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Smead Capital Management

 
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  • There's No Place Like Home
    Thu, Aug. 14 BAC, CAB, NVR 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. political and economic system has been cleansed.
    • Household balance sheets are better than they've been in 30 years.
    • Things outside the border are scary.
  • Would John Templeton See Light At The End Of Aflac's Tunnel?
    Wed, Aug. 6 AFL 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Sir John Templeton said, "If you wait to see the light at the end of the tunnel, you have already missed the bottom."
    • Aflac has no light in sight.
    • We find Aflac has been a long-term wealth creator and remains out of favor.
  • U.S. Stock Market On The 'Edge Of Tomorrow'
    Tue, Jul. 22 SPY, QQQ, DIA 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Markets tend to reset.
    • Resetting can be difficult for the long-duration common stock investor.
    • Market timing requires one to live on the "edge of tomorrow."
  • Your Portfolio's Enemies
    Wed, Jul. 16 PM, GCI, CAB 9 Comments

    Summary

    • There are many enemies to a portfolio.
    • Excitement, Expenses, Market Timing, Fear, and Greed can harm a portfolio.
    • We will unpack these enemies.
  • Forget 2008 While Avoiding Popularity
    Fri, Jul. 11 BAC, JPM, SPY 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Long-duration common stock owners should be much more concerned about what they own rather than whether to own.
    • Anecdotal evidence of popularity can serve as a guide for what not to own.
    • Bank of America and JPMorgan are the new Philip Morris.
  • The Over-Capitalization Curse
    Tue, Jun. 24 IWM, SPY, IWB 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Be wary of over-capitalized areas.
    • Private equity appears to be over-capitalized.
    • Private equity allocations might have led to misallocation in common stock investing.
  • I Love Technology, But I Love LaFawnduh More
    Tue, Jun. 17 AMZN, FB, LNKD 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Too many people love tech.
    • Not enough people love free cash flow.
    • "Competition is the enemy of competence".
  • The Orphaned Bull Market
    Tue, Jun. 10 DIA, SPY, QQQ 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Equities appear abandoned and unloved.
    • The rise of alternatives and bonds have crowded out equities.
    • We think the long-duration equity holders will be rewarded.
  • The Investor Screwtape Letters
    Tue, Jun. 3 DIA, SPY, QQQ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Don't time the market.
    • Don't be too active.
    • Don't bet on every horse in the race.
  • Throwing Babies Out With Bathwater
    Wed, May. 21 EBAY, AMGN, GCI 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors are throwing the babies out with the bathwater.
    • Wealth is created by the ownership of wonderful companies over a long duration.
    • The will to reduce risk and volatility damages long-duration wealth creation.
  • Our Efficient Market Theory
    Wed, May. 14 DIA, SPY, QQQ 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Over-thinking the market can decrease wealth.
    • Fama-French's new model supports long-duration common stock investing.
    • The best businesses generate a great deal of free-cash-flow and don't require much capital to perpetuate future success.
  • The 5 Commandments Of Warren Buffett And Charlie Munger
    Tue, May. 6 BRK.A, BRK.B 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Thou Shalt Not Envy.
    • Thou Shall Hire Great People and Over-trust Them.
    • Thou Shall View Competition as the Enemy of Competence.
  • Strong Insider Ownership: Do As I Do, Not As I Say
    Wed, Apr. 30 2 Comments

    Summary

    • We prefer to watch what insiders do, not listen to what they say.
    • Recent studies show benefits from owning firms with recent inside ownership.
    • We like to be side by side with owners who have been made wealthy by their businesses and believe in the future wealth creating ability of their respective companies.
  • A Strong Balance Sheet
    Wed, Apr. 23 DIS, SBUX, JNJ Comment!

    Summary

    • Strong balance sheets allow great companies to seize business.
    • Companies with low leverage (debt) in the S&P 500 index outperformed those with average debt levels by 1% per year.
    • Long-run survival is a key element in high current intrinsic value, and strong balance sheets are a key factor in creating longevity.
  • Every Portfolio Has Faith
    Wed, Apr. 16 PRF, VV, SCHX 3 Comments

    Summary

    • We believe your investments reveal where you put your faith in the future.
    • We assume that US large-cap stocks will offer some of the highest returns among liquid asset classes.
    • To own businesses for a long time, you need a high-quality set of companies.
  • Amgen: Management's History Of Shareholder Friendliness
    Tue, Apr. 8 AMGN 3 Comments

    Summary

    • We like companies with strong shareholder friendliness.
    • Shareholder friendliness includes: dividends, buybacks, free cash flow, long-term vision, and inside ownership.
    • Amgen is great of example of a shareholder friendly company.
  • Available At A Low Price In Relation To Intrinsic Value
    Tue, Apr. 1 AFL, BEN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Cheap stocks outperform more expensive stocks.
    • Cheapness is a gift that keeps on giving.
    • Intrinsic value is a good measure of cheapness.
  • Hangman: The ETF Revolution
    Tue, Mar. 25 SPY, SH, SSO 6 Comments

    Summary

    • We believe there is a false reality around ETF investing.
    • Trading ETFs is like rubbing soap.
    • ETFs and mutual funds have similar problems.
  • High And Sustainable Profitability
    Wed, Mar. 12 ACN, BEN, HRB 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We believe long histories of profitability are crucial to selecting meritorious stocks.
    • Picking stocks can be like athletes finding the fountain of youth.
    • High and sustainable profit margins add alpha over long-term stretches.
  • Our Thoughts On Warren Buffett's Thoughts
    Tue, Mar. 4 WFC, BAC, BRK.A 17 Comments
  • Harvard's Endowment: Wise Or Foolish?
    Thu, Feb. 13 SPY, DIA, QQQ 7 Comments
  • Emerging Market Misery And U.S. Large-Cap Euphoria
    Thu, Feb. 6 EEM, VWO, FXI 7 Comments
  • Dreman And Lorde: We Will Never Be Royals
    Thu, Jan. 23 SPY, SH, SSO 3 Comments
  • 2014: Once More For '84
    Thu, Jan. 16 EWRS, IWM, RWM 2 Comments
  • David (Active Management) Vs. Goliath (Passive Indexes)
    Wed, Jan. 8 SPY, DIA, QQQ 6 Comments
  • The Enduring Nature Of 'Saving Mr. Banks'
    Wed, Jan. 1 DIS 9 Comments
  • The Milken Rule And Wide/Sustainable Moats
    Dec. 20, 2013 KO, PEP, MCD 19 Comments
  • Macro Factors Distract Wealth Creation
    Dec. 11, 2013 AMGN, BAC, CAB 2 Comments
  • High Quality And Time-Horizon Arbitrage
    Dec. 4, 2013 BRK.A, BRK.B 3 Comments
  • U.S. Stocks For A Baby Boom
    Nov. 22, 2013 BAC, SPY, EBAY Comment!
  • Dream To Outperform The Market
    Nov. 13, 2013 SPY, QQQ, SH 5 Comments
  • Even Economists Get Stuck Looking In The Rearview Mirror
    Nov. 6, 2013 EBAY, GCI, JPM 14 Comments