Smart Guy Stocks

Smart Guy Stocks
Contributor since: 2007
Cheers to those who were not scammed ...
How many employees at LEH, AIG, WM, and WB will be on the spending sprees like years past: zero. That, my friend, will affect the economy ...
As predicted three months ago:
July 30, 2008 - Bloomberg: Nintendo plunged 8.7 percent to 52,600 yen, the most since Jan. 28 and the biggest drag on the MSCI Asian gauge. The world's largest handheld game player maker said first-quarter operating profit rose 32 percent to 119.2 billion yen ($1.1 billion) and maintained its full-year profit forecast.
There was ``some expectation'' that the company would raise its full-year earnings projections, said Jay Defibaugh, a Tokyo- based analyst at Credit Suisse Group, in a report yesterday. ``We view 1Q results as in line to modestly disappointing.''
Bad timing Tom:
How would Ben Graham have analyzed MER after their earnings call and before this sandbag. Seriously, you have no idea what you're talking about ...
We made this pick months ago on our website, for the same reasons. The stock quickly ran up to 26 and has now come down substantially with the general market, despite great earnings by both VMWare and EMC. With Microsoft putting up great numbers last week, the tech market remains strong. EMC should be a great long term play...
Motley Fool is out with a buy call on BBBY, noting in so many words that the stock is now "too cheap."
This is not compelling logic in a nervous market for a stock that has falling sales, earnings, and resides in one of the most out-of-favor industries. This is akin to an article in the recent business week of an analyst recommending WB at 40 because it is "so cheap." Needless to say, that thesis didn't quite work- the stock is now testing 34.50.
"Too cheap" alone only works in a bull market. In a market such as this, you need another catalyst....
Care to retract your comment, Realestatebear?
Youre wrong about liquidity- right now that option is trading at a 13.30/13.40 bid ask.
There has been a lot of debate on various message boards about how to accurately value AMSWA. A lot of the debate is whether to separate LGTY’s ~36M cash position out of AMSWA’s ~76M cash hoard. Although I’m no CPA, I believe that the I was incorrect in my initial calculation, and that LGTY’s cash should be broken out as it is already captured in LGTY’s valuation. Given that, I figure that AMSWA is worth 166M (88% of LGTY) + 40M (cash) = 206M + the value of the company. Last year, AMSWA’s own operations earned 3.2M in net income. Given that the business isn’t growing much, assigning a 12.5 PE seems appropriate, resulting in another 40M. That gives a total of 246M - AMSWA closed at 233M today.
But that doesn’t capture the full value, as AMSWA generates a ton of cash and pays out a hefty dividend. From a discounted cash flow perspective, if you assume that AMSWA (without LGTY) produces the same 7M in cash flow that it generated in 2007 into perpetuity, with a 10% discount rate, the present value is 70M, bringing the total fair value to 276M.
No matter how you dice it, AMSWA is undervalued at this point.
That's pretty optimistic math. Last year, LULU generated $7.7 million in profit on $148M in sales, for a 5.2% net margin. Your numbers would require a 16% net margin, not to mention the opening of 100x as many stores as they currently have. How are they going to achieve that margin, given that they are already selling clothes at sky-high prices? And your ridiculously optimistic scenario nets only an 18% annual return - I think there are some better options out there for my money.