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  • Ryerson Holding Corp. Is All Smoke And Mirrors [View article]
    Interesting. New IPO which banker coverage could help prop up in a month or so. But then lockup agreements will come off. Seems like a very leveraged bet on the economy if you go for that sort of thing. Some do though.
    Aug 18 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor: After The Crash, Once Again Attractively Priced For Growth [View article]
    Good article and nice overall coverage of $ECOM over time. I tend to agree that management is doing the right thing by focusing on customer *value* and not customer number. It's easy to sign up large numbers of customers at low prices but if they are not going to move the real needles of revenue and margin it's a waste of time and money.

    This makes $ECOM a small long now. The next few weeks or months in the market could go in any direction so it's worth keeping an eye on and potentially adding more if we get lower prices. My 2c.
    Aug 14 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insure Your Pets And Your Portfolio With Trupanion IPO [View article]
    What the bulls see here are large short-term losses to acquire more pets that have a very positive lifetime cash flow and return over a two year period.

    But I'm with you it can be hard because you don't know when the company is going to stop "investing" and start letting more income fall to the bottom line and ultimately get returned to shareholders.
    Jul 22 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: JMP Securities Initiates Positive Coverage For GoPro [View article]
    Okay I've given this some more thought and also taken some time to look at some of the media content.

    First off I'll say yeah, it makes sense that users of this product will probably agree to automatically share content and create a media content property. That leads into a discussion of how big it can be and how much revenue it can generate.

    One important point on the "sample video" which is awesome is that it is professionally produced with multiple cameras for many scenes along with professional editing. It's inspiring, also well above what you can expect to find on average.

    Still they said some of these things about YouTube and it has reached considerable size. Lots of that content is fairly meh as well but it still works at scale.

    My initial conclusion here is that it requires a combination of more work and time to see how this turns out. May well be worth doing because the outcome could create big swings in valuation in either direction (possibly both over time.)
    Jul 21 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Acquires Citrus Lane [View article]
    Very much agree with your comments. I'm torn a little because I think CRCM has a real opportunity but management doesn't get that they are building another "walled garden" on the internet which is a proven way to *avoid* the returns to scale that come from open business models.

    The stock has come down quite a bit and maybe if management can execute they can build some value. The approach isn't right though.
    Jul 21 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattersight Is At An Inflection Point [View article]
    I suspect it's proving hard to turn this "PBR" knowledge into a working product because it's relative new and fairly complicated.

    The pilots are good but converting them to revenue seems to be taking quite some time. As long as the do convert the stock will probably work but an acceleration has yet to be seen. (So no "inflection point" yet.)
    Jul 16 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: JMP Securities Initiates Positive Coverage For GoPro [View article]
    Really? People are trying to position this as a "media company?" That's really surprising to me. That's a real stretch and helps explain the valuation. I'll poke at an IV and see where that comes out. Then this may well turn out to be a great hedge/short.
    Jul 16 09:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kubota: Global Farm Equipment Maker Flies Under The Radar, Offers Investors Considerable Upside [View article]
    I can tell you that their compact tractors are fantastic. Best in the category and taking share in the US. My local dealer can't keep them in stock. I've got my eye on one for the farm later this year...
    Jul 16 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Now An Obvious Buyout Target, And 4 Other Reasons Not To Worry About The Apple/IBM Deal [View article]
    This article was very helpful to me. I've owned BBRY since it bottomed out as a value play on MDM and agree with the analysis here.

    At this point the BBRY stock will really depend on execution and so far they've been getting their act together. Long way to go and yes they will eventually be acquired but right now it's one foot in front of the other.

    This is a great deal for Apple and I'm happy to be a long-term shareholder there. I'll keep my BBRY position too.
    Jul 16 08:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insure Your Pets And Your Portfolio With Trupanion IPO [View article]
    That data comes from the IPO presentation. I think the Sweden number is BS and is probably due to it being free or heavily subsidized.

    This is a good writeup though and does an excellent job covering the competition in this market. Also refer to http://bit.ly/1jPd48S for more info on this deal.
    Jul 16 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    The situation reminds me of an old investment quote "I'd rather own a company with mediocre management in a booming industry then a great management team in a declining one."

    Not sure who said it and it seems to presume other factors like valuation being equal but of course that's often not the case.

    As Mark points out being hedged is a good strategy. I've been short Zulily (ZU) which has been very effective.
    Jun 24 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    I initiated a small long here recently. I remain very skeptical about the industry and whether or not these companies are good investments. However I have noticed that their product line and website now look much more in line with teenage girl fashions (insofar as I know them anyway) and that is the first evidence to me that management may be on the right track.
    Jun 19 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Applied DNA Sciences: An Unique Biotech Company Targeting The Anti-Counterfeiting Market [View article]
    Sounds intriguing. Any chance you have a link to something that covers it?
    May 22 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Hum Poses Problems For Tesla [View article]
    Cars are kind of special. I don't think there is any car in existence without problems, in some cases serious ones, yet they are still loved and kept if they are good cars. Tesla is one damn good car and most if not all owners will forgive some minor issues. The car won the highest satisfaction ratings ever so I think an article like this is not very useful for either consumers or investors.
    May 19 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Applied DNA Sciences: An Unique Biotech Company Targeting The Anti-Counterfeiting Market [View article]
    The technology and the market is very intriguing. The management of this firm however is laughable, especially when it comes to finance. The CEO has no clue about how to make money. The main problem is pricing. They think they are in a trillion dollar market so can charge very little since a small portion of such a big market will add up. But it doesn't and they keep losing money.

    After awhile you'd like them to say "hey, we are still losing lots of money despite all of our "success" maybe we should reevaluate our model here?"

    In a Q&A with investors the CEO either didn't know or didn't understand his current gross margin to talk about it. Talk about a red flag.

    If these guys have done a good job on the IP side then someone may buy them out to use this technology inside a better business model.

    The only other alternative would be to hire a new CEO or a president with expertise in selling, business development and creating a profitable business. There's a ton of opportunity out there and this company has a really interesting, potentially compelling solution but they are about as effective as a wet paper bag at capturing it.

    Having said all that I own a very small position in the company based on their technology. It's basically a small long-term option on either a buyout or a new management team.

    Cheers and happy investing to all!
    May 16 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
439 Comments
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