Soham Das

India: The Next Subprime Crisis?

"The problem is the bankers. We know all too well what happens when bankers smell easy profits from exploiting the financially illiterate."

Exploiting the Financial Illiterate???

Exploiting?
Profit is good, monsieur.

Financial Illiterate.
They might be academically illiterate, but not quite financially. A recent research paper, has shown that marginalised folks in EM have much better personal finance habits than even the blessed in Western Hemisphere.
All said and done, crisis comes time and again, but not the same one!

Tata Nano About to Give Detroit a Run for Its Money

Hi Ron,

I am a simple man. A simple trader to be exact. I don't understand much fundamental geekery. Speak can't much no Anglesias too.
I just wanna ask you one thing: A very simple thing.

How did you come across the magic figure of $8? How?
Its neither a previous support, nor a previous resistance. No trendlines as well.
IMO, $9.5 is the price you should be looking at. But then smart money already bought when it crossed $5.75

What Moving Averages Indicate for Emerging and Developed Markets

BSE has already rejected the 200 DMA levels and on high volumes. This is not to say though there will be no retests on low volumes

The Rally Is at a Crossroads

Absolute gem of an analysis!
Technical Analysis works and when coupled with understanding of the macroeconomics can prove to be a force to reckon with.
Naturally, Chris has everything on his side.

2009: What to Expect - And What Not to Expect

I guess, time is validating me nicely.[which doesn't serve much except ego smothering]

1. Obama again, I reiterate has very few resources at hand, and bailouts, TARP/CRAP/TRAP are all ways to say "Alright, let me see, if this works....oops!" [Bailouts: Check]

2.Job losses in 2008, was staggerring but nothing compared to the ones we will have in 2009. [Job Loss: check]

3. Auto Loan Default mode is already on. GM annoucing possible bankruptcy. [Loan Defaults : Check]

4. Housing Mortgage Failures [Partial check]

5. I am wondering if India will turn by '09Q3 or not.[Cross]

There are a few developments which are rolling in right now. The year is still young. And I am shorting [for disclaimers and disclosures]

Investors' Collective Fears Point to Continued Losses

Looks like a double top to me and Gods above save us, this is going to get murky. All supports are going to lie aside broken and the rapid sell off will start now. For any technical guy, this seems that double top is just now formed. Short the hell of out of the system, will be my call

Market Base: Not Necessarily Bullish

What you call as a base building, is actually called a 'consolidation pattern'. Consolidation patterns are actually windows when volatility decreases[almost flies out of the window] and the market gets ready for a big move. Along the primary trend or counter trend, either ways.

If its along the primary trend then the retribution is swift. If its counter trend, then while the upmove lasts is violent but it tends to stable out again, till the primary trend changes.

As such the crux is : prepare for a big move, either upside or downside.

China's in a Recession; The IMF Is in a Dreamworld

Check out Common Leading Indicator [OECD] reading for China..around 88.
Synonymous with Thailand's status after Asian Financial Crisis.

Satyam's Moment of Truth Is at Hand

No, Asish,no... Satyam is not a product of vehement media lynching. It has called upon this misfortune by repeated invitations. I am shaking my head, because Asish, certain views were not well researched.

For one, I have a view. A pretty biased view, the management is not good, you can still play with your money and hold it. The management is bad, [?] then stay away from it even if you the pro speculator.

Management of SAY was the most unscrupulous one, I have come across. Read about SAY-UPAID fiasco. [Google is your friend: G: Satyam sued]
Read about WORLD BANK datasnooping fiasco.

FYI, WORLD BANK indeed discovered data snooping happening from modules developed by SAY[ and you know where was it going? China]

The Maytas fiasco now to my surprise was not to save Maytas but something even sinister and shocking. It was to save SAY itself. Seems the balance sheet is blown up.

Goodbye Raju, say hello to new acquirer.

My take: SAY ripe for an INFY takeover. HCL can't because it is now cash strapped due to the recent Axon takeover. But I am hoping INFY puts some legs to its cash reserve and use it to take over SAY.

Indian Markets: Ten Moments That Will Define 2009

Trust me EquityMaster... speculators don't stop. I pray to Lord almighty thatthey don't stop. For if they do, then you will have the first line of defence in a better price discovery will be gone.

For all the backlashings, speculators have got in the recent time, due to the Oil Bubble, few attributed the demise of the Oil bubble to speculators. I am tempted to look the other way and give the speculators a clean chit[there might be a professional camaraderie hidden in that statement]

Stock Exchanges of the World

So?

Capital Markets Defy Terrorists

Interesting perspective.... but the crux of my opinion is that the general social mood defines market.

In a bear run [which in turn is an exhibition of increasingly negative social mood] companies who underperform get hammered but those who generate results outside street's expectations [positive] just stay placid. The situation just reverses in bull market.

Information will be seen from a general lens of social mood. And to say that 'this' news made the markets rally high is flawed. You might say the social interpretation of so and so news made it rally high.
And this social interpretation is decided by prevalent social mood

Capital Markets Defy Terrorists

You are making a mistake in believing that news makes or breaks a market. Run some historical check, and you will realise that if you show the charts without the time stamp to any other technical analyst, and ask if he can point out the most probable time a bad news hit the market, he will fail.

Because markets are dominated by crowd behaviour and crowd behaviour is essentially emotion driven and not logic driven, thus expecting it to rationally analyse the situation while a news hits the market is irrational in itself.
We are forgetting, markets are not efficient.

A few words delving deeper in this arena is given here:

jumpup.wordpress.com/2.../

Lock in Low Gas Prices

I guess we should take essence from the post and not really follow it blindly.The essence is we can use UGA for hedging. Or better if its an oil future.It can be modelled as a bond mathematically.

The details of investment will have to checked out.

Stocks Will Bottom Before the Economy

Hi Chris,

It is but a common knowledge that stock markets lead the economy by approximately two quarters.
While, the common socioeconomic mood will worsen (or lets say hit a bottom), investing will see higher and higher VIX . And this might be an interesting thing for long term buyers, because often higher volatility is marked by a significant bottom.

So you might say, that worsening socio economic mood is helping stock market to bottom out.[Just a perspective, its extensively used by options traders]

So the question we might be asking here is, is this the bottom?
Who knows?
Is this the time to invest?
You bet!

In what?
Frontline stocks, midcap stocks, commodities [the great commodity bull run should be starting any time now], precious metal etc.