U.S. and U.K. Real Estate: Comparing Bubbles Globally [View article]
Well, I didn't really mean "post" as in after the end of the housing crash... just post the peak of the bubble... we are now many years into the crash so we are post crash .. but not the end of the housing deflation.
Possibly mid-crash is a better term... but we agree... there is a lot of crash left to go!
December '09 Case-Shiller Housing Numbers Show Government-Sponsored Housing Rebound Is Over [View article]
Aint,
I'm glad you could get at the static charts...
As you mention the housing markets are still clearing... sounds like the hardest hit markets are still taking a hard hit... Today the new home sales series just broke through its 2009 low... I would not be surprised if now the new construction data and home price data all breaks their respective lows as well...
It's interesting how many who only marginally watch these details don't understand the effect the downturn has had on their own home.
We are getting snow-rain today... kind of nasty but at least it puts us on the path to Spring.
Inventory Restocking: Done, Or Just Starting? [View article]
Well, just-in-time inventory may make inventory/sales more efficient resulting in an inventory-sales ratio well below 1.4 (the old normal) as was seen in most of the 2000s but the fact remains that for most of 2008 and 2009 there was an inventory-sales imbalance.
Sales declined dramatically and inventory took some time to come down in order to rebalance.
So the efficiency may narrow the balance between inventory and sales but imbalances will still occur especially around recessions where demand can collapse a lot faster than inventories can adjust.
I think the key is that sales are still really depressed compared to peak levels…
Housing Continues to Recover in the U.K. [View article]
Keep in mind, I'm not suggesting that the bounce is durable... only that to date... its continuing.
This is the same pattern that is playing out across a whole spectrum of macro data... "recovery" started in earnest in the March of 2009 (respectively) but how long will this strong dynamic last?
That is... change "Player" to "GetImage", change "key" to "name" and add "_LARGE" to the end of the link and you should see the image clear as day.
Yes... I live in the Boston area and although I'm very bearish I still consider myself simply a skeptic... someday if the data really turns in a substantially better direction and the U.S. digs out from under its crushing debt load... and pigs fly... I will be bullish again!
The Market for Full-Time Workers Is Improving [View article]
Bears, please note that I don't always write the titles to these pieces and if you have read my other posts you will know that I'm sympathetic to the skeptics perspective....
The best interpretation of the latest data is is that the initial thrust of the unemployment spike may, more or less, be complete BUT... look where we are and consider how things might trend going forward.
This post was not intended to stir a sense of optimism.
Are We About to See an Unemployment Super-Spike? [View article]
User 353732,
This is SoldAtTheTop ... the blogger that wrote this post... Can you email me at: soldatthetop@gmail.com
On Jul 10 05:49 AM User 353732 wrote:
> 1. Firms do not heal well or soon when they face a continuing credit > squeeze, esp small and medium businesses which are the source of > most job creation and much innovation in the economy; distressed > and fearful customers; a relentlessly hostile business climate created > the Govt via new costs and risks; and shrinking international markets. > > 2. Firms do not invest in anticipation of demand when they lack confidence > caused by the growing disconnect between the business reality they > experience and the fabricated economic data from the Govt and the > MSM > 3. Firms substantially shorten their strategic horizon when they > fear high inflation, dollar debasement and anticipate spiking interest > rates: they focus instead on survival ,not strategic planning; on > shedding liabilities and further pruning their least productive employees > > 4. Firms that have a substantial exposure to State and Muni customers > are increasingly anxious about state and muni debt defaults, delayed > and partial payments ,and payments in worthless IOUs. Such firms > are facing and anticipate contending with major cash flow challenges: > for them cash conservation via all means is the first priority; order > backlogs from bad Govt. accounts mean nothing. > > These forces will both constrain investment and further impell layoffs > by many firms, greatly prolonging the economic compression and further > increasing unemployment. Recovery is not in sight because profits > and predictability are not in sight. No profits----no jobs; no jobs-----no > recovery. > Small and medium business understand this perfectly. Our Govt either > does not understand since the political bosses have never had to > meet a real payroll running a real business or vaguely understand > but see small and medium entrprises as obstacles to their collectivizing > and controlling agenda.
U.S. and U.K. Real Estate: Comparing Bubbles Globally [View article]
Possibly mid-crash is a better term... but we agree... there is a lot of crash left to go!
Bottomless New Home Sales [View article]
Good stuff... I think it makes a mockery of our system too when Trump is able to seriously fail twice but still succeede.
People like to think of others that habitually file bankruptcy as losers and lowlifes yet Trump is a titan of capitalism... its a real shame...
December '09 Case-Shiller Housing Numbers Show Government-Sponsored Housing Rebound Is Over [View article]
I'm glad you could get at the static charts...
As you mention the housing markets are still clearing... sounds like the hardest hit markets are still taking a hard hit... Today the new home sales series just broke through its 2009 low... I would not be surprised if now the new construction data and home price data all breaks their respective lows as well...
It's interesting how many who only marginally watch these details don't understand the effect the downturn has had on their own home.
We are getting snow-rain today... kind of nasty but at least it puts us on the path to Spring.
Inventory Restocking: Done, Or Just Starting? [View article]
Sales declined dramatically and inventory took some time to come down in order to rebalance.
So the efficiency may narrow the balance between inventory and sales but imbalances will still occur especially around recessions where demand can collapse a lot faster than inventories can adjust.
I think the key is that sales are still really depressed compared to peak levels…
Housing Continues to Recover in the U.K. [View article]
This is the same pattern that is playing out across a whole spectrum of macro data... "recovery" started in earnest in the March of 2009 (respectively) but how long will this strong dynamic last?
The Market for Full-Time Workers Is Improving [View article]
This thread might cover how to get silverlight installed on you machine:
forums.silverlight.net...
Also, if you still can't get silverlight running you can always do the following with the charts:
The link to the dynamic chart above looks as follows:
www.blytic.com/Player....
Change it to this:
www.blytic.com/GetImag...
That is... change "Player" to "GetImage", change "key" to "name" and add "_LARGE" to the end of the link and you should see the image clear as day.
Yes... I live in the Boston area and although I'm very bearish I still consider myself simply a skeptic... someday if the data really turns in a substantially better direction and the U.S. digs out from under its crushing debt load... and pigs fly... I will be bullish again!
Thanks for reading... more to come!
The Market for Full-Time Workers Is Improving [View article]
The best interpretation of the latest data is is that the initial thrust of the unemployment spike may, more or less, be complete BUT... look where we are and consider how things might trend going forward.
This post was not intended to stir a sense of optimism.
Is An Economic Recovery In Sight? [View instapost]
Sorry for trying to contact you through comments... but
Can you email me at: soldatthetop@gmail.com
Are We About to See an Unemployment Super-Spike? [View article]
This is SoldAtTheTop ... the blogger that wrote this post...
Can you email me at: soldatthetop@gmail.com
On Jul 10 05:49 AM User 353732 wrote:
> 1. Firms do not heal well or soon when they face a continuing credit
> squeeze, esp small and medium businesses which are the source of
> most job creation and much innovation in the economy; distressed
> and fearful customers; a relentlessly hostile business climate created
> the Govt via new costs and risks; and shrinking international markets.
>
> 2. Firms do not invest in anticipation of demand when they lack confidence
> caused by the growing disconnect between the business reality they
> experience and the fabricated economic data from the Govt and the
> MSM
> 3. Firms substantially shorten their strategic horizon when they
> fear high inflation, dollar debasement and anticipate spiking interest
> rates: they focus instead on survival ,not strategic planning; on
> shedding liabilities and further pruning their least productive employees
>
> 4. Firms that have a substantial exposure to State and Muni customers
> are increasingly anxious about state and muni debt defaults, delayed
> and partial payments ,and payments in worthless IOUs. Such firms
> are facing and anticipate contending with major cash flow challenges:
> for them cash conservation via all means is the first priority; order
> backlogs from bad Govt. accounts mean nothing.
>
> These forces will both constrain investment and further impell layoffs
> by many firms, greatly prolonging the economic compression and further
> increasing unemployment. Recovery is not in sight because profits
> and predictability are not in sight. No profits----no jobs; no jobs-----no
> recovery.
> Small and medium business understand this perfectly. Our Govt either
> does not understand since the political bosses have never had to
> meet a real payroll running a real business or vaguely understand
> but see small and medium entrprises as obstacles to their collectivizing
> and controlling agenda.