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  • Refuting A Short-Selling Solazyme Critic [View article]
    Very good discussion on $SZYM. I do think this is a case of a company with very promising technology that is taking longer than expected to ramp up to volumes that would put profits in sight.

    We published a fairly lengthy report on the company back in May of 2011 which you can download at -

    The key point I'd raise here though is we built a model at the time that projected $350M in revenue for 2014 with a $51M operating income. As it stands today analysts project $75M in revenues for 2014 with a ($140M-ish) loss. The "hockey stick" is out there in 2015/16 based on estimates of $600M in revenue and $50M-ish of net income for 2016. Given the past this feels (still) optimistic.

    Our past work makes us think that the management team of Solazyme is high quality and taking a long-term (maybe too long-term) view of their positioning and market opportunity.

    Also one last point of clarification - the company has $285M in cash but also $200M in debt so net cash is only $85M. So I would put this company in the "risky" category despite having what I think is a very solid management team.

    I'd point to substantial negative gross margins as the primary risk. If they can't prove/demonstrate that what they do can generate substantial profit margins at scale then the financing pipeline will stop flowing and they will be looking to sell the company for IP value and some written down assets.

    At the moment I have no position the stock and not contemplating one right now.
    Oct 19 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow: Time To Run Away [View article]
    I agree with the short case on this one but have had a hard time getting the timing right and sticking with it. Google doesn't control their content either but obviously makes a good living as a middle man because people find it easier to go to one place to search for things. Doesn't seem crazy to think that will be true for real estate. I've got no dog in the hunt right now.
    Oct 19 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire Wind-Down A Game Changer For Wafer Prices, Rubicon [View article]
    When I took a quick look at $RBCN I think the gross margin was actually negative. In any case a quick look at the financials made me wonder why in the world you'd want to own shares in this business. If you have a case for sapphire prices being wildly higher in a way that can be sustained then load up. I've got no idea.
    Oct 16 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did GT Advanced Technologies Mislead Investors? [View article]
    I am not a legal expert but I would bet that the management team is going to be on the hook for some serious crime. There's no question that they "painted a picture" that was very different than what their business metrics were indicating. If a few emails surface then these guys are in some serious trouble. My 2c but that's all.
    Oct 7 11:35 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Coming Unglued ... [View article]
    Good article but I think it's a trifle one-sided. That's what makes a market. I've noticed some dropoff in KK but to me that's not unexpected. We play games and get tired and move on. I think $GLUU management gets that.

    The insider selling I think is a red flag as are more shares that may come out as acquisition lock-ups expire.

    Having said that these guys have an incredible opportunity to build a real company (like an ERTS) on the mobile platform and I tend to believe they know that. Won't happen in a quarter or even a year but I'd be shocked if they let it go.
    Oct 7 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Seadrill Subsidiary To Raise $250 Million In Equity [View article]
    Goldman downgrades $SDRL to "Sell" this morning. Guess they weren't on the deal? Or something bad is going on...
    Sep 26 06:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Metabolomics Company Calithera First In Sector To IPO [View article]
    Interesting article. $TINY remains undervalued but the market has a hard time giving them the credit they are due. It's weird that D-Wave is listed on the chart as a "biology" play. Doesn't seem right to me.
    Sep 25 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Might GT Advanced Technologies Announce On September 29, 2014? [View article]
    I'd tend to see a lowering of guidance as a good thing because it helps to reset the expectations and put a real bottom in the stock. Beats and small raises is what you want to do, not tell everyone you're going to hit a grand slam home run late in the game.

    The insider selling is a little surprising but hey, they got it right! I think investors who got caught up in the Apple surge and swoon have only themselves to blame for it. If this stock turns around and makes new highs over $20 it'll be quite a story.

    The situation reminds me a little of $FSLR back in 2012 - after the shares went from $150 to $20 they were still controversial and most people didn't believe in the turnaround and guidance. Then you saw a new base build and support growth back to $70/share. Took a couple of years though and $GTAT may still revisit lower prices before there's a long-term uptrend.
    Sep 18 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    They probably should just take this company private at this point. They can save some some money not being a public company and won't need to raise much debt to take out the market cap. Retail to me always feels high cost/low margin versus online which is still low margin but much lower cost and more variable versus fixed.
    Sep 18 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A First Look at IPass [View article]
    I don't think the future of iPass is in any way linked to iPhone 6.
    Sep 17 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Waited On The IPO But I'm Ready To Buy Trupanion At These Prices [View article]
    IV for $TRUP looks to be $13/share.
    Sep 15 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TeleCommunication Systems: Growth Drivers on All Fronts [View article]
    Hi Marty, You do good work. Any chance you've looked at this company lately? Seems like commercial is growing faster than government which helps the GM story and maybe earnings. They have debt but still... maybe interesting here.
    Sep 11 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Gorilla Glass Retains Its Dominance Over GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire [View article]
    Of course this is ipso post facto but it's still a good summary of parts of the "information mosaic" I think investors, particularly those speculating short term on the iPhone 6, went out of their way to overlook. I think $GTAT management was pretty clear insofar as what they said. Analysts ran amok based on what they wanted to hear and many traders went along with it.
    Sep 10 07:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Path Forward: Bull Case Vs. Base Case [View article]
    Apple needs to have a gazillion phones ready to sell in less than two weeks. We heard plenty about yield issues. Had to know that they wouldn't risk not being able to deliver due to such a part constraint. So they went with plan B on the iPhones. The high end iWatch will be smaller volumes and in 2015 so Sapphire fine for that.

    $GTAT has to prove they can ramp sapphire enough to satisfy a giant like Apple. That's hard, takes time. No reason it can't or won't happen but it requires patience.

    I think people got a little crazy with this announcement which is unfortunate.

    In terms of Matt I think he was a little too strong in his conviction and tone but sometimes you need to do that to get people to pay attention. Unless you get real inside (and illegal) inside information you just are never going to be able to be 100% sure in the short term.

    This still seems like a company worth watching and owning for long-term gains if they can commercialize and ramp these cutting edge technologies. Plenty to prove.
    Sep 10 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    I also think it is perfectly fine for people to publish articles and have positions consistent with the conclusions - research is part of the investment process after all. As long as those positions are acknowledged so it may help readers detect bias.

    I've been burned plenty of times being short companies based on numbers, DCF analysis and all that stuff. Take Zillow for example on the way up. Seeing future fundamentals and understanding sentiment and expectations are more important.

    Remember the key to happy investing - do your work and manage risk!
    Sep 9 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment