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  • Wayfair, Inc.: Playing Devil's Advocate To Citron's $10 Price Target [View article]
    I enjoyed the article and think it's a great approach to look at the situation from both sides. The Citron report is over the top as usual but I did some my own digging on Wayfair and was not impressed. Despite their "350 engineers" their software is riddled with bugs and customer support and satisfaction is a problem. They also don't necessarily control it since the drop shipping model puts fulfillment in the hands of distributors and perhaps worst of all - contract delivery folks.

    I even spent time talking to captive and contract delivery truck drivers and there was no disagreement that the only way to ensure reliable quality delivery was either with your own captive service or the usual suspects (UPS, FedEx) but the latter don't do so well with furniture and heavy items in terms of cost.

    Finally I'm concerned that the "target model" is questionable. IMO they can get to profitability but probably closer to 4-5% rather than 8-10%. Still not a bad business but based on all of that the shares are way overvalued.

    I have a small short position but really as a hedge. I'll keep an eye on it. Reminds me a little of ChannelAdvisor (ECOM) before it broke down. (Now ECOM may be getting it together after a minor pivot to focus on larger accounts.)

    Thanks for publishing your article!
    Nov 6, 2015. 09:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Wayfair's E-Commerce Furniture Business Take A Seat Or Take Off? [View article]
    So... analysts are bullish on Wayfair... and?
    Nov 6, 2015. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imprivata's Q3 Warning Is Not The Setback The Market Says It Is [View article]
    I understand the logic but management was greedy back in August, for that they pay back some cherished trust and credibility.

    It's not the "miss" that most bothers me but rather the commentary on the call about not really knowing what future growth looks like and not having a plan. It's been some time since the pre-announcement so this call was an opportunity for management to stand tall in adversity. Felt more like a slump... ;-)
    Nov 5, 2015. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imprivata's Q3 Warning Is Not The Setback The Market Says It Is [View article]
    It's possibly a bargain but it appears that part of the business is shrinking faster than expected and management has had to back off from their medium term growth guidance.

    The real issue is management doesn't really have a firm grasp of near and medium-term business trends. In August they were crowing about their momentum and enticing analysts to pound the table. But the truth is they couldn't see very far past the most recently reported quarter. So it's a real concern.
    Nov 4, 2015. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattersight: Buy For Earnings (Again) [View article]
    Their products fit well with the theme of increasing productivity and retaining customers.
    Nov 4, 2015. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Radcom Is Playing For Keeps In The NFV Market [View article]
    Very good article. Agree with the potential here. Do you know who is on the short list in terms of competition?
    Nov 3, 2015. 07:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ferrari Shares Scarce Now, Abundant Later [View article]
    I don't think there is any date yet and certainly no "record date." My impression was that the timing was described as "early 2016." I also think the lockup on RACE is only 90 days but I'm not sure who that would apply to.
    Oct 23, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattersight Should Be Bought Before Earnings [View article]
    No reason for the quarter not to be good. You never know though... The stock has run up into it but since the recent decline from $8 it's "safer" to some extent going into earnings. As always I'd stress that small companies and stocks like this are best thought about over the long term.
    Oct 23, 2015. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella Becoming A Takeover Target [View article]
    Agree it's a takeover target and the price, even allowing for a nice premium is not high. However why isn't it happening? When I listen to AMBA management they don't impress me. So I wonder if we are missing something and maybe their ability to innovate and stay ahead of the curve isn't that strong. Or IP protection isn't as good as it should be? I'm not that close to this one anymore and have no dog in the hunt at this point. Interesting situation though...
    Oct 9, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fluidigm's (FLDM) CEO Gajus Worthington on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Ugh, management seems to be whistling past the graveyard...
    Oct 8, 2015. 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Zix: Insurmountable Competition [View article]
    I thought these guys were more of a email directory company which provides security in a different way. Didn't ever seem them as a MDM play. Been a while though, maybe they are grasping at ways to grow and expand their market. I don't think they have executed well in the past so without major management changes it's hard to see them winning against companies like ProofPoint.
    Oct 2, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MRI Interventions' (MRIC) CEO Frank Grillo on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Put up a decent quarter in a tough market. Tried to lift but this one may just take a few quarters to find it's way back to $1.
    Oct 1, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apigee Is Set To Benefit From A Strong Secular Trend In Mobility [View article]
    Good article. I think there is much more to the APIC story than just mobile but agree that's a big driver. Valuation should probably be higher as well. Company is new so has to educate the market more about their value add. They are doing it!
    Oct 1, 2015. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitbit: Short-Term Efforts Should Follow Nike's Lead [View article]
    I thought that the smartwatch would obviate the need for a FitBit but after trying one for fitness I don't think that's true. I'd point to lousy software and limited battery life as major issues.

    Much has been said of the corporate wellness angle which I agree with. However it'll probably take the form of a special device. Firms are not likely to give everyone an Apple Watch but a FitBit is a different story.
    Sep 29, 2015. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MRI Interventions' (MRIC) CEO Frank Grillo on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    This quarter is an easier compare. Might help.
    Sep 28, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment