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  • Teekay Tankers Ltd. - An Alternative Analysis [View article]
    Agree per above.
    I will try to put together a follow up on what looks attractive. Would appreciate your input
    Dec 31 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers Ltd. - An Alternative Analysis [View article]
    I respectfully disagree with you on this. Just because a company issues equity does not mean existing shareholders are diluted. What matters is the price the new shares are issued. If shares are issued at a price greater than book value / intrinsic value / NAV, then existing shareholder value is increased. If issued below, then they are screwed (term of art). In the case of TNK, shares were issue to TK, the parent, for the latest drop down around $4-5 per share. If the NAV is really between $1 and $2.50 a share then existing shareholders actually benefitted.

    While I have not talked to management yet, I do think they are an excellent operator. Their pools produce above market spot rates among other things.
    Dec 31 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers Ltd. - An Alternative Analysis [View article]
    I whole heartedly agree with you. I strongly suspect the shipping sector with react like the home builders; a fast significant rally prior to it being obvious that things are turning around. I believe that there is not any immediate meaningful substitute for oil and that emerging economies, China, will pick up their energy consumption rates that will offset any decline from developed countries. The problem is knowing when to jump in and doing it with a margin of safety.

    My point on TNK is that there is potential further bad news here as 7 of their 15 time chartered ships come off charter in '13. They may be able to renew them but I strongly believe that will be done at lower rates. The Matterhorn was recently renewed at $18k vs $21. And, if some or all drop into the spot pools, then rates will be even lower. Only 8 of 28 ships will be on TC. If that happens the company will start looking a lot more like NAT that is 100% spot except it will have more leverage. Therefore, the market could easily revalue the shares closer to NAV. I will address NAV calc below.

    Thanks so much for your thoughtful comment. Let me know what companies you like in the shipping industry.
    Dec 31 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Teekay Is Overvalued And Its Dividend Is Not Safe [View article]
    I have been looking at domestic oil and gas for a while and have several big picture questions on traditional well production vs fracked wells. I am trying to understand what will make nat gas prices will go up. I would like to pick your brain off line if you have time. Thanks
    skipolinger@comcast.net
    Sep 17 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Teekay Is Overvalued And Its Dividend Is Not Safe [View article]
    I am amazed at all the well reasoned comments here. Unusual for SA. Very good job. Don't have anything to add. This appears to be a case of a jamming numbers into a model where the analyst does not understand the what is really going on in the financials let alone the underlying business.
    Sep 11 07:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Teekay Is Overvalued And Its Dividend Is Not Safe [View article]
    excellent point, thank you
    Sep 11 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Teekay Is Overvalued And Its Dividend Is Not Safe [View article]
    I think the common thread is Bermuda's tax laws applied to an asset that is operated world wide
    Did not know Fredericksen had anything to do with the TK companies.
    Sep 11 07:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Record Low Rates Aren't Working [View article]
    1. my comment on taking umbrage to hunting dog's was a joke
    2. thanks for the wonderful explanation of the analogy. Great story!
    3. sorry for my failed attempt to to suggest that Bernanke should be kept in kennel, not the hunting dog.
    I share your concerns about the overleveraging of world and fear that it may not end very well. The consequences of increased rates on country's annual budgets is significant and very bad.
    Thanks, all the best, Skip
    Aug 1 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Record Low Rates Aren't Working [View article]
    I take umbrage to your analogy to hunting dog's. I know many hunting dogs that provide love and affection after hunting season and that is not a useless contribution. If, however, you meant Mr. Bernanke should be kenneled after this unprecedented monetary expansion, I concur.

    Back to RE. The cure for low prices is low prices. Note that Colony Financial, a mREIT, is saying they will spend $1B on SFH's and rent them. Many consider SFH one of the best valued asset classes available now. Prices in San Francisco have recovered substantially. Same with the wine country. No bargains around here.
    Jul 31 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This 13.8%-Yielder Could Soar Within Days [View article]
    I appreciate your optimism but I think that is a conservative estimate of the duration of Europe's troubles. China's issues may take longer to play out as well.

    Much prefer TGP, they have LT 10-20 year contracts on LNG tankers. Good management.
    Thanks for the reply
    Jun 19 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This 13.8%-Yielder Could Soar Within Days [View article]
    While just about everything these days is tied to the Greek election today, I don't think much of the revenue of Navios is dependent upon Greece.

    I have been reading a lot about the potential down turn in China. If it becomes a big one, dry bulk commodity shipping and rates will go down. I haven't looked recently but I think they have several contracts expiring in the next 2-3 years. Renewals will certainly be at the low end of the spectrum. That is not good for the company or the dividend.

    I still hold my small position which is at a loss. As I write it seems that the downside risk is greater than the upside so it would appear to be a bad asymmetric bet.
    Jun 17 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vodafone's 7.4% Dividend Yield Trumps Verizon And AT&T [View article]
    Great point, many european companies pay out uneven dividends twice a year, as does VOD. You can't double last half's dividend to get a true yield.

    To me VOD is a way to play Verizon wireless at a cheap price. VZ without VZW has decreasing cash flow as its POTS business declines. It has been taking cash out of VZW by repaying the debt it gave to the company when it acquired 55% of it along with VOD. That debt has almost been repaid so the cash flow to VZ will go down significantly. The only way for VZ to get cash from VZW is through a dividend. If they pay themselves, they have to pay VOD. Hence the special dividend last year. You may or may not see more special dividends from VOD. VZ wants to buy out VOD's 45% interest. Now that VZ needs dividend income from VZW, VOD's cf will increase and they have less compunction to sell. To me, VOD is worth holding for a while. You get a good yield 5%+ and you have an option on the sale of their 45% interest in VZW
    Jun 1 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This 13.8%-Yielder Could Soar Within Days [View article]
    I have a small position in this stock and agonize over it regularly. I own it for the reasons you state - intermediate term time charters at higher than spot rates. However, as joecun361 pointed out above, dry bulk shipping is in terrible shape. Slower growth in China is curtailing demand and there is an over supply of new builds. That = a disaster for future rates. As the current charters expire, new rates will more than likely go down if demand does not improve. Shipping is a notoriously volatile industry where many people have lost money. Note that many of the charters are guaranteed by the Greek government. That ain't worth much today. Therefore you also have to worry about the credit of the shipping companies that charter their ships. Remember, their customer's fortunes are also tied to the dry bulk market and their freight rates are way down.

    I have hung in for the yield and the eventual turn around in dry bulk rates. But, if they stay low for an extended period the company could be in trouble. I may sell if it gets closer to $15-16. I also own teekay LNG. Their ships have 10-20 year charters with big oil companies. A little less yield but maybe a safer play.
    Thanks
    May 30 07:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: What Is Going On (The Finale) [View article]
    Actually thought you made some good points.
    Mar 29 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: What Is Going On (The Finale) [View article]
    What is it with you about your Puts witch hunt???
    Do you really think anyone reading SA has the ability to move a $15B market cap company??? In the opening paragraph of your article you talk about "coming under critical fire from a few professionals who questioned my opinions with a pointed attack on my content " It appears that anyone who disagrees with you is attacking you and must be a short seller. Apparently, you are incapable of accepting criticism and carrying on an intelligent discussion.

    Look, I commented on this article because I thought that it did not address the fundamentals or risks of NLY or mREITS. Since many commenters apparently held the stock but did not seem to understand the risks, I tried and apparently failed to point them out. I too am attracted to the dividend but feel the risks at this time a high so I don't own the stock. AND FOR THE RECORD, I DO NOT OWN PUTS NOR HAVE I SOLD CALLS NOR HAVE I EVER OWNED AN OPTION ON THIS STOCK.

    I will make one more comment about the fundamentals. In fact, I missed a key point about about the payment rate. In a rising interest rate environment, people will not be likely to prepay or refinance their mortgages, so the duration of the mortgage security investments will extend, further hurting the spread.

    A parting thought for all, the author makes the comment that NLY has always made money going back to '98. From Dec '04 to Dec '05, looks to me like the dividend dropped from $.50 to $.10, that's 80%. The stock price went from $20 in Dec 04 to $10.50 in Dec '05. (source: Yahoo Finance) This is not a risk free stock. While it is making a spread now and may for months, years forward, interest rates will go up at some point and the company will be swimming against the tide. Interest rates are difficult to forecast, even for a know-it-all like me.

    One thing I do know for certain, after all I am a know-it-all, is that I will never read or comment on another article of yours. This has been a waste of my time. So go ahead and call me names and enjoy yourself. That is always a great tact to take when you can't say anything intelligent.
    Peace Out.
    Mar 29 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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