity [View article]
    In the organizational chart, PBoC shall be linked directly to State Council, a mistake I made in drawing the chart.
    May 30 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Selloff Is a Buying Opportunity [View article]
    IMPORTANT CORRECTION:

    The 'beer bubble' theory was made by Mr. Xiang Huaicheng, former Minister of Finance and current
    Chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund, which is another entity directly under the State Council.

    Mr. Liu Mingkang made another comment in March saying CBRC "is not taking any special measures targeting the stock market"
    May 30 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beijing Ends HSBC's China Expansion Plans Via Bank of Communications -- FT [View article]
    Chairman of Bank of Communications confirmed in public yesterday that HSBC will interest its stake through acquiring A-share. When asked by reporter whether that would happen within this year, his answer is a very positive "YES"
    May 17 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Castle in the Air: The A-Shares Craze [View article]
    what you mentioned is a long/short trading strategy commonly used by hedge fund.

    however i doubt how would that work in the A-share Fund/A-share pair in your example

    for any Long/Short, the trader must be positive on the Long and negative on the Short, or more precisely he anticipates a widening of the long/short spread.

    I dont see any reason why that would happen to the A-share Fund/A-share pair of assets as A-share stock and A-share funds are both going up starting in Jan 2007.

    A-50 index future contract is available in S'pore with very low trading volume.

    Selling future contracts would NOT generate cash to play a long/short strategy, future contracts are traded with margin and marked to market daily, and cash settled on expiry date.
    May 17 04:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danone Gives Wahaha A Hard Trademark Lesson [View article]
    it will be a dilemma to the Chinese authority too.

    In the 11th 5-year plan, developing self-owned intellectual property is a top priority for the country, China understands it can never move to the next level of economic development if it is still doing those low value added labour intensive OEM type of manufacturing. Personally I've seen how the government is promoting IPR aggressively, China is not only doing that just for the sake of comforting the US government, but also for its own economic sustainability.

    However, before it can develop such an atmosphere to promote local IPR, the first thing they need to do is to educate the Chinese enterprises to respect law and IPR. If the Wahaha trademark was assigned to Danone, China/Wahaha has to let go the nationalist sentiment.

    Though the end result is remain to be seen, I bet it will end up settled outside the court.

    I do believe the Wahaha founder Mr. Zong didn't realize what he signed up in 1996. I recently have an experience to negotiate an intellectual property related contract with a leading Chinese network equipment company, I was almost shocked to see the standard of the contract they drafted...
    Apr 16 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinhua Finance Media Debut Drop and the Current IPO Climate [View article]
    this is from the XFML F-1 document:
    '..cable and satellite television broadcasting on Inner Mongolia Satellite Television, to an estimated audience of 210 million potential television viewers in key Chinese urban areas including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.."

    so its TV viewership is those of "Inner Mongolia Satellite Television".

    Anyone wishes to bet on XFML shall first understand where Inner Mongolia is located in China !

    I just want to point out some facts:
    1) I wonder how many people in the 3 cities (Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou) are viewers of "Inner Mongolia Satellite Television", when there are so many popular local channels available.

    2) I've been doing business travel to all those cities for countless time, I am not even aware of such channel available in any business hotels I have stayed.

    I have no doubt of Ms. Bush's PR capability, but running a successful business in China requires much more than PR.

    about "most respected financial print products in China" , I think those from XFML are far from that class by any measurement at the current moment.

    Ask any fund manager in HK or Shanghai which are the most popular finance magazines. I can tell you it's Caijing. Caijing, though a PRC publication, is widely circulated in HK among those fund managers who have a need to know most updated PRC events.

    This requires no argument, go to Central in Hong Kong (the areas the HK Stock Exchange and the HK Monetary Authority are located) and check out the newstand what Chinese finance magazines are on display, as simple as that. I drop by those newstand everyday. I live in HK, I have too many fund manager friends who told me this message. I don't need further proof.
    Mar 24 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinhua Finance Media's Less Than Impressive IPO [View article]
    "Xinhua" is a very appealing brand, more specifically people are leveraging the Xinhua News Agency, the PRC government owned official news agency by getting the Agency (in most, if not all cases, a very remote affliated companies of the Agency instead of the Agency itself) as a shareholder, and then they can tell the rosy story saying they have Chinese governemnt support so on and so forth... How true is the Agency "supporting" those companies and in what sense? and how does that help the company in its daily business? I have reservation.

    for those who followed US listed Chinese stock long enough, you will know China.com (CHINA) , now renamed as CDC Corp. was also selling a story that they have Xinhua News Agency affliated subsidiary (quite remote indeed, that subsid was a company formed in Hong Kong, but I doubt whether the Agency itself even knew there was such an associated outfit in Hong Kong at all) as its shareholder, turned out CHINA was a very successful listing in NASDAQ during the dotcom era. But how does the stock perform now?

    Sorry, this sort of 'brand borrowing' story doesn't appeal to me when there are so many better PRC stocks to choose from, those companies have better fundamentals without the need to brand-borrow elsewhere.

    But I do pay very high respect to those underwriters and company founders who can create and arrange those beautiful stories.
    Mar 22 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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