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  • I Waited On The IPO But I'm Ready To Buy Trupanion At These Prices [View article]
    IV for $TRUP looks to be $13/share.
    Sep 15 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TeleCommunication Systems: Growth Drivers on All Fronts [View article]
    Hi Marty, You do good work. Any chance you've looked at this company lately? Seems like commercial is growing faster than government which helps the GM story and maybe earnings. They have debt but still... maybe interesting here.
    Sep 11 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Gorilla Glass Retains Its Dominance Over GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire [View article]
    Of course this is ipso post facto but it's still a good summary of parts of the "information mosaic" I think investors, particularly those speculating short term on the iPhone 6, went out of their way to overlook. I think $GTAT management was pretty clear insofar as what they said. Analysts ran amok based on what they wanted to hear and many traders went along with it.
    Sep 10 07:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Path Forward: Bull Case Vs. Base Case [View article]
    Apple needs to have a gazillion phones ready to sell in less than two weeks. We heard plenty about yield issues. Had to know that they wouldn't risk not being able to deliver due to such a part constraint. So they went with plan B on the iPhones. The high end iWatch will be smaller volumes and in 2015 so Sapphire fine for that.

    $GTAT has to prove they can ramp sapphire enough to satisfy a giant like Apple. That's hard, takes time. No reason it can't or won't happen but it requires patience.

    I think people got a little crazy with this announcement which is unfortunate.

    In terms of Matt I think he was a little too strong in his conviction and tone but sometimes you need to do that to get people to pay attention. Unless you get real inside (and illegal) inside information you just are never going to be able to be 100% sure in the short term.

    This still seems like a company worth watching and owning for long-term gains if they can commercialize and ramp these cutting edge technologies. Plenty to prove.
    Sep 10 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    I also think it is perfectly fine for people to publish articles and have positions consistent with the conclusions - research is part of the investment process after all. As long as those positions are acknowledged so it may help readers detect bias.

    I've been burned plenty of times being short companies based on numbers, DCF analysis and all that stuff. Take Zillow for example on the way up. Seeing future fundamentals and understanding sentiment and expectations are more important.

    Remember the key to happy investing - do your work and manage risk!
    Sep 9 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    I think we are in agreement. Our only difference is that based on what I have seen I believe that GLUU has a real chance to do what you believe they will not.

    Yes barriers to build and launch a game are very low. But it still very very very hard to get attention. GLUU can take a game and leverage it to make it a real success. I believe KK is an example of this but agree we need more.

    Mobile is so big, and so powerful that if GLUU gets this right the returns will be large. Yes there is risk. I see this glass half full.
    Sep 8 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    Some valid points on GLUU but also at least one very big mistake. Point 2 in your business model discussion is wrong.

    GLUU is precisely interesting because it is pursuing a strategy where they can use their position and technology as a platform. KK is a perfect example. And there have been and will be more new releases of popular games. Just look at how Deer Hunter spawned Dino Hunter for one.

    This is such an important point to not understand and misrepresent here that I am very disappointed with the authors of this note.

    I agree GLUU is risky and has plenty to prove but this note shows a lack of understanding of the company and the market there serving.

    I have been long the stock for some time but scaled my position based on the varying enthusiasm and share price. I think your points may apply to KING which is minting money but so far only from one game. I also work very hard to prevent any positions from coloring my analysis.
    Sep 8 10:09 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Mobile Payments Will Require Partnerships And NFC [View article]
    Is this why some NFC-related companies like $INVE are trading up so much into this Apple announcement? I suspect there are many more out there too.
    Sep 3 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Appears To Be On The Mend, But Investors Lack Conviction [View article]
    Good overview of the company challenges. I have noticed that there is more viable GRPN activity, at least in the Boston area with people now figuring out how to use it in ways that work economically.

    GRPN used aggressive sales techniques to drive lots of deals that shouldn't have been done and felt the massive backlash. Now it's more organic. How fast it ramps and how far it goes is hard to tell but there is plenty of market opportunity in doing promotions better.
    Sep 1 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Path Forward: Bull Case Vs. Base Case [View article]
    I've been trying to consider what could stand in the way of this stock working as an investment (and understand what the shorts see here.)

    The two primary risks I can see are that the rapid scaling up of the company is simply beyond the capabilities of the management team and they mess it up - hiring too many bad people, managers not working well together, etc. It's a common reason some very rapid growth stories fail to work out.

    The second reason would be much lower pricing as the end markets grow and mature which could invalidate future forecasts of revenue growth, margins and earnings.

    Even with some portion of these risks becoming manifest the ultimate valuation of $GTAT seems to settle somewhere in the middle of the current price range and the $87 objective the analyst has.

    As some of the old equity sales guys would say - "if this story still works if I cut your price target in half then it's a buy!"

    This seems to be one of those stories and worth being long here but prepared for some short-term disappointments.
    Aug 31 08:41 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Technology: 6-Inch Wafers, Prices, And Other Questions [View article]
    I'm looking for more long-term investments. I agree that RBCN can indeed swing based on news and potential (transitory) improvements in GM. Plus I can't really build a model on what to pay for a company that has such major swings in margins.
    Aug 31 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Technology: 6-Inch Wafers, Prices, And Other Questions [View article]
    So I took a quick look at this stock and maybe I'm missing something but they have *negative gross margins* of significant magnitude.

    Pricing can improve I'm sure but to flip such a big number the change would be huge. Then you have to consider how sustainable.

    On the plus side the balance sheet is clean and expenses are low. Just looks like a business you'd rather not be in if you don't have to.
    Aug 29 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Harris & Harris Portfolio Company D-Wave To IPO: Quantum Computing Pioneer Looks To IPO [View instapost]
    A D-Wave IPO would be fascinating. I've doubts about them being able to pull it off but if the revenue and margins are there then... let her rip.

    We wrote a research report on the company a couple years back. Really cool and controversial technology.
    Aug 25 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Not So Well Kept Secret Card [View article]
    Appreciate the discussion on batteries. That's clearly an important aspect to the story. But some of the comments here remind me that there are good parallels between Tesla and Apple to consider. Apple uses (by and large) the same raw materials that other makers like Dell do but the package ends up being far more appealing (and pricey) for consumers who like it.

    I think Tesla is on the same path - to drive new technology for their needs (as Apple did with things like Gorilla Glass) and then combine it with design, software and customer-focused experience into a product people are drawn to.

    On the car side look how well BMW, Porsche and Mercedes do in attracting buyers who are passionate about their vehicles. The components are not so special but the combination is.

    I've owned a small position in TSLA for a long time and have scaled it up and down with the volatility. I think it's risky but am happy to have some capital exposed to such a large opportunity and talented team.
    Aug 25 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryerson Holding Corp. Is All Smoke And Mirrors [View article]
    Interesting. New IPO which banker coverage could help prop up in a month or so. But then lockup agreements will come off. Seems like a very leveraged bet on the economy if you go for that sort of thing. Some do though.
    Aug 18 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment