Seeking Alpha

Sophocles Sophocleous

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Sophocles Sophocleous' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Investing Like A Billionaire With The iBillionaire ETF [View article]
    Higher beta, stocks with higher multiples. Marginal outperformance these last 12 months. No thank you.
    Sep 9 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy Corporation: Invest In Booming North American Oil Production [View article]
    Good stuff. VLO is one of the cheapest stocks in the market, and one of the cheapest consistent dividend paying stocks.
    Sep 9 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    You'll need to look at what the ETFs investment strategy is. Most likely they have certain criteria for them to hold the stock. This criteria could result in flipping the portfolio more often than you desire.
    Sep 8 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    You will need to study the growth rates in dividend paying companies, and focus on buying stocks with 2%+ current dividend yields. eg. if the company pays 2% currently, then they would have to increase that dividend by 17.5% per year in order for it to each your 10% goal.
    Sep 8 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    TaiPan:
    Personally, I don't believe buyandhold for individual stocks will work like it used to and at best will marginally beat the market based on quality and valuation depending on the involvement and experience of the investor. Technological changes are happening a lot quicker. All industries are more competitive. People look at Coca-Cola and thinking how lucky they would be if they were invested 30 yrs ago but don't think about how many companies have failed and even gone bankrupt. Just look at the DJIA. See how the 30 members have changed over the years. Buying and forgetting individual companies won't cut it. Now if you buy and hold indices then its a different story. Amateurs are better off buying indices. Some of these like 'dividend aristocrats' etf focus on dividend stocks. My backtest of models with dividend strategy show good results and one of the models I personally use looks at companies that have paid dividends for at least 10 years and are cheap.
    The key to investing in individual companies is using a value investing strategy. A company can change in many ways but the price you pay will never change. Sometimes it is the stock with deteriorating fundamentals that you buy, but it all depends on the story. You must ask yourself, what is the strategy? eg. you buy a stock that is trading at a premium to the market. That means you are buying a growth stock/story. Is the company still growing at above average rates? If it's not then the fundamentals can remain very strong but you will lose money because the market will reprice the stock. If you are buying a stock at a discount then you are a value investor. The problem with value investing is that you can get caught buying a value trap. The stock could be cheap but it doesn't mean it won't get cheaper. It will depend on how much the fundamentals are deteriorating. For example, if sales are declining at a small pace but the company is generating significant amount of free cash flow and doesn't have much debt then more than likely, if you buy it cheap, you will make a good return. Because despite the drop is sales, the company could do buy backs, and pay dividends. The company could even be bought out by private equity firms or a competitor. On the other hand if management is horrible then it could be an issue.
    You need to understand why you hold a stock, and what are the catalysts. If I'm holding a growth stock and it stops growing above average, I'm out. If I buy a value stock and it has appreciated and price is stalling, I'm out. I'm constantly monitoring to see if something has changed. At the same time, you need to be humble. Some times we are wrong. If you are not entirely sure then you scale out of a position. If reduces your loss on the downside and guarantees profits on the upside. I could talk for hours on this subject... That is why I recommend amateurs and/or individuals who don't have the time are better off indexing and buying more on the dips.
    If you'd like to do some reading I'd recommend "quantitative strategies for achieving alpha".
    Sep 6 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    Buyandhold: I believe if you used a monthly chart to help, you could have had better entries. Take 2008, instead of at -20%, you could have added at around -30%.
    Sep 6 03:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    Sorry for the misunderstanding. I meant that everyday. Basically everyday, everyone of all time frames are bombarded with news, most of which is noise.
    Sep 6 03:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    Thank you for sharing.
    Sep 6 03:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    Thank you!
    Sep 6 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    Well done! With a few exceptions, the US market has been very consistent with few large drops.
    I'm not advocating people should use the above two charts as a system but more as a monitor to help filter all the noise we investors hear from so many different sources.
    Sep 5 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Simple Charts To Monitor The S&P 500 [View article]
    Your welcome!
    Sep 5 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Is A Meltdown Coming? [View article]
    Sold my remaining position in SPLS pre-market today at $12.60. Market gave us a good opportunity to get out. Notice how priced closed below the 200-ma after piercing it intraday. I don't expect this push up to hold.
    Sep 3 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Is A Meltdown Coming? [View article]
    Looks like a lot of us in the same boat... A good friend bailed out on my reasoning. Personally have reduced to the point where it's my small position but if this continues will just get out.
    Riding your winners and reducing and selling losers works well over the long run.
    Aug 26 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Is A Meltdown Coming? [View article]
    More underperforming stores will be closed according to management.
    Aug 25 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Is A Meltdown Coming? [View article]
    I agree. Depends on appetite. With operating profit drop over 30% year on year we could have an EBITDA of around 1270m in 2 qtrs assuming oper profit drops 30% and depreciation is 450m. Assuming a deal at 5x EV/EBITDA that comes to $6.4b which is lower than current valuation. If I'm private equity, I'd wait but like I said it depends on the appetite and the plans the new potential owner could have. He could have a better team or plan that would allow him to pay more earlier or cheaper current financing.
    Aug 25 05:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
155 Comments
51 Likes