Smith On Stocks

Long only
Smith On Stocks
Long only
Contributor since: 2011
The manipulation of stocks (especially biotechnology) on the upside and downside is an everyday event. Shrkeli who began his career as an intern at Jim Cramer's hedge fund is not an outlier in the hedge fund industry. In fact, he may be the norm. Had not Shrkeli committed fraud at his hedge fund and Retrophin (the basis for the criminal charges) he would likely have gotten away with the KaloBios scam as other hedge fund managers routinely do. For more background on Shrkeli see
Seeking Alpha has adopted a policy of allowing acknowledged short sellers writing under pseudonyms to write numerous attack articles on Northwest and many other companies. These articles (like the Phase 5 article) accuse these companies of criminal activity and securities fraud. Correct me if I am wrong, but under our system of laws isn’t it the case that the accused is entitled to know the accuser. I believe that the Seeking Alpha policy allowing short seller authors anonymity violates the most basic standards of good journalism and indeed the law itself. I strongly recommend that Seeking Alpha require all authors to write under their actual name and reveal their affiliation.
I am not challenging this author with this comment. He seems to be expressing his own well thought out views and doesn’t seem to be using a pseudonym. However, he is relying on the Phase 5 report which is an attack article by a short seller that is hiding its identity. There is reason to believe that Phase 5 is fomenting for its short position which is a violation of securities law.
I echo Mr. Harrington's comment that you should give some reason as to why you believe that Merck might be interested in acquiring RYLP. Did you come to this view due to a vision or did you hear it from someone else? If the latter, who was it and what are their credentials. Just making a blanket statement like this has no information value and smacks of fomenting. Care to respond?
Here were my thoughts prior on KBIO and Shkreli prior to his arrest.
This was a scam from the get go. KBIO will inevitably go bankrupt.
I will listen, but I seldom publish on Seeking Alpha. My comments if any will be on my website
I readily admit that I don't understand it, but your explanation is not believable. I think we are seeing the effect of high frequency trading in dark pools.
Help me to understand how the trading volume in the last five trading days has been 38.5 million shares.
Phase 2b results on a 250 patient, randomized trial will complete enrollment in mid-2016 and report topline results in 4Q, 2016.
We are all trying to figure out who Five Phase is. A subscriber to my website sent me the following comment on the authors of this Seeking Alpha article.
Phase V doesn't want to reveal their identity
If you look up their website registration you see...
Registry Domain ID: 1874592735_DOMAIN_COM-... Registrar WHOIS Server: Registrar URL: Update Date: 2015-09-08T18:21:23Z Creation Date: 2014-09-07T08:37:54Z Registrar Registration Expiration Date: 2017-09-07T08:37:54Z
Registrar:, LLC
Registrar IANA ID: 146
Registrar Abuse Contact Email: Registrar Abuse Contact Phone: +1.4806242505 Domain Status: ok Registry Registrant ID:
Registrant Name: Registration Private
Registrant Organization: Domains By Proxy, LLC Registrant Street: Registrant Street: 14747 N Northsight Blvd Suite 111, PMB 309 Registrant City: Scottsdale Registrant State/Province: Arizona Registrant Postal Code: 85260 Registrant Country: United States
They have gone to great lengths to hide who they are in fear that they would get sued for spreading misinformation.
There is one inherent contradiction that runs through all the short attacks on NWBO in the approximate eleven such articles published on Seeking Alpha over the last two years or so. Except for one, all were written by anonymous short sellers. They make two essential points. The first is that the science behind DCVax-L and DCVax Direct is flawed and there is no chance that the products will be effective. I would remind people that this technology is based on the role of the dendritic cell in activating the active and innate immune system. This won their discoverers the Nobel Prize in 2011. Secondly, there has already been one product approved that uses dendritic cell vaccine technology. That was Provenge which was approved on the basis of a 4.5 month improvement in median overall survival in metastatic colon cancer (4.5 months is considered by key opinion leaders to be a significant advance). To me, this suggests that dendritic cell cancer vaccines like DCVax-L and DCVax Direct are based on solid science. I for one feel that cancer vaccines could be a major advance in the treatment of cancer and dendritic cell cancer vaccines are an extremely logical approach.
The next point that the short selling articles make is that Linda Powers has a major stake in Cognate and Northwest; Cognate is the manufacturer of DCVax-L and DCVax Direct. Northwest in large part because of constant short selling and coordinated attack articles like this has been cash starved. If Cognate had demanded cash for manufacturing these products, NWBO would have been unable to continue the trials. Cognate instead has accepted over 20 million shares of NWBO for its services. The shorts on the one hand tell us that this stock is worthless and then say that this is transferring wealth away for NAWBO shareholders. There is no question that the DCVax-L phase 3 trial would have been suspended and the DCVax Direct trial would never have taken place without Cognate accepting stock in lieu of cash. I think that all NWBO shareholders should thank Cognate for its role in keeping the trials going. If the shorts are correct, Cognate has accepted worthless stock of NWBO in lieu of $80 million or more of cash. Hmmmm.
This is an article like almost all the other negative Seeking Alpha articles is written by anonymous authors who are short the stock. This article alleges criminal misconduct on the part of NWBO management. This is an extremely serious charge and I believe that we entitled to know who the authors are. It is also troubling that they are short before the article was published. This is consistent with stock manipulation. I think that Seeking Alpha should demans that all authors publish under their real names. The information in this article has large components taken from previous Seeking Alpha articles. At its heart there is nothing new. For those of you who are perplexed by this unrelenting attack on Northwest Biotherapeutics, I suggest that you look at three links. . and and
I found it a bit strange that Seeking Alpha wrote this referenced article on Genervon, a small private company, as their articles almost exclusively deal with publicly traded companies. It was also surprising that this article was written by a Seeking Alpha editor, not an external contributing author. The article appeared coincident with significant shorting of Neuralstem.
I think that the word spin is pejorative and inappropriate in this case. Spin suggests that the data is presented in a way that makes the data appear better than it actually is. The lead presenter Eva Feldman. She is a distingusihed ALS researcher and past president of the American Neurological Association. What reason do you have for suggesting that she is spinning results? You have also just reprinted the press release without any analysis of the information. For an analysis of the information in this press release, please see this report.
The naked shorting campaign against NWBO was a criminal enterprise. Check this link.
There are 10 million acknowledge shorts by NASDAQ, but there may be 10 to 40 million naked shorts.
You are looking in the rear view mirror. BMY's leadership position in immuno-oncology will produce exceptional growth over the next five years. Opdivo alone might reach $5 billion in 2020 with Eliquis not far behind. This is off of a comparatively small pharmaceutical revenue base of $12 billion in 2014. Acuisitions and internally developed or licensed new products could also produce very significant revenues. This is my top pick among the big biopharm companies for the 2015 to 2020 timeframe.
I am writing a report that will be published on my website withing two weeks. The stock is down in anticipation of an equity offering. Your assessment is the same as mine.
The data on the phase 2 a trial must be viewed in the context that it was a single dose trial whose primary goal was to determine if the Aerosurf can be safely delivered as a single dose. The answer is yes and that is a positive. There were signals of efficacy based on lowering of FiO2 and CO2 in the twelve hours after administration. These need to be conformed in phase 2b. Based on this data, the results were quite encouraging. The stock is getting creamed in anticipation of an offering.
I really don't think that the FDA reads Feuerstein's blogs and takes them into consideration in their regulatory decisions.
This is eloquently written and we are in alignment in our thinking.
This is a good point in contrast to your previous comments. None of us know the answer to this question. However, natural dendritic cells seem to have somehow g figured it out.
This makes no sense. Could you rephrase? What comparison are you referring to?
Do you believe that proton pump inhibitors, H2 antagonists, ARBS, statins etc which have recorded multli-billion dollars of sales and are quite safe are ineffective. I think you are getting in over your head.
I think that if you read the article I go over the mechanism of action for Tvec and anyone who understands dendritic cell vaccines would not draw the conclusion that I think the products have similar mechanisms of action nor manufactruing process. In fact, one is autologous cell manufatruing and the other isn't. The commonality is that they are trying to induce a systemic immune response. The panel appears to appreciate that this makes cancer vacines a promising new approach in immuno-oncology.
From a clinical standpoint, I make two primary points. The first is that the panel did not insist on OS as being the basis for approval. This is important for DCVax-L as the primary endpoint is PFS with OS as a secondary endpoint. Importantly, Tvec showed a strong trend on OS with a 4.4 month improvement over the GM-CSF control arm, but missed statistical significance at p=0.051. I also feel that PFS is a very important endpoint in glioblastoma because of the close correlation with OS.
There are other points that I also make in the article which I won't go over. However, I will take this as a learning moment as you explain why these observations are jokes.
One of my subscribers said that NWBO is now Woodford's 25th largest position in a $5 billion portfolio. He Certainly has $65 million invested from the two equity deals plus open market purchases that bring his investment to well over $80 million. This signifies enormous conviction on the part of someone who has done an enormous amount of due diligence or it is an act of lunacy. One would not expect lunacy from someone with his investment credentials.
This was meant for the Bohsie comment.
I agree with you. I think that manipulation of dendritic cells is the best way of bolstering an immune response against cancer. This is how the body triggers a broad based response of effector and regulatory T-cells and B-cells. It also brings the innate immune system into play. This just makes more sense to me as a layman than focusing on just one component of the active or innate immune response.
They were patients who were candidates for the phase 3 trial. However, their cancer progressed making them ineligible before they could be entered in the trial. They were then entered into a compassionate use arm and treated in the same way as if they were enrolled. The difference is that they will not be included in the final statistical analysis.
Autologous cell manufacturing is a very different endeavor than manufacturing small molecules or monoclonal antibodies. It requires dedicated facilities and logistical infrastructure that is very different and very expensive.
The two continent manufacturing capability will pay massive dividends to shareholders if DCVax-L is approved.
My thoughts are similar to yours.
Topline data is by definition an overview of the trial and not a complete analysis. The reason is that the preparation of a paper on an important clinical trial is extremely important to the investigators in enhancing their reputations and advancing their careers. These paper are usually presented at a major medical conference and then published in a peer reviewed journal, If the full data set is presented before a conference it will be rejected. As much as Neuralstem might want to release more data or perhaps some explanation of what went on in the non-responders, it must remain silent. I have a good professional relationship-analyst to company management- with CEO Richard Garr. He has not returned my calls since this data was published.