You are very savvy for catching the disparity between the new homes sales surge in the West and pending home sales decline for the West occuring during December but the issue is that it is not so simple to draw a direct comparison between those two numbers.
The government considers a new home sale to occur at the contract signing (and taking of deposit) of a new construction single family home home while NAR considers a pending sale to be the contract signing of an existing single, condo or coop.
What these two reports are telling us is that there was a surge in the signings of new construction single family homes and a simultaneous plunge in the signings of all existing homes.
If NAR would publish numbers for just single family pending home sales it would be more interesting but I think it's safe to conclude that the governments new homes sales figure is skewed... it needs revisions and is typically highly revised.
A Policy Junkie Food Stamps Extravaganza! [View instapost]
Teresa,
Thanks for the good words and thanks for the info about China food... Yuck!... I don't want apple sauce proccessed in China.... This is the country of Johnny Appleseed for petes sake!
I shop at Whole Foods... Any China processed stuff there? I hope I'm not buying a marketing gimmick. Maybe I will have to go all locally grown.
The point of the post was not that the BEA would get to an actual "final" number for each category and overall GDP.. everyone knows that the data has always been revised many times through benchmark revisions.
The point was that the terminology switch is occurring at the same time that the BEA is becoming more flagrant with their "estimates".
Explain how they so grossely mis-"estimated" Q3 2009 residetial fixed investment... and why they are doing it again?
It's a currupt scam... they knew fixed residential investment didn't expand at a 23.4% quarter-quarter rate in Q3 2009 but they ran with that "estimate".... eventually is was revised down to 10.6% and that is likely still too high...look for it to be revised down yet again in future benchmark revisions.
Fannie Mae's 'Seriously Delinquent' Loans Begin to Decline [View article]
I agree... Unfortunetly I can't seem to find the volume of loans on thier books (or the historical trend)... they show the overall value but they don't appear to publish the counts.
I'll give them a call and see if there is some way I can't get the details...it could make a big difference in interpreting this data.
It looks like in Feb 2010 they either started to significantly expand the number of loans on the books or the foreclosure rate started to drop precipitously.
Housing Doesn't Need Any More 'Bold' Ideas [View article]
Aint,
I agree... Sorkin is a really annoying little twit and on CNBC too much... and together the three of them (Krugman, Morgenson and Sorkin) make me want to hurl as well.
Housing Doesn't Need Any More 'Bold' Ideas [View article]
Ice,
No probs... and the pic comes from the movie "The Treasure of Sierra Madre"... one of my favorite movies.. I'm a big Bogart fan though the "Stinkin' Badges" scene was stole by Alfonso Bedoya.
I agreem the govt likely toys around with the data but its as good as we are going to get.
GDP values are revised 3 times to get the "final" and then possibly 3 to 5 more times over the next 5 years in benchmark revisions... so a single quarters GDP value might not become truely "final" until 5 years from the original publish date... a lot of room for hijinx.... but still it's the best we have.
What I take away from the numbers overall is that at best we are looking at a long complicated slog similar to the limping jobs "recovery" seen post tech wreck but likely more uncertain and with a far longer resolution.
Look at the "peak" of the 2001 jobes weakness... it more or less flat lined from late 2001 all the way to mid-2003.
We should expect worse this time which would allow for more oppertunity for things dropping back into recession before there is a durable enough resolution.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover: The July Jolt [View article]
Well the JOLT data is really not a long enough series to draw any solid conclusions from but the latest data is indicating that, at least for the moment, the job market is on the mend.
Though you have to remember that even if we get to the point where we are consitently createing more jobs then we are losing, there are 8-20 million unemloyed depending on how you read it.
Pending Home Sales: May Shows a Welcome Increase [View article]
Pending Home Sales: December 2010 [View article]
You are very savvy for catching the disparity between the new homes sales surge in the West and pending home sales decline for the West occuring during December but the issue is that it is not so simple to draw a direct comparison between those two numbers.
The government considers a new home sale to occur at the contract signing (and taking of deposit) of a new construction single family home home while NAR considers a pending sale to be the contract signing of an existing single, condo or coop.
What these two reports are telling us is that there was a surge in the signings of new construction single family homes and a simultaneous plunge in the signings of all existing homes.
If NAR would publish numbers for just single family pending home sales it would be more interesting but I think it's safe to conclude that the governments new homes sales figure is skewed... it needs revisions and is typically highly revised.
Let's see where things go next month.
Recession Redux? [View article]
Weekly Jobless Report Shows Increased Initial Claims, Decreased Continued Claims [View article]
That's what the first chart is... the solid blue area plot on the first chart is Extended + EUC + Continued...
A Policy Junkie Food Stamps Extravaganza! [View instapost]
Thanks for the good words and thanks for the info about China food... Yuck!... I don't want apple sauce proccessed in China.... This is the country of Johnny Appleseed for petes sake!
I shop at Whole Foods... Any China processed stuff there? I hope I'm not buying a marketing gimmick. Maybe I will have to go all locally grown.
Bull Trip: Q2 2010 GDP Report [View article]
The point was that the terminology switch is occurring at the same time that the BEA is becoming more flagrant with their "estimates".
Explain how they so grossely mis-"estimated" Q3 2009 residetial fixed investment... and why they are doing it again?
It's a currupt scam... they knew fixed residential investment didn't expand at a 23.4% quarter-quarter rate in Q3 2009 but they ran with that "estimate".... eventually is was revised down to 10.6% and that is likely still too high...look for it to be revised down yet again in future benchmark revisions.
Fannie Mae's 'Seriously Delinquent' Loans Begin to Decline [View article]
I'll give them a call and see if there is some way I can't get the details...it could make a big difference in interpreting this data.
It looks like in Feb 2010 they either started to significantly expand the number of loans on the books or the foreclosure rate started to drop precipitously.
Housing Doesn't Need Any More 'Bold' Ideas [View article]
I agree... Sorkin is a really annoying little twit and on CNBC too much... and together the three of them (Krugman, Morgenson and Sorkin) make me want to hurl as well.
Housing Doesn't Need Any More 'Bold' Ideas [View article]
No probs... and the pic comes from the movie "The Treasure of Sierra Madre"... one of my favorite movies.. I'm a big Bogart fan though the "Stinkin' Badges" scene was stole by Alfonso Bedoya.
Household Misery Index Redux [View article]
GDP values are revised 3 times to get the "final" and then possibly 3 to 5 more times over the next 5 years in benchmark revisions... so a single quarters GDP value might not become truely "final" until 5 years from the original publish date... a lot of room for hijinx.... but still it's the best we have.
Household Misery Index Redux [View article]
Analyzing Today's Jobless Claims Report [View article]
What I take away from the numbers overall is that at best we are looking at a long complicated slog similar to the limping jobs "recovery" seen post tech wreck but likely more uncertain and with a far longer resolution.
Look at the "peak" of the 2001 jobes weakness... it more or less flat lined from late 2001 all the way to mid-2003.
We should expect worse this time which would allow for more oppertunity for things dropping back into recession before there is a durable enough resolution.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover: The July Jolt [View article]
Though you have to remember that even if we get to the point where we are consitently createing more jobs then we are losing, there are 8-20 million unemloyed depending on how you read it.
Why the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Was an Unmitigated Failure [View article]
August Joblessness Report Shows Improvement to Long-Term Unemployment, Dire Situation Overall [View article]
You are right on the birth-death nonsense... these figures get revised so many times its really a big farce but I follow anyhow.