An Investment Strategy for Stocks, Bonds and the U.S. Dollar [View article]
Plan B Economics, I simply think that equities such as those I listed represent a more attractive investment than bonds. I wouldn't go as far as to forecast a secular bull market - obviously it wouldn't hurt, but it's not part of the thesis.
The Problem With Investing in Hedge Funds [View article]
The same piece that referred to Rick Sopher in the FT pointed out that investors in aggregate haven't done very well. On a $ weighted basis there's research to show that hedge fund investors as a group have earned approximately the risk free rate. The managers Rick highlighted are amongst those that have done a good job. Far more have failed to.
The Quiet Bear Market in Municipal Bonds [View article]
I think that's true to a degree, clearly higher tax rates would favor munis. However, the current premium to NAV of many closed end funds makes little sense.
arthur_bishop1972, I think you're perhaps confusing nominal with real GDP. 1.5% inflation and 1.5% real GDP growth (i.e. 3% nominal GDP) would be regarded by most as pretty anemic.
Why Some Hedge Funds Appear to Be Fudging Valuations [View article]
Rick Sopher's research highlights the difference between inception to date returns versus IRR, and the fact that the average $ invested in hedge funds has done significantly worse than conventionally reported industry returns would suggest.
Increase in Muni Bond CEF Dividends [View article]
George, we've wondered if part of the strength is driven by 2011 tax planning? Presumably higher marginal rates should help all tax-advantaged investments. Having said that, we've owned a portfolio of muni CEFs for most of the year but with average discounts where they are as you point out we've been exiting and now only own a couple (NIO, NQM). I don't think they're good value - NAV premium, interest rates are drifting higher and the looming credit risk make the returns too low for the risk.
Why Some Hedge Funds Appear to Be Fudging Valuations [View article]
That's an interesting piece. I has always thought fixed income strategies were more susceptible to misvaluation since other than treasuries and highly liquid issues there's more room for judgment. Research has been done illustrating that convertible arbitrage funds have higher negative serial correlation than the underlying securities, indicating some P&L smoothing.
The FT ran an interesting piece highlighting that most of the profits earned by hedge fund investors have been generated by a few managers, and points to the large difference between IRR-based calculations versus inception-to-date (which I also wrote about a couple of months back).
For Natural Gas, Range Resources Offers Margin of Safety [View article]
Thank you all for your comments. Alan Brochstein, I'll have to check my notes but I think we passed on CRK simply because we were looking for pure gas plays. I think RRC trades at a higher P/TBV because almost all of its reserves are unproven and so of course not yet carried on their BS.
Jarco, the catalyst is of course not apparent. I imagine if it was prices the opportunity would look quite different, but we may also be in for a long wait before things turn. We've mitigated that through the names we've selected as much as possible, but could be early (or very early).
Davidbc, APL is an MLP so quite a different business model, Great sector though, I have a separate personal portfolio of MLPs and have spent quite a but of time researching them. I seeded Alerian's offshore hedge fund several years ago. We don't manage MLP portfolios for clients though.
Best regards to everybody and thanks again for your thoughtful comments.
Homeowners’ Rebellion: Could 62 Million Homes Be Foreclosure-Proof? [View article]
Ellen that is a very thoughtful article. But what do you think of the scenario where the break in the title trail becomes so pervasive that it starts to have a meaningful impact on the financial sector? Wouldn't you expect the Federal govt to step in and pass legislation or come up with some other mechanism to restore the link between homeowner and mortgage holder?
An Investment Strategy for Stocks, Bonds and the U.S. Dollar [View article]
Some Outstanding Picks for Value Investors [View article]
3 Reasons to Like Natural Gas Companies [View article]
The Problem With Investing in Hedge Funds [View article]
The Quiet Bear Market in Municipal Bonds [View article]
The Case for Equities [View article]
Increase in Muni Bond CEF Dividends [View article]
Why Some Hedge Funds Appear to Be Fudging Valuations [View article]
Increase in Muni Bond CEF Dividends [View article]
Why Some Hedge Funds Appear to Be Fudging Valuations [View article]
The FT ran an interesting piece highlighting that most of the profits earned by hedge fund investors have been generated by a few managers, and points to the large difference between IRR-based calculations versus inception-to-date (which I also wrote about a couple of months back).
FT article (subscription needed): www.ft.com/cms/s/0/981...
My article on Seeking Alpha:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Why Greece Won't Turn Itself Around [View article]
For Natural Gas, Range Resources Offers Margin of Safety [View article]
Jarco, the catalyst is of course not apparent. I imagine if it was prices the opportunity would look quite different, but we may also be in for a long wait before things turn. We've mitigated that through the names we've selected as much as possible, but could be early (or very early).
Davidbc, APL is an MLP so quite a different business model, Great sector though, I have a separate personal portfolio of MLPs and have spent quite a but of time researching them. I seeded Alerian's offshore hedge fund several years ago. We don't manage MLP portfolios for clients though.
Best regards to everybody and thanks again for your thoughtful comments.
Can Silver Break $20 in September? [View article]
Homeowners’ Rebellion: Could 62 Million Homes Be Foreclosure-Proof? [View article]
Stocks Make Bonds Look Expensive [View article]